This is the right RRFS. Still running.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
This is the right RRFS. Still running.
Bigedd09
Member
that is 6z not 12z
LongRanger
Member
It all depends on location, as with any kind of weather, Some gonna get hit and some not. Just all depends on where you're at
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That’s a great map and good discussion - very clearly communicated. Good job young blood.
HailCore
Member
I wonder what the 12Z GRAF model is going to show
iGRXY
Member
reversing 6z less amped wave and digging more
trackersacker
Member
Saw somewhere where someone said RRFS follows GFS or something?
Isn't it WeatherNext/AIFS based? So presumably similar to those?
The RRFS (like the NAM) is run off the same initial condition as the GFS
Also, the version of the RRFS available on WxBell (FV3 core) was so bad that they are running a new one off the MPAS core
GeorgiaGirl
Member
He's so far south in Alabama that he likely still got hit, but that was an insane shift by the experimental model in one run.
Went from all of the counties in western GA outside the far south getting hit to the top 3 being shut out.
iGRXY
Member
Here's the final snow map from the RRFS.
Bigedd09
Member
GFS coming in much weaker
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Brandon10
Member
Story as old as time....Synoptic operationals vs short range model war incoming.
Looking at the 6Z/12Z GFS, it looks like the NW trend may be about over for the non-Euro models. Also, the Euro trended NW through yesterday’s 18Z but not since. But with it E of others, it obviously would correct NW on future runs IF it is off.
Another southeast shift by the GFS (12z). As expected, it is continuing to fall in line with superior models. Expect the next round of GFS-based models to continue this (as the latest runs of NAM and RRFS have). 
iGRXY
Member
GFS is worst out west, unchanged in the Carolinas at 69. Will see how far west the precip shield extends.
guys, the weathernext2 (google) is in my opinion the best. it's private access, but a couple members have it. pay attention to that model's output when it's posted
iGRXY
Member
My guess is you will see these models quickly coming together in the middle here as the GFS was the farthest western outlier and the EURO is the east.
Gfs shift is prob what you want to see in Columbia and up to e nc
Brandon10
Member
Yes....seems colder due to less amping and more or a cold push
iGRXY
Member
Take this with a huge grain of salt. I don't doubt the moisture output, but I highly doubt you're going to get that much snow or that wide of a swath with temps going to struggle. Those of us closer to the mountains have the opportunity to line up the immediate cold escaping the highest elevations and precip. I would think you're going to see the cold hold up a lot more further south and east.
Bigedd09
Member
Idk I think it’s absolutely perfect for charlotte areas for a northeast trend that always happens in these kinds of storms a day or two before the storm
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One thing annoying about the AI models is how they are only at 6hr increments. I believe that’s because they are partly based on reanalysis data which is in 6hr increments. Anyway, was wondering bouncy (or others) if there will be future efforts to upgrade to 3hr etc?
Update from bouncy in Banter Thread: “Analysis data is available hourly (ERA5), so I’m sure we’ll have hourly-output AINWP models soon. The current models output with a 6hour interval because 6-hour intervals score the highest with the current model architectures used.”
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iGRXY
Member
Old run. It cut totals big time with the newest
LittleMountain
Member
Foothill and upstate crew might set the forum on fire. You’re talking folks that get snow annually going on year 3-4 of no snow.
You can see the Toccoa warm bubble showing up accross modeling and that’s never a good sign. The cold air will def be slower back east
LovingGulfLows
Member
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The GFS virtually aligns with it's AI counterpart now when it comes to the axis of heaviest precip. It's the thermals they differ though. The hope at this point for the Atlanta area is that the warm front aloft pushes further NW than modeled(not impossible honestly and happened last year).
Its probably more right than wrong with temps...but we shall see.
Mahomeless
Member
HUGE BL issues for the Carolinas on pretty much every model....it will be wild if everybody ends up with nothing.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Very difficult to argue with rock solid AIGFS and AIEuro w/ OG Euro support, considering GFS’ tendency to over amplify things… not optimistic for us NA GA folks. Funny enough we are closer to a 1/21/25 than 12/7/17 except maybe less cold air to work with
A little worried about the lack of Northerly wind intensity and colder temps as this system arrives in the Carolina’s. Looks like the mix line will set up right around wake county again with a steep gradient!
GRAF is bone-dry
Fairly typical for cold rains here in central NC....one of RainColds rule of thumbs for successful winter events is the cold has to be in place first. We've seen this many many times...
Bigedd09
Member
Wow! That is crazy. Maybe that’s where we’re headed. I’ve been worried about precip this whole time
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