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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

Myfrotho704_ said:
I’d watch that, the RAP/HRRR led the way in showing last minute amplification trends in last jans winter storm
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Yeah let's see if the HRRR comes around to the more consolidated idea, it's been more strung out but if it joins the RAP.... oh boy
 
metwannabe said:
Don't expect these totals but I'm starting to feel good about a few of us seeing snow fly

View attachment 100499
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While I have the typical reservations about rain changing to snow in time to produce any kind of meaningful results its nice to see that versus the endless days of +20 temps.....we just need the low to trend a bit further south to lock it in. ILM to Hatteras even might do the trick, especially for you.
 
metwannabe said:
Don't expect these totals but I'm starting to feel good about a few of us seeing snow fly

View attachment 100499
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If we actually saw a death band as strong as the one shown I’m sure for the time it’s coming down we could pick up a few inches but I would think once the snow stops the snow will definitely melt itself away
 
The “given how warm” pretext from NWS RAH is a bit overstated for this time of year imo. Lowest sun angle of the year. Not like it’s March. Pretty much all of our recent accumulating snows have been right after a stretch of 60s/70s.
 
blueheronNC said:
The “given how warm” pretext from NWS RAH is a bit overstated for this time of year imo. Lowest sun angle of the year. Not like it’s March. Pretty much all of our recent accumulating snows have been right after a stretch of 60s/70s.
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While I agree this is a biiittttt different as we are literally going from 60-70 to 35 and snow in the matter of hours so the warm ground talk is certainly warranted
 
This Nam 3k track is awesome but it does not have the storm as amped so no rates overcoming etc etc etc, also the typical caveat about the NAM being to dry on the NW side yada yada yada...still have a day fir the models to sort it out, but we are on the right side of it going in expecting flakes in the air at best so it can only really bust to the good here.

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_fh52-60.gif
 
I will be thrilled just to see a couple of hours of heavy rates snow falling, always beautiful. Yes, it will be melting on contact, but if it goes for more than a couple of hours we could see brief accumulations on certain surfaces. Hopefully enough to stick to the trees.
 
blueheronNC said:
The “given how warm” pretext from NWS RAH is a bit overstated for this time of year imo. Lowest sun angle of the year. Not like it’s March. Pretty much all of our recent accumulating snows have been right after a stretch of 60s/70s.
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Yeah I mean I have seen snow stick the day after it was almost 80, but this was a long stretch of temps well above our average high even for overnight lows so our soil temps are 60 across most of the area here in the east at least.

This is the current soil temps from around NC...so I am torn on the issue this time around, the upside is if we get enough snow to overcome it then this thing went ham....

1641043340380.png
 
Stormdoc said:
I will be thrilled just to see a couple of hours of heavy rates snow falling, always beautiful. Yes, it will be melting on contact, but if it goes for more than a couple of hours we could see brief accumulations on certain surfaces. Hopefully enough to stick to the trees.
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The potential is there for this to be beautiful in the trees, if we can get a few hours of pasting like some models are depicting
 
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