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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Wow, is that a 3 contour closed ULL near Memphis at hour 84 on the NAM?

View attachment 104759
Click to expand...
Thankfully much less amped than the GFS
gfs_z500a_us_16.png
 
Agreed; don't worry about snow/ice lines on the long range NAM. But, I do notice our parent High goes from a 1040 at hr 66
namconus_ref_frzn_us_46.png


to a 1034 over Eastern NY at 81

namconus_ref_frzn_us_51.png


BIG movement there, but then you see the 50/50 doing it's job at 84 with the high basically stationary.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png


That high is in a pretty good spot, maybe a tic stronger (1036) or so and a half tick West would be nice. We want the high to stay anchored as long as possible. Our Low went from roughly Mobile at 81 to Dothan at 84 - ideally we want the to track a little more East towards Jacksonville or Sav. Not a bad look though, and again, the long range NAM will change a lot.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Agreed; don't worry about snow/ice lines on the long range NAM. But, I do notice our parent High goes from a 1040 at hr 66
namconus_ref_frzn_us_46.png


to a 1034 over Eastern NY at 81

namconus_ref_frzn_us_51.png


BIG movement there, but then you see the 50/50 doing it's job at 84 with the high basically stationary.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png


That high is in a pretty good spot, maybe a tic stronger (1036) or so and a half tick West would be nice. We want the high to stay anchored as long as possible. Our Low went from roughly Mobile at 81 to Dothan at 84 - ideally we want the to track a little more East towards Jacksonville or Sav. Not a bad look though, and again, the long range NAM will change a lot.
Click to expand...
Looked like the HP slid east. Didnt want to see that.
 
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