Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[griteater]

I saw that. Dont need to be fighting virga during the guranteed snow time front end thump

The good storms don't care...they bring the overrunning forcing for ascent in hot and heavy

 

[NCSNOW]

WPC's latest forecast map...looks reasonable....Miller A/B Hybrid

Thats a carbon copy of Dec 2002

 

[GaWx]

Kind of surprised the NAM is so warm. Warning shot for much of N GA?

What is the warmest the 850s rise to during the rain in the ATL area on the 0Z NAM? That would tell me something about the 2M temps and whether they’re realistic.

 

[lj0109]

ICON 500MB difference from 18Z to 00Z:

 

[griteater]

GFS out to 42 looks a little better....east coast trough and our storm wave out west are closer together

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS shortwave energy out west already looks more east, stronger western ridging

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[NCSNOW]

Front Royal or Winchester was my early thoughts, Brevard / Boone too, but this should be a clean hook around Florence heading NNE and maturing rapidly through 40N.

Kiddo is at 4300ft, Boone. Id go up if not for work Mon and 6 inches of concrete back here to come to. Not to mention heavy frzng rn scenerio close by. Although think mby will be spared worst of that.

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS closed off at hour 54, was open at hour 60 last run.

 

[iGRXY]

850’s colder at 60. Definitely more SE with the progression

 

[griteater]

GFS out to hr66 doesn't look more suppressive along the east coast; however, the rollover ridging behind the wave is stronger and the wave is more positive tilt / and a touch south....so a bit better trend there

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah I like this run more, front end thump probably gonna be even better, wave slighty south, and while the TPV isn’t really trending great on the GFS, the low in the Atlantic is ticking south, which is cooling 850s via CAA

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Energy looks stronger but a touch south.

 

[superjames1992]

Wow icon is very impressive. That Low is pretty perfect for the Carolinas IMO

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Ideally, I think most of us (outside the mountains) would like to see it a good 50-100 miles offshore of SAV instead of right onshore like that, but yeah it’s not too bad of a look, but definitely one that would changeover most of us eventually.

 

[GaSnowhound]

Frontend snow going deeper and deeper into GA every run.

Yes, that’s what I’m loving! If the NAM doesn’t kill our moisture and this cold holds serve next 24 we could be in a decent spot east of Atl for once. If that wedge is as stout as advertised I think we have a good shot at seeing more sn/ip vs the zr.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

another small step south

 

[DopplerWx]

lp still pretty far north on the gfs.

 

[griteater]

Energy looks stronger but a touch south.

Yep, in the end, not much different....it was a little south, but had more amplitude on its eastern flank

 

[DopplerWx]

Casual 998mb over Columbia