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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Temps are dropping fast here - I’m in the southeastern most part of Bartow County, just across the border from Cherokee and Cobb counties, near Acworth, GA. We’re at 38 degrees (down about 4-5 degrees in the last hour or so), east winds only about 4-9mph at the moment. Raining, but no mixing yet. Definitely concerned about those forecasted winds!
 
I wonder how long it will take to see BL temps reach freezing in the upstate. 39/31 for me; long ways from 32. Looks like 850s and 925s are below freezing (925s barely) right on the line. Gonna take some heavy rates to crash those temps without evap cooling. I always hate it when what falls can't accumulate.
 
If tomorrow ends up looking more like the fv3 than the 3k NAM, I might have something new to add to the watch list. It does seem to have LP a litter farther south. Have to be a ? and not just buy the thermals of the nam...even if I know better.
 
It is currently 43...obviously not going to get any wintry weather (why am I under a Winter Weather Advisory? the only explanation that I would have would be in case we bust low on the temps), but it shows that at times while tracking this, CAD wasn't modeled well since it can extend to here.

Like I think one GFS run had me close to the 60s for tomorrow and uhhhh...no.

I'm guessing we drop into the mid-30s and the high ends up being in the mid-40s.
 
If tomorrow ends up looking more like the fv3 than the 3k NAM, I might have something new to add to the watch list. It does seem to have LP a litter farther south. Have to be a ? and not just buy the thermals of the nam...even if I know better.
HRRR is not bad here actually, and seems likely
 
HRRR has trended warmer here last two runs for initial precip leaving me with rain. Gonna be razor thin

Yes still awfully warm in Alpharetta. We’ll get flakes on the front end but would need to get considerably colder to think it sticks.


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Figured this would be an issue. How long do y’all think it will take fore the atmosphere to saturate?
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In Woodstock ,Ga Next to Holly Springs. It stayed around 41 for several hours
. It has been a light rain. Dropped down to 39 for 45 minutes then back to 40.
 
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