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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Cad Wedge NC said:
Would a Met please chime in and tell us whether these HRRR runs are plausible or not. The model is sticking to it's guns and has been really consistent on that front end thump.
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Well, I honestly don't know the biases of the HRRR, but it is a high res model and I think it normally performs well. I would be cautious following its solutions exactly but the trends can't be ignored

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@Arcc you have a nice heavy band of snow forecast for your neck of the woods by the HRRR tommorow morning, you better get your coffee ready and snow sled out ?.
 
So I know that James has been calling for no travel issues. So is that still the case for Huntsville if it dumps that much?
 
HRRR still showing the changeover to rain here 2 hrs before the 3k NAM.


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snow depth 20hr 1-16-2022 HRRR.jpg

It looks like elevation is key for Alabama this time, you can see snow depth is greats to the mountains around Huntsville and NE Alabama as well as along the Cumberland plateau west to Franklin and Colbert counties at around 900+ feet in Elevation, and then as you drop in elevation towards the MS line and TN river it gives no accumulation.
 
weatherguy said:
View attachment 106291

It looks like elevation is key for Alabama this time, you can see snow depth is greats to the mountains around Huntsville and NE Alabama as well as along the Cumberland plateau west to Franklin and Colbert counties at around 900+ feet in Elevation, and then as you drop in elevation towards the MS line and TN river it gives no accumulation.
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Which model run is that? It doesn't look like the latest HRRR runs or even 3km nam.
 
ANNOUNCEMENT

Guys, the event is underway. We all like to have a good time, but please keep the one liners and pithy comebacks in Whamby. @Storm5 posted a thread yesterday stating if you had to have more than one post deleted, then you would be banned from the thread. That policy is in effect.

People want to talk about the storm, not read things like Bust or Non-event or I never get snow I hate winter snow is stupid drink beer pants annihilated.

I hope everyone gets some wintry weather. We probably have a few more of these to track, coming up over the next couple of weeks. Hopefully, we can keep things on track in here. Thanks for the help.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Snow Depth is not a good tool IMO. I've seen it bust WAY too low several times. In 2017 it had Cobb county at 2 inches and some places got over 10. It thinks a warm ground will eat everything.

Kuchera or regular are the way to go
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That's good to know, I've wondered how accurate the snow depth is on HRRR. But ground temperature aside, I know locally elevation for precip type is key many times in N. AL, just 300 feet can mean the difference between a dusting and 2 or 3+ inches of snow here, I've observed this many many times.
 
This is the furthest south the NAM has had below freezing 850's in Georgia of any recent run with the initial band. Good thing I had a 30-minute nap!

42.3 degrees. Overcast. ENE wind approximately 15mph.
nam3km_T850_seus_6.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
3km NAM has precip moving into Raleigh by 09z now! This has sped up from where we were yesterday. View attachment 106297
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Precip always and I mean always arrives earlier than progged around here, fact. Death, taxes, NW trend and precip arriving early, never fail
 
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