I just looked it up and I also see that we now have a +PNA, and both the AO and NAO go into negative values on the 15th. Phase 8 into COD, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO… it makes sense that a widespread major winter storm is forecasted for the southeast
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Prepare and hunker down. Hospitals are full. Don’t slip and fall on ice. Stay home. Clean storm drains and weak trees in advance. Drive on roads when they are treated to help bond it to the roads.
iGRXY
Member
Nam is more sheared at 33
Also a larger jump east.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Roof caving fatties, power line collapsing ZR, roller skating rink cementing IP, tree whipping wind, it’s all coming folks
Look at the difference in the energy over the past 24hrs on the nam. Just shows the volatility with it not being sampled well.iGRXY
Member
We’re also slowing down our first wave as well. That’s very good news
I’m just waiting to here Robert at WX South write…” there will be sheets of ice falling from the sky”
iGRXY
Member
The NAM is showing a taller ridge at 36 with the wave definitely sheared out more. That little tid bit about the GFS not handling the taller western ridge looks to be a big issue in its evolution.
NCSNOW
Member
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Eps mean and control keeps ticking up. 6+ solid now mby.
We use to use a rule on phased ns and ss miller A scenerios that we never wanted it to close off till after it reached the Mississippi River down along Gulf coast. Reason was better chance to keep it up along SE coast, not inland coastal plain.
Cant use that rule here. But you see why you root for that if theres ever a pure miller A from a phasing of NS and SS energy.
Seeing this backside changeover back to snow on everything east of apps. Cant remember last time thats ever happened in NC
We use to use a rule on phased ns and ss miller A scenerios that we never wanted it to close off till after it reached the Mississippi River down along Gulf coast. Reason was better chance to keep it up along SE coast, not inland coastal plain.
Cant use that rule here. But you see why you root for that if theres ever a pure miller A from a phasing of NS and SS energy.
Seeing this backside changeover back to snow on everything east of apps. Cant remember last time thats ever happened in NC
February 2014 had that changeover back to snow for the western half of the state and many areas along the I-77 corridor from Charlotte north got absolutely plastered by it. January 2016 did though on a much smaller scale as well.
Friday system off the EC is our 50/50 displaced south of the typical MA position.
iGRXY
Member
NAM is pretty Far East at 45. Popping a weaker surface low further into east Texas this run
Cary_Snow95
Member
He's referring to the shortwave entering the PNW
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Definitely less amped and sheared so far. TPV is also further west so far
iGRXY
Member
NAM is looking even better so far. 850’s a little further south at 51 as well.
Really classic look for the east coast, late Baja injection but that’s what we want, balancing act.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Energy is feeling quite the tug from the Baja cutoff. Notice the comma tail streamer forming. That's new
What happens with the Baja. Does that help us out??