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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

AIFS Euro snow map.
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rburrel2 said:
I can't remember... did December 2017 surprise people on the northern fringe at go time? Like were there some people expecting nothing who got accumulations?
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We went from 1-2 to 2-5+ after it started snowing. ARCC got over a foot south of me and was looking at 2-4 forecasted
 
rburrel2 said:
The AI models were right, but that doesn't mean a stronger than modeled fronto band won't streak across the northern edge of lift at go time and drop .2-.3 of liquid. We've seen it happen numerous times in the past... and not show up on modeling until it's developing on radar in real time.

I'm not saying it'll happen, but i'm saying it can still happen.
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I posted this last night. The AI trend of the rain yesterday. Food for thought.

ec-aifs_apcpn24_us_fh54_trend(1).gif
 
The OP Euro staying dry still gives me some pause.

EC-AI ticking wetter isn't super surprising, feel like you can't expect much from it when you start to get down and dirty with more nuanced features
 
The Euro did seem as if it shifted west for me initially, but now on the 78 hr frame, I'd say it's shifted to the East for the Carolinas by about 50 miles.
 
Let see who wins this...or they just blend over the next couple of days

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The Ukmet from 12z. Head to seagrove NC if accumulating snow is your thing. The European physics family still isn't gung ho on this event. They got the cold feet about 48 hours back and haven't waivered

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maxwx said:
anyone have thoughts on Atlanta seeing much of anything
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Well you would need a 200 mile NW shift to get into the meat of the precip on the Euro. It's inside day 3 now...that's asking alot but it wants to snow in Atlanta these days so just maybe.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-precip_24hr_inch-8795200.png
 
maxwx said:
anyone have thoughts on Atlanta seeing much of anything
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I’m still thinking the chance of snow in Atlanta is extremely low. Gfs/gefs trending away from their previously snowy forecasts has solidified that for me.

It’s interesting to see the 12z deterministic AIFS have a NW shift, but would like to see support from AIFS-ENS & the conventional ECMWF suite as well.
 
bouncycorn said:
I’m still thinking the chance of snow in Atlanta is extremely low. Gfs/gefs trending away from their previously snowy forecasts has solidified that for me.

It’s interesting to see the 12z deterministic AIFS have a NW shift, but would like to see support from AIFS-ENS & the conventional ECMWF suite as well.
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Yeah it kinda feels like we need an even bigger shift this time around than last year and even then, areas in the southern half of the metro only got .75-1.5 inches of snow with much colder temperatures.
 
And I really don't like probability forecasting. I know some do, but it's basically just taking available model guidance and running it through a math equation to arrive at a number that you can slap in a "forecast".

I don't believe it's a ton more helpful to the public to say there's a 30% probability (vs 40% or 50%) of an inch of snow and a 15% probability (vs 25% or 35%) of 4" of snow on Sunday than it is to say, we're watching the chance of snow on Sunday. Right now, it's most likely that if anything falls, it will be on the low end...around an inch or two. But that could change, so stay tuned.
 
rburrel2 said:
I can't remember... did December 2017 surprise people on the northern fringe at go time? Like were there some people expecting nothing who got accumulations?
Click to expand...
Was expecting half an inch at most. 12 hours before the storm GSP triggered warnings for the foothills. Got almost 9in in Marion at my house.
 
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