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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Jessy89 said:
My thoughts on the front in thump. I think the hrrr is on to something however I’m not buying the high high totals in upstate. I think 2-3 maybe 4 inches is a good prediction north of 85. Because when this snow falls it’s gonna stick right away. Even if it’s snow for only 3 hrs could be snow longer then that. But even 3hrs it wouldn’t take that long to get 2-3 inches.


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Man, I am still skeptical.... I have seen the HRRR lose it right at verification time. However, I will say it has been trending this way all day long. Maybe it does have the right idea. I recall it being right on some other marginal situations. If it is right, NWS/GSP will have to scramble to increase the snow totals in many southern areas.
 
Thanks for posting this information and welcome. It's always good to read about an ultra-high-end bust whether good or bad upstream. It's not every day a weenie reads an AFD such as that! Here's to hoping this storm overperforms for all!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
The HRR is gonna have slight movements from run to run. You will drive yourself crazy overanalyzing it every hour (trust me I know from experience)
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Meh, doesn't really matter at this point....we're close to nowcasting time. I'll be looking out my window tonight and hoping I see snowflakes falling during the heaviest precip.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Man, I am still skeptical.... I have seen the HRRR lose it right at verification time. However, I will say it has been trending this way all day long. Maybe it does have the right idea. I recall it being right on some other marginal situations. If it is right, NWS/GSP will have to scramble to increase the snow totals in many southern areas.
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The thing is GSP has removed pretty much any accumulation in my Location up near Nine Times LOL. Not far from hwy 11 that is really blowing my mind!

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Gonna ride the HRRR and RGEM espeacilly to the end tonight.
Thanks Metwannabe for wind maps. I got a 54,52,56 imby.
Pray thats way off
 
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Something else to watch closely that I mentioned earlier was that above it shows sleet but that sounding is so close to snow that under heavy returns like shown above we're probably either mixing sleet and snow or all snow in reality. Got to watch that stuff closely.
 
iGRXY said:
Returns much higher down around the upstate because of the FGEN driving it compared to where Asheville is.
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So then why would locals be lowering totals? I mean seriously nothing is Showing less snow/Sleet

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So now we have a 996 at Gatlinburg at the end of the HRRR? Things keep trending stronger. I am hoping for something interesting with such strong LPs so close by.
 
Snownut said:
So then why would locals be lowering totals? I mean seriously nothing is Showing less snow/Sleet

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That I am not sure. GSP did go from no snow back to 1-2" across the upstate but that is something they may just be waiting to see if it starts to materalize.
 
iGRXY said:
That I am not sure. GSP did go from no snow back to 1-2" across the upstate but that is something they may just be waiting to see if it starts to materalize.
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It's crazy for sure I'm not far from hwy 11 and they have removed pretty much any accumulation on the point and click. Says less than 1 inch. No way that will be right

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Snownut said:
It's crazy for sure I'm not far from hwy 11 and they have removed pretty much any accumulation on the point and click. Says less than 1 inch. No way that will be right

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They're also showing a ton of ZR along 85 that I think isn't really going to materialize. Every time it looks like ice is in the forecast, the CAD turns out to be stronger than models thought and we usually switch to sleet and ZR is much less in coverage and further south. HRRR is showing that exact thing again.
 
metwannabe said:
@SD I see what you mean, stupid HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrr trying it's best get me excited for a few hours of snow in the morning

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Yeah I'm trying to not get sucked in but there certainly seems to be a window in the morning to possibly get the ground white maybe a little more
 
iGRXY said:
They're also showing a ton of ZR along 85 that I think isn't really going to materialize. Every time it looks like ice is in the forecast, the CAD turns out to be stronger than models thought and we usually switch to sleet and ZR is much less in coverage and further south. HRRR is showing that exact thing again.
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Yeah From everything models is showing up here where I'm at looks mostly Snow/Sleet with some ZR. But I could easily see us getting 4-6" up here.

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Zander98al said:
Again the HRRR is really dumping buckets of snow over central Alabama tommorow morning. Would not be shocked for a winter storm warning for portions of central Alabama. These trends are ridiculous. With these snow rates even if it's a degree or two above freezing. It's going to stick.View attachment 106228View attachment 106229
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Now that’s the creepiest model run I’ve ever seen.. 2 lows… the the center of one in north east Georgia where I am at Brasstown Valley… the other low circle is over my house!!!! What in the ham sandwich is this???
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Now that’s the creepiest model run I’ve ever seen.. 2 lows… the the center of one in north east Georgia where I am at Brasstown Valley… the other low circle is over my house!!!! What in the ham sandwich is this???
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The system is occluding(trying to stack the surface low vertically on the bottom of the upper level low)....that's how you get a double barrel low.
 
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