Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Arcc]

If you take the icon track and the gfs surface temps western tenn and northern Miss get smoked


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The track of the Icon is about perfect if you want 4-6” from BHM to Huntsville. The 500mb low runs right down I20.

 

[iGRXY]

GFS is going try it’s damndest to amp up the ULL.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why is the GFS so much more bleaker with dews /damming strength

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Gonna be another backend snow for AL, GA

 

[malak05]

Yep, in the end, not much different....it was a little south, but had more amplitude on its eastern flank

I would bet considering it's just off on Temp profile and transfer the Ensembles will probably be really sweet actually

 

[Snowfan]

Why is the GFS so much more bleaker with dews /damming strength

Didn't it have problems with other CAD events?

 

[TheBatman]

lp still pretty far north on the gfs.
View attachment 104803

Give it time. Hopefully it will ease about 100 miles south.

 

[superjames1992]

Casual 998mb over Columbia
View attachment 104804

I don’t understand this track in the face of such strong CAD. It doesn’t make sense to me. Is that even possible? It might just be the weenie in me, but I don’t see how the CAD wouldn’t displace the surface low further S/E?

 

[iGRXY]

Why is the GFS so much more bleaker with dews /damming strength

GFS resolution has never been good with CAD. Even with the upgrade it’s clearly still horrid

 

[Downeastnc]

Ideally, I think most of us (outside the mountains) would like to see it a good 50-100 miles offshore of SAV instead of right onshore like that, but yeah it’s not too bad of a look, but definitely one that would changeover most of us eventually.

Yeah no matter what the models show a low that strong right up the 95 corridor is not going to work for NC east of I 77....

 

[malak05]

Gonna be another backend snow for AL, GA

Yeah the backside event on this isn't too bad... 1-2 inches possible across AL/GA north of I-20

 

[GaSnowhound]

View attachment 104712

Ummm yeah……I’ll take this with no argument for Atl East and Northwards. Also….Dawgs may be skating down that Natty parade route?

 

[Snowfan]

GFS resolution has never been good with CAD. Even with the upgrade it’s clearly still horrid

And usually the Euro is usually better with these. GFS is just the GFS.

 

[BullCityWx]

You know, atmosphere is pretty saturated early on Saturday Afternoon.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

I don’t understand goofy…at all. The LP stops off to record at Fame Studios in one frame & then transfers over to Albany the next. Crazy stuff

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm more interested in what the GEFS is showing temp wise at this point instead of the GFS, but...there was a tiny baby step toward it being colder I think at the surface.

 

[TheBatman]

Yeah the backside event on this isn't too bad... 1-2 inches possible across AL/GA north of I-20

So close to being something more. Just needed 1-2 degrees colder. But I definitely like the trend over like 3 runs.

 

[Parker]

Would just be some silly rates

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[TheBatman]