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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Lol
ducketta27
Member
Definitely a possibility... if Euro and GFS meet in the middle... I don't think this is a snow storm
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I thought the GRAF was a pretty decent short range model…
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
260118/1300Z 73 36004KT 39.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1400Z 74 36005KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1500Z 75 01006KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1600Z 76 01007KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1700Z 77 01006KT 38.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1800Z 78 02005KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 36| 40| 24
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260118/1900Z 79 36008KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 0| 0|100
260118/2000Z 80 01007KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0|100
260118/2100Z 81 01008KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 0| 0|100
260118/2200Z 82 36005KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 0| 0|100
260118/2300Z 83 03004KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 0| 0|100
260119/0000Z 84 35004KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 0| 0|100
valid for the 12z NAM for KRDU
260118/1400Z 74 36005KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1500Z 75 01006KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1600Z 76 01007KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1700Z 77 01006KT 38.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
260118/1800Z 78 02005KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 36| 40| 24
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260118/1900Z 79 36008KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 0| 0|100
260118/2000Z 80 01007KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0|100
260118/2100Z 81 01008KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 0| 0|100
260118/2200Z 82 36005KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 0| 0|100
260118/2300Z 83 03004KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 0| 0|100
260119/0000Z 84 35004KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 0| 0|100
valid for the 12z NAM for KRDU
ducketta27
Member
It may be
With the initial warmer surface temps, I would expect the scenario of a rate dependent change from rain to snow, and it may snow for hours in some areas without much accumulation.
Bigedd09
Member
It’s good for like a day not 3. But still normally it overdoes precip. That’s a warning shot. Like I said we’re in a major drought and I don’t expect it to end anytime soon
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I heard it gets more reliable it gets closer.
broken025
Member
Canada too warm. Rain storm.
HailCore
Member
If I am not mistaken, I thought it did okay with the dry/snow line during the gulf blizzard at this range, but maybe I am remembering runs closer to the event
The GRAF is an excellent model and it is falling in line with other great models, while the crappy models are trending towards the great models.
The forecast for Sunday is becoming crystal clear.
anc.py
Member
That is rather unfortunate.
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I certainly couldnt have predicted the other modelling moving rapidly towards what the euro has shown
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Pretty much all of the GEFS ensembles look like they try, although some of them might be light. With this being about 3 days out, will be a pretty big fail if it's whiffing completely and yes, will make me wonder about those budget cuts...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Let’s be honest, for the last year or two, all models have sucked. Sure, one or two may be a more polished turd but it is what it is.
broken025
Member
I don’t trust GEFS ensembles here. I’ve had them all show like 8 inches of snow 24 hours from a storm and ended up getting 100% rain.
Most of the time, when all of the good models show a solution, the model that is on an island apart from the good models is out to lunch.
In this case, no model outside of the GFS family showed any snowy gfs-like outputs.
jetstream30
Member
All the models have become a best guess. Unfortunately we are heading in the wrong direction from last nights chances.
get your hands on the euro ingest data and throw it in the gfs/nam; i bet we see a different forecast than what they are showing now
ducketta27
Member
The risk of verifying a mix of the Euro and GFS would give us temp and precip problems and a big nothing burger.... at least, it seems so
You sure about that, seems to be trending drier as we get closer! I want snow as much as the next person but it’s hard to deny the pattern which is drier than advertised!
Brandon10
Member
I know we have a lot of winter left....but the so called great January is meh. Hopefully this works or something develops with MJO movement without COD
ducketta27
Member
Except, it does seem plausible that very light accumulations could occur in SE GA (at base of trough) and in NE NC in that scenario... SC tends to be dry for some reason.
mountains, dry slots from transfer, all kinds of things dry us out
Well, the GRAF uses ECMWF ingest/initial conditions.. so that’s a pretty solid demonstration there.
You’re not gonna want to abandon ship just yet. But I’d at least start looking for my life jacket 
SegTindo
Member
12z GEFS Run for today
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It might not snow but that doesn’t change the fact that the GRAF is a terrible model esp at this range
SimeonNC
Member
I'm going off of the analysis that Webber has provided over the past twenty four hours about how these setups transpire over in the Carolinas..
Also, idk if taking the GRAF at day 3 as gospel is the right idea but that's just me
I'm going to follow the NAM for the next couple of runs. From years back it seems to handle surface and upper air temps better than most other models. I can remember a few storms it won. The 12z was not very good for my area, but hoping it'll back off some.
Cbmatt2408
Member
Well it was fun watching all this while it lasted, but we split the good snows last year in LaGrange. Looks like we are headed for cold rain or nothing at all at this point. Hoping the guys to the south get a good one.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Guys, this is right where we need it to be at this range. Remember Webber telling us that the drier/east solutions make no sense. According to him, this will certainly come west. It might wait until the last 24 hours. I am glad it stopped for now.
SegTindo
Member
12z GEFS Run for today
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Wanted to note that some of the members have also backed down but there’s still some showing a bullish outcome but that’s not looking likely at the moment
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You take a look like this any winter, especially at this lead point. That looks solid to me.
Brandon10
Member
Question is: is this a trend to the drier EURO or is this a windshield wiper effect and we trend to dry and then we shift back NW within 36 hours like normal? Starting to remind me of a warmer event from last year based on that ensemble footprint
Oconeexman
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thats scary because the Giraffe was the new DGEX last winter...was terrible
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looking over the 500mb maps it simply comes down to tilt. All of the placements seem pretty close, the tilt is the fly in the ointment.
SimeonNC
Member
For the AI models, didn't someone just say either yesterday or the day before that the ai models tend to run too warm with surface temps?