Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[griteater]

I don’t understand this track in the face of such strong CAD. It doesn’t make sense to me. Is that even possible? It might just be the weenie in me, but I don’t see how the CAD wouldn’t displace the surface low further S/E?

The one thing that gives it some credence is that the wave is strong and going negative tilt....that, and given this track here, it does make sense to run the sfc low inland of the coast even with the damming. But the GFS is stronger and farther west with the wave compared to others I believe

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Plenty to work with...

 

[iGRXY]

 

[wxdaniel]

I think we are letting our imby stain our reasoning for looking at models.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GaSnowhound]

View attachment 104729
View attachment 104730

Prbly a dumb question but does this take into account ratios lost to zr/ip or is this just liquid equivalent sn at 10:1

 

[griteater]

Why is the GFS so much more bleaker with dews /damming strength

It's almost always the last to latch on to damming strength IMO

 

[WeatherNC]

Boone!!! Maybe meet Cantore for the the third time?
December 9, 2018, Boone NC. 1st meeting was Melbourne Beach FL, circa Floyd 1999. He did remember me.

 

[NCSNOW]

You can cut this in half and its still devestating. Course I dont buy gfs track, soloution

 

[iGRXY]

CAD is such a great thing to have to supply cold air east of the mountains but it is a major pain trying to watch on models leading up. You’re basically having to rely on previous CAD events to have a strong knowledge of what to expect for future ones like this storm here. Globals just aren’t very reliable due to how bad they are when dealing with CAD. We truly don’t have any idea where the snow and ice line is going to set up until we get probably closer to 24 hours from the storm. It could be anywhere from I40 to well south of I85 at this point.

 

[jrips27]

 

[accu35]

Lot of southern solutions from 0z gefs so far.

 

[MSnowAtl]

Center of the ULL now south of ATL on the ICON ?

Is this good.

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS is south and colder at 850

 

[njbarrineau]

Yikes this looks terrible for upstate Sc. Those totals stink.

I don’t buy that one with the track of the low at the moment. That looks more reminiscent of a cutter, not the hybrid A/B that looks to be evolving.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[KyloG]

GFS OP clearly has the energy dropping down from Canada quicker to help the ull go negative tilt.

 

[Arcc]

Is this good.

Yes if you like snow.

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS is actually a lot more south and looks more like a hybrid Miller A/B with the look of a Miller B quickly going away

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

Significantly more south little less amped too, interesting...

 

[Snownut]

I think the GFS is out in left Field, it's the only Model showing the L trying to cut up into that Strong a CAD. No way I'm buying that Track. I think that's why the other Models is more in line with each other and Why the Pros are leaning toward the EURO solution

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk

 

[DopplerWx]

00z vs 18z GFS ens