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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Brandon10 said:
Question is: is this a trend to the drier EURO or is this a windshield wiper effect and we trend to dry and then we shift back NW within 36 hours like normal? Starting to remind me of a warmer event from last year based on that ensemble footprint
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The Euro/EPS will likely come NW but it's not going to flop back & forth like other guidance. It's the more mature super adult model out of all of them. If it's going to come NW, it's going to be in small ticks not bounce around 100s of miles inside 100 hours.
 
I'm curios as to why models think there won't be as much overrunning. Wasn't the airmass drier last year?
 
Ukie precip is fine for many areas.

But temps temps temps.

Just looking briefly, two spots in Georgia are like 5 degrees warmer than the GFS run that worked and put down a couple inches of snow.
 
UK has precip NW of previous runs... but also much warmer than previous runs. It basically keeps precip *only* on the "non-freezing" side of the temperature gradient -- and then pushes that gradient NW.
 
1768496120079.png

fwiw i did think we would endure a pain cycle or two. we always do. we saw modest improvements at this stage last year with our storms and i think we will see that again. as a reminder i endured a few euro and euro ensemble blanks at this range last year in richmond for storms that gave me warning criteria snowfall. they're good but i do think they can get too dry
 
If the Euro holds its cold… still in business for most of the board. If the Euro starts the NW trend now (therefore warmer)… most of the board not going to score


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Pretty much all of the GEFS ensembles look like they try, although some of them might be light. With this being about 3 days out, will be a pretty big fail if it's whiffing completely and yes, will make me wonder about those budget cuts...
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What does budget cuts have to do with the current GFS performance? It's been spitting out crap since it was the AVN model. It's the programmers who have programed it and continuously update it. Not the Ben Franklins. Thing has been paid for. Gets same data points ingested as everything else.
 
I'd imagine those warmer temps on the North & West fringes are due to lack of precip.
Earlier the models had those places N of 85 wet bulbing down to around freezing,
Give or take a few degrees.
If the models sense there's no precip,
Then they'll stop the diabetic process of lowering those temps.
Unfortunately those of us in the foothills of the Carolinas seem to be in the ultimate screw zone the last 5-7 years.
If this ends up being a storm that hits the Central or Eastern Carolinas it'll be a huge kick in the gonads.
I hope we all get something but if we aren't I pray that those South & East of me get something.
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm going off of the analysis that Webber has provided over the past twenty four hours about how these setups transpire over in the Carolinas..

Also, idk if taking the GRAF at day 3 as gospel is the right idea but that's just me
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Seems like he is going towards the lack of precip now, by no means am I speaking for him but the trends don’t lie, we have been moisture starved for the longest time! I’m not giving up but I’m going towards par!
 
TheWeatherDriver said:
A little worried about the lack of Northerly wind intensity and colder temps as this system arrives in the Carolina’s. Looks like the mix line will set up right around wake county again with a steep gradient!
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I'm worried about the cold air feed for this storm too. It's deja vu all over again when it comes to the rain/snow line setting up shop over Wake County. This old timer has seen so many storms where this is the case.
 
jackendrickwx said:
a not insignifcant NW shift from the EC AIFS
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For sure. Seems like models are converging. Too bad the boundary layer isn't colder.
1768802400-5eJE9TdkcTg.png
 
What is pretty funny when you think about it, if you were a pro met 30 years ago making a 3 day forecast for this exact scenario, your forecast would look just almost identical to a forecast from a pro met today making the same forecast.
 
The AI models were right, but that doesn't mean a stronger than modeled fronto band won't streak across the northern edge of lift at go time and drop .2-.3 of liquid. We've seen it happen numerous times in the past... and not show up on modeling until it's developing on radar in real time.

I'm not saying it'll happen, but i'm saying it can still happen.
 
I was able to find an old NAM trend gif from a few days before the December 2017 snow. Not an exact carbon copy for sure, but there are some similarities with this upcoming system. Ours isn't digging quite as much into Mexico to this point

nam 2017.gif

Current set up
d75becaa-4d16-4b4b-b4bd-e0dfa9f844b4.gif
 
jackendrickwx said:
a not insignifcant NW shift from the EC AIFS
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View attachment 183786
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Not too surprised.

The tried and true philosophy of leaning towards a given solution based on actual dynamics at play (warm advection aloft, isentropic upglide, etc.) almost always trumps the idea of favoring a solution because one set of models is bad and others are “good”
 
I think this will end up east of the GFS and slightly west of the EURO. However, the temps will prevent any significant snow in the East and even folks east of I-77 will likely be too warm and moisture starved. A cold drizzle is pretty much what I expect here in the Triad POSSIBLY ending as some light wet snow showers. While miracles do happen, I don't go around betting on one
 
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