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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

DadOfJax said:
Wayyyyyyyyy overdone. Did this with the last event. Corrects itself pretty much at the time of verification. Memphis with 14+…..lol!!!
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Don’t the reports out of Arkansas give you pause? I mean likely overdone but not as crazy as what I would have thought earlier today.


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griteater said:
Old weather board saying is "to delay is not the way".....so faster is good!
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Was going to say the same thing on that message too. Faster precip into a colder than expected column is probably going to crank out some extra hours of snow for a lot of folks.
 
Already around 42 degrees here in the valley in northeast Birmingham at my parents house. Cold cold rain.
 
Chazwin said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the February 2014 storm, didn’t Birmingham get plastered by the ULL and models weren’t showing it until just a few hours before the event? I seem to remember tracking over on the other board and reading something about 2-4”/hr rates during that.
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Correct. The RAP was actually the only model to nail this (snowmageddon, 2014), which is why I love the short-range RAP. Unfortunately, nobody (professional Met, semi-pro Met nor wannabe Met) took the RAP seriously back in those days. The rest is weather history.
 
CLTwx said:
Interesting diatribe with Allen Huffman and Webber on Twitter. Discussing the short range models under estimating the CAD temps. Both look to update later based off the latest cooler trends. #CadWins
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I’m gonna be interested to see if GSP mentions this any during their intermediate discussion later this evening. They didn’t put in anything about the HRRR in the afternoon discussion, but the way other short range models have been moving towards it and the current obs appearing to match it, I don’t really see how it can be discarded
 
Snowflowxxl said:
sn10_acc.us_se.png

21Z RAP. Overdone no doubt but trending up
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That's a huge jump especially west end of GA
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Because this morning the bottom 10% is now the current forecast. So it would make sense to post the updated one in case things trend even icier. I won’t continue this discussion since I made my point and was already told to drop it. I just figured readers wanted to see the new 5pm maps from GSP.
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So is it your belief the new bottom 10% will be correct again? At least state your case if you do believe it as many who may lurk on this board may miss that is the bottom 10%. I’m not saying you are wrong, but state your case man.
 
Chazwin said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the February 2014 storm, didn’t Birmingham get plastered by the ULL and models weren’t showing it until just a few hours before the event? I seem to remember tracking over on the other board and reading something about 2-4”/hr rates during that.
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If you’re referring to “snowmaggedon”, we were well below freezing out of the gate. The issue was getting the moisture far enough north which we did get a good push from that morning from the Gulf which us weather weenies saw coming but the local media downplayed.

What was most egregious was the local “on air” mets didn’t really even give the heads up of the other distinct possibility that we could get that push thus when it happened it was a mess and caught many totally off guard. But again we were well below freezing the whole time in that storm so it’s a bit different from this storm.
 
Blizzard1 said:
If you’re referring to “snowmaggedon”, we were well below freezing out of the gate. The issue was getting the moisture far enough north which we did get a good push from that morning from the Gulf which us weather weenies saw coming but the local media downplayed.

What was most egregious was the local “on air” mets didn’t really even give the heads up of the other distinct possibility that we could get that push thus when it happened it was a mess and caught many totally off guard. But again we were well below freezing the whole time in that storm so it’s a bit different from this storm.
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No… I’m referring to the storm that came in a couple weeks later just before Valentine’s. I do remember the poor job local TV mets in Birmingham and Atlanta did with the late January storm, but the ULL in the February 2014 wasn’t forecast to be nearly as robust as it was for Birmingham… even on the models. As was mentioned the RAP actually caught onto to it, but was disregarded… that ULL would move up the I-85 corridor about 12 hours later and added on 8-12”+ in parts of western NC on top of what had fallen the day before
 
BufordWX said:
What a great trend in the last several Hrrr runs. These are at 1:00 AM.
Old 16z run:

New 22z run:
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Looks like temps would be between 32-34 around this time as well. Even if temps in the columns above are at 1-2 C I could see the the precip changing over to snow during some of those heavier returns

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