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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
The Euro/EPS will likely come NW but it's not going to flop back & forth like other guidance. It's the more mature super adult model out of all of them. If it's going to come NW, it's going to be in small ticks not bounce around 100s of miles inside 100 hours.
I think we’ll start to see it start by 00z tonight.
Warmer trend overall seen on the GEFS. 
I would caution anyone cola east to not throw in the towel just bc western posters are cliff diving. This still is a pretty solid setup for snow for eastern Carolina’s.
If the GFS/NAM-adjacent precip scenario does not unfold I would 100% be sweating temperatures in the eastern piedmont/coastal plain
UKMet
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Ukie precip is fine for many areas.
But temps temps temps.
Just looking briefly, two spots in Georgia are like 5 degrees warmer than the GFS run that worked and put down a couple inches of snow.
But temps temps temps.
Just looking briefly, two spots in Georgia are like 5 degrees warmer than the GFS run that worked and put down a couple inches of snow.
Bigedd09
Member
Brandon10
Member
UKMET track is perfect for eastern nc snow..temperatures not.
fwiw i did think we would endure a pain cycle or two. we always do. we saw modest improvements at this stage last year with our storms and i think we will see that again. as a reminder i endured a few euro and euro ensemble blanks at this range last year in richmond for storms that gave me warning criteria snowfall. they're good but i do think they can get too dry
ducketta27
Member
If the Euro holds its cold… still in business for most of the board. If the Euro starts the NW trend now (therefore warmer)… most of the board not going to score
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
What does budget cuts have to do with the current GFS performance? It's been spitting out crap since it was the AVN model. It's the programmers who have programed it and continuously update it. Not the Ben Franklins. Thing has been paid for. Gets same data points ingested as everything else.
The 6z AIFS-Ens and WeatherNext2 — the best models in the world — both have similar forecasts: no big snow event anywhere in this board. 
I'd imagine those warmer temps on the North & West fringes are due to lack of precip.
Earlier the models had those places N of 85 wet bulbing down to around freezing,
Give or take a few degrees.
If the models sense there's no precip,
Then they'll stop the diabetic process of lowering those temps.
Unfortunately those of us in the foothills of the Carolinas seem to be in the ultimate screw zone the last 5-7 years.
If this ends up being a storm that hits the Central or Eastern Carolinas it'll be a huge kick in the gonads.
I hope we all get something but if we aren't I pray that those South & East of me get something.
Earlier the models had those places N of 85 wet bulbing down to around freezing,
Give or take a few degrees.
If the models sense there's no precip,
Then they'll stop the diabetic process of lowering those temps.
Unfortunately those of us in the foothills of the Carolinas seem to be in the ultimate screw zone the last 5-7 years.
If this ends up being a storm that hits the Central or Eastern Carolinas it'll be a huge kick in the gonads.
I hope we all get something but if we aren't I pray that those South & East of me get something.
Mahomeless
Member
That is probably the least likely area for snow in all of this due to BL issues.
Seems like he is going towards the lack of precip now, by no means am I speaking for him but the trends don’t lie, we have been moisture starved for the longest time! I’m not giving up but I’m going towards par!
I'm worried about the cold air feed for this storm too. It's deja vu all over again when it comes to the rain/snow line setting up shop over Wake County. This old timer has seen so many storms where this is the case.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nowhere near as suppressed as the GRAF, just too dang warm
bncho
Member
I'm starting to think it might be hard to get accumulating snow for most of y'all east of the Appalachians, unless you're in VA.
HailCore
Member
Latest Euro AI looks to have shifted everything a bit west, including precip and unfortunately cold temperatures
a not insignifcant NW shift from the EC AIFS
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Good to see from the world class model
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That's a pretty big jump NW....
packfan98
Moderator
For sure. Seems like models are converging. Too bad the boundary layer isn't colder.
Don't get too excited:
But like I said a few days ago, the EC AI 2m's run too warm at night usually. Tends to be 2-5F
But like I said a few days ago, the EC AI 2m's run too warm at night usually. Tends to be 2-5F
its predominantly rain either way
What is pretty funny when you think about it, if you were a pro met 30 years ago making a 3 day forecast for this exact scenario, your forecast would look just almost identical to a forecast from a pro met today making the same forecast.
As modeled yes, but if 2m's are a bit warm like usual, that can make a difference in a dynamic cooling scenario
HailCore
Member
The cooler temperatures always look kind of smoothed out like an ensemble which usually makes them a bit warmer.
rburrel2
Member
The AI models were right, but that doesn't mean a stronger than modeled fronto band won't streak across the northern edge of lift at go time and drop .2-.3 of liquid. We've seen it happen numerous times in the past... and not show up on modeling until it's developing on radar in real time.
I'm not saying it'll happen, but i'm saying it can still happen.
I'm not saying it'll happen, but i'm saying it can still happen.
Precip moved west 50-100 miles either way
I was able to find an old NAM trend gif from a few days before the December 2017 snow. Not an exact carbon copy for sure, but there are some similarities with this upcoming system. Ours isn't digging quite as much into Mexico to this point
Current set up
Current set up
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not too surprised.
The tried and true philosophy of leaning towards a given solution based on actual dynamics at play (warm advection aloft, isentropic upglide, etc.) almost always trumps the idea of favoring a solution because one set of models is bad and others are “good”
It's cold enough aloft even to CAE, but the surface temps go up with the NW shift of the moisture... so yeh. 
packfan98
Moderator
Early Euro frames look to be juiced up too. We need the precip, regardless of type.