Cary_Snow95
Member
You want the Baja low to shear the energy a bit to help flatten the wave and prevent it from amping up
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Most of that energy gets parked and we are back on deck for round two, 3-4 days after.
iGRXY
Member
We don’t want our wave amping up until it gets into the southeast
Like a magnet
tucker
Member
Am I seeing the low on the NAM all the way into Mexico now? Last run it was in NE Texas
Cary_Snow95
Member
I wouldn't look at surface reflections as much as H5. That's just where the L marker was placed. The primary energy is in Texas
No.
The algorithm that plots the map is tricky sometimes and can place an L where there is a minimum, but doesn't reflect where the storm is. The MSLP distribution is in a similar place.
Snow breaking out in n ga and upstate sc at 78
So correct me if I’m wrong but we want a less amped (more suppressed and thus weaker?) low that will head towards the gulf instead of an amped (stronger?) low that’s able to cut North? But not too suppressed to where all the precip is light or too far south right?
tucker
Member
That's what was throwing me. Thanks!
Cary_Snow95
Member
iGRXY
Member
More sheared and slightly SE at 72
Cary_Snow95
Member
Correct. We don't have to worry about to much suppression. That ship sailed long ago.
Show really getting started at 84. Doesn’t have the snow line as south as the euro, up n of clt but ice down to cola.
Broken024
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Atlanta is too warm on the NAM, rain
Cary_Snow95
Member
Low sitting down on the Pan Handle at 84. Much further south compared to the GFS
This will be the most significant Eastern US winter storm season to date. Sharp hook around central GA through inshore Delmarva. Please plan accordingly.
Avalanche
Member
The NE HP looks further east.