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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Sorry for the sloppy screenshots. Couldn’t figure out how to save the image. But this is the WPC for this weekend. I feel like this gives a pretty 64E39D38-846E-4B6A-8B05-1AA8B786A232.pnggood idea on who will be seeing the bulk of wintry weather for now. But wow. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a 30-50% chance of a winter storm in the southeast. View attachment 104288View attachment 104288
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Fairly rare winter storm with temps in the teens. Only “trend” I’m watching now is for less qpf. Miller B Transfer and too cold I bet there is some last minute swings to slightly dryer conditions..or I hope so
 
That was a worse GFS run; especially for RDU folks (then up through DC). Looks like the storm traverses close to Raleigh (warm surface temps nears 50). RAH also acknowledging the models signaling an inland path for the storm once it transferred. The only thing I can go on is the storm will get better sampling starting tonight. Lets see if we can now get a few shifts in our favor.
 
EPS/GFES seems to indicate there could be major cutoffs in the ATL area on who sees frozen precip and who doesn't. Eastern half of the metro seems more favored for potentially more snow/sleet/ice than the western half because of the CAD.
 
HKY1994 said:
93b9088a5dbf5e48004848ce8da1f9f7.jpg

6 inch probability. Huge run of the EPS for western NC


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Yall starting to make me feel guilty. But I'm holding by a hair if these trends continue.
 
FallsLake said:
That was a worse GFS run; especially for RDU folks (then up through DC). Looks like the storm traverses close to Raleigh (warm surface temps nears 50). RAH also acknowledging the models signaling an inland path for the storm once it transferred. The only thing I can go on is the storm will get better sampling starting tonight. Lets see if we can now get a few shifts in our favor.
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While I hate the trends myself, typically models don’t go one way every single run until go time, especially with 108 hours still left
 
Still a very strong CAD on that GFS run with temperatures in the low to mid 20s for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate. Yet it still wants to transfer the new low in the middle… something is wrong there. Either the CAD is being way over modeled or the location of the low once it’s transferred is off. Considering the fact that every model is holding firm on the very strong CAD, I have to think that it’s placement on the transfer is off. I still think that look on the 0z Euro is a much more realistic solution with the new low forming near Savannah…after that a track just to the east of I-95 which would likely punch temperatures above freezing along and east of Hwy 1
 
The 6z GEFS is almost identical to the 0z Euro in how it handles the transfer from the parent low to the coast. Low pressure forms close to Savannah and rides up the coast from there… that is so much more realistic than what the GFS is showing right now
 
From what I can see on free maps looks like snow mean increases for the corridor. But pay maps may be different
 
At this point, we have the GFS, euro, and CMC with an inland track (~ I-95). RDU eastward ends up switching to all rain or is all rain for the event. LOL---> I suppose we still have the Icon which runs the low up along the coast.
 
6Z GEFS has the low exiting southern Georgia and hugging the coast. It has shown a very similar solution ever since 6Z yesterday. If nothing else it has been consistent so far.
 

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Chazwin said:
The 6z GEFS is almost identical to the 0z Euro in how it handles the transfer from the parent low to the coast. Low pressure forms close to Savannah and rides up the coast from there… that is so much more realistic than what the GFS is showing right now
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Yea thats a pretty good consensus of Euro, eps, gefs and to some extent the ukie.
 
weatherguysc said:
6Z GEFS has the low exiting southern Georgia and hugging the coast. It has shown a very similar solution ever since 6Z yesterday. If nothing else it has been consistent so far.
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That track good for at least a front end thump of snow for many before going to ice


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GFS is an outlier from its ensembles, the Euro, EPS, and probably reality. It follows those, albeit on the northern edge of them, until it decides to move the surface reflection from Central Alabama to Western Tennessee and bomb it out. The GEFS for instance at 06z runs the track south of the GFS by 50 miles or so, then moves the low from Alabama to South Georgia, then off South Carolina. The GFS has it meander over Tennessee giving SW Kentucky a blizzard for 12 hours before transferring to the spot the GEFS moves it to via the southern route. Bizarre GFS run. I've seen it throw that out earlier this year. One random run it moved a low center from Asheville to Columbia SC, to Blacksburg, VA.
 
