Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Myfrotho704_]

Cmon close off I know you can do it View attachment 100530

?

 

[Webberweather53]

While the BL temps may be a touch cooler than reality (as usual), the RGEM has been the best high res model for this storm imo.

 

[Stormdoc]

This probably explains the quick column crash, imagine this south even 30-40 miles View attachment 100522

I doubt we see the low any further south, but the more closed and consolidated the low is, the further south the 850 low will be for us NC folks, with a quicker column crash.

 

[Chazwin]

Nam might come close to closing off View attachment 100529

This set up honestly reminds me of a storm in February 1999 in which areas east of the mountains were not expected to get anything more then token flakes. However the upper energy swung through in a way much like what we’ve seen modeled this morning and the column crashed very quickly. The CLT metro went from rain and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s to heavy wet snow and thunder and temperatures in the low 30s in just an hour or so. I don’t remember the exact date, but I do know that it was a snowfall record for that day in CLT that I’m pretty sure still stands… CLT ended up with around 3 inches of paste, and we were coming out of a fairly mild period

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Yessssss

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM is really lacking cold air now lol

 

[ajr]

In recent years it feels like the NAM led the way with temp issues. Not sure if relevant for this setup.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol hail

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meanwhile the 3km looks somewhat like the HRRR

 

[HSVweather]

Nam looks better for AL/MS/TN. Showing heavier precip.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Parker]

Wow at that 3k nam for Alabama. Woah

Son of a !?$&?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Meanwhile the 3km looks somewhat like the HRRR View attachment 100539

These are going to be fat fat flakes

 

[Deleted member 1449]

No idea if it's right but past experience has taught some tough lessons--NAM soundings with a pronounced warm nose, plus torchy surface, over the NW piedmont.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

No idea if it's right but past experience has taught some tough lessons--NAM soundings with a pronounced warm nose, plus torchy surface, over the NW piedmont.

I think it’s not really the sfc but just how weak the energy became as it moved over us on the 12km, it had weaker CAA in the low levels, unlike the nam 3km, stronger the system, the more backside cold air advection there is

 

[Myfrotho704_]

now this is a problem, a more amped solution and still warm

 

[Stormdoc]

I think it’s not really the sfc but just how weak the energy became as it moved over us on the 12km, it had weaker CAA in the low levels, unlike the nam 3km, stronger the system, the more backside cold air advection there is

Looked like the12K opened it up once it crossed into the Piedmont

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looked like the12K opened it up once it crossed into the Piedmont

Yep, that would ruin the whole setup

 

[DopplerWx]

I’ll take having the 3k nam on our side. Usually it is firing warning shots with temp issues. Going to be all about that band as it rolls through and when/if we get the changeover. These are usually fun to watch as you go from rain to ripping fatties.

 

[Parker]

That 3k nam was glorious, I mean that’s winter storm warning criteria for a lot of Alabama. Surely it’s off it’s rocker, but that is what winter weenie dreams are made of.