Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[DopplerWx]

ATL ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I’m waiting for the “Nam looks more amped” comment

 

[WeatherNC]

It’s textbook. Southern Mid-Atlantic, which includes NC per the HPC, really just a clean hook off the VA Capes

 

[SD]

 

[LukeBarrette]

I’m waiting for the “Nam looks more amped” comment

It does, and it’s slower

 

[Ron Burgundy]

man this setup really interests me with that comma head/deformation zone, shows up nicely on the euro, that’s what I’m banking on here and what many should watch, with a strengthening and formidable 1000/999mb mid latitude cyclo

2-3" for the Atlanta metro ? Wow.

I wouldn’t consider Carrollton to be ATL metro. But I do like the trends.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

@Myfrotho704_ those big thunderstorms that develop around wake on the HRRR does it look like possible hailers in those or anything like that? They looked intense low key

 

[SD]

I mean, it's stil showing snow here, so take it as a win.

Yeah hrrr would be fine with me. A decent rain event then daytime snow

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

I wouldn’t consider Carrollton to be ATL metro. But I do like the trends.

Carrollton to Dallas to Canton looks like a possibility.

 

[Stephenb888]

With these Trends I think tomorrow even the upstate will be in the ballgame. The dynamics of this thing is insane

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk

Told you.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

HRRR even picking up on some lightning in this deformation band … I’ve seen thundersnow twice in my life and there’s nothing like the experience of that heavy snowfall .. I’ll see if I can post a video of the rates I saw with last years

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Myfrotho704_ those big thunderstorms that develop around wake on the HRRR does it look like possible hailers in those or anything like that? They looked intense low key

Honestly that’s a look that could support a elevated supercell or 2, at least would be some pretty strong elevated thunderstorms with this look with a hail threat, hard to find a uncontaminated sounding tho in that mess

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Carrollton to Dallas to Canton looks like a possibility.

That sounds right because I’m about 10 miles on the wrong side of it.

 

[Weatherlover92]

I wouldn’t consider Carrollton to be ATL metro. But I do like the trends.

2m temps on 00z NAM (12km model) is significantly colder Sunday morning. Around 9am it's 57 here, 18z NAM it was still 66 at the same timeframe. I think this is the first NAM run in sometime where it keeps us in the 50s tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. Whether we see a flake here or not I don't care, I'm beyond ready for winter-like temps to return. The sooner the better so I hope the quicker cooldown post-frontal passage is right.

 

[packfan98]

NAM looking juiced!

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m waiting for the “Nam looks more amped” comment

It is

 

[LukeBarrette]

Honestly that’s a look that could support a elevated supercell or 2, at least would be some pretty strong elevated thunderstorms with this look with a hail threat, hard to find a uncontaminated sounding tho in that messView attachment 100895View attachment 100896View attachment 100897

Could be thunder snow with that band in va

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam more cutoff/more amped

 

[Stormlover]

nam buries us

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Way more juiced, I wonder why this model has went away from amplification so much it used to be the model that showed amped problems/warm noses

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Could be thunder snow with that band in va

I have zero meteorological basis for saying this but the dynamics of this system gives me Suoerstorm ‘93 vibes, albeit at a much smaller scale.

 

[cd2play]

I don't know if the computer models are ever going to make up their minds on this one. This may be one of those "nowcast" events.

 

[Webberweather53]

Probably more likely to see thundersleet and graupel than snow on the backend in NC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably more likely to see thundersleet and graupel than snow on the backend in NC.

I’m so down bad that I would take that

 

[Ollie Williams]

Probably more likely to see thundersleet and graupel than snow on the backend in NC.

I think you need to create a forecast map of your thoughts. You’ve been right on so far.

 

[Snownut]

Why am I getting the feeling of March 93? This sure has that feeling to it for alit of folks. Temps in 70s then crash and Snowing Within 6hrs.

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[Myfrotho704_]

This looks far more realistic

 

[DadOfJax]

nam buries us

Not even close to being done in northeast AL at that point. Sitting in the sweet spot in Etowah!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[LukeBarrette]

NAM plays catch up ??

 

[Ollie Williams]

This looks far more realistic View attachment 100900

I don’t know if I would call it realistic, but certainly puts me in a much more favorable position. I would like to see this trend continue with the other 00z models. May just be an outlier.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I don’t know if I would call it realistic, but certainly puts me in a much more favorable position. I would like to see this trend continue with the other 00z models. May just be an outlier.

I mean more realistic, as in more amped, the NAM has been the outlier by itself until now

 

[lexxnchloe]

View attachment 100891

Wont take much of a south move to be really big in NC.

This looks far more realistic View attachment 100900

Thats why im saying a little more south and lots in NC get a big one.

 

[Chandler]

 

[Ollie Williams]

3K looks like the HRRR

 

[TheBatman]

nam buries us

Please verify for us. Also, will be a lot of black ice on the overpass with temps crashing mid-upper 20’s.

 

[Webberweather53]

I think you need to create a forecast map of your thoughts. You’ve been right on so far.

I hope I get time between now and late tomorrow. If I do one it wouldn’t be til tomorrow evening.

 

[JLL1973]

Nam brings the goods to northeast mississippi

 

[brendan123]

The R/S line cuts my county in half on the NAM for more than half of the event, guess what side I'm on lol

 

[Chandler]

This is looking nice for Alabama/ms/tn