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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
GEFS is really picking up on a deform band forming
Yeah, 850 isotherm is a good 50 miles south from where it was at 18z
iGRXY
Member
Still going
Surface low on the GEFS barely cuts inside HSE.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
This GEFS mean about to be insane for some areas
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wow! Op on an island for sure.
I just looked at the 0Z NAM 850s and see they are in the +1.5 to +5 C range from hour 75 to the end of the run at hour 84. The +5 is at the end. Based on having looked at dozens of sleet and IP events in ATL with good wedging (with the common east winds) and steady precipitation since the 1950s, that is not plain rain. It is likely mainly sleet to start in Atlanta that changes to ZR within a few hours. The NAM has mid 30s but it should be more like high 20s to near 30-31.
The surface low going over Hatteras isn’t a bad look…would be nice to go a little further east offshore, but that sure beats it tracking over PVG…
textbook
Most of those are sub 1000mb ^
iGRXY
Member
Looking at the individual members, nearly all of them show an 85 snow storm and an I20 ice storm.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an ensemble mean as high as 8 inches for CLT more than 36 hours out.
iGRXY
Member
That is really aggressive considering we’re still 3-4 days out
So it looks like snow means are a little down in areas that had a big number last run. There’s a much wider snow footprint however.