FallsLake said:
At this point, we have the GFS, euro, and CMC with an inland track (~ I-95). RDU eastward ends up switching to all rain or is all rain for the event. LOL---> I suppose we still have the Icon which runs the low up along the coast.
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I really don’t think the solutions of the Euro and GFS are comparable. The Euro still would give a good thump of snow initially to RDU before switching to sleet then ZR and then possibly to rain. The GFS solution, again develops the new low right in the middle of the CAD
 
Guys, remember we are in that timeframe of things go wonky for a few runs before they settle in… tomorrow things will start to clear up and I for one will have more confidence… remember that 3-5 day period we all question… then after that we usually find the correct solution… hang tight a little longer…. I am.
 
The nam does great In it’s range. Im looking forward to see the NAM in range


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Chazwin said:
The 6z GEFS is almost identical to the 0z Euro in how it handles the transfer from the parent low to the coast. Low pressure forms close to Savannah and rides up the coast from there… that is so much more realistic than what the GFS is showing right now
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Knew this was going to happen. It was on island with that western KY / plow through wva output. Anytime you see the gfs on an island by itself, best to ignore it.
 
I'm sticking with The euro/ukmet/eps . Pretty good cluster/consistent. See how today trends;

Heres the Eps Track. Draw a line at hr 96 frame to hr 120 frame. Most likely scenerio imo. Gefs gives this alot of weight as well. Mobile area to Morehead City.

500h_mslp.conus.png

500h_mslp.conus.png



Euro Clown: Yes this has Ice: I dont have access to sleet /frzng rn maps: But Triad is all Frozen in some fashion:

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Over an inch of qpf: This is the big take away as its all frozen in alot of areas:

qpf_acc.us_ma.png


The UKmet starts from almost the same identical spot as the EPS: Mobile vicinity:

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png


ends up about 40-50 miles futher inland with its track:
sfcwind_mslp.conus.png


This has alot of ice being counted as snow, but gives you a great idea where the frozen is :

sn10_acc.us_ma.png


Again total qpf over an inch: All frozen in alot of areas:

qpf_acc.us_ma.png
 
Arcc said:
Y’all keep grasping on the GEFS being different from the GFS, but the trend is plain as day obvious. The smoothed mean is just taking time to catch up.
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Yes that is the trend on the GEFS because you’re seeing less and less in the way of off shore tracks… I don’t believe the track will be off shore… I think the track the Euro shows makes much more sense and it’s supported by both EPS and the GEFS
 
NCSNOW said:
I'm sticking with The euro/ukmet/eps . Pretty good cluster/consistent. See how today trends;

Heres the Eps Track. Draw a line at hr 96 frame to hr 120 frame. Most likely scenerio imo. Gefs gives this alot of weight as well. Mobile area to Morehead City.

500h_mslp.conus.png

500h_mslp.conus.png



Euro Clown: Yes this has Ice: I dont have access to sleet /frzng rn maps: But Triad is all Frozen in some fashion:

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Over an inch of qpf: This is the big take away as its all frozen in alot of areas:

qpf_acc.us_ma.png


The UKmet starts from almost the same identical spot as the EPS: Mobile vicinity:

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png


ends up about 40-50 miles futher inland with its track:
sfcwind_mslp.conus.png


This has alot of ice being counted as snow, but gives you a great idea where the frozen is :

sn10_acc.us_ma.png


Again total qpf over an inch: All frozen in alot of areas:

qpf_acc.us_ma.png
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We both could be wrong but will ride together! I like the overall pattern and consensus and low track/transfer that these have consistently shown. Personally believe the cad features hang tough and don't shower out that quickly. But again could be wrong.
 
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