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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol geez cold air is no issue View attachment 103458View attachment 103459View attachment 103461View attachment 103460
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This is just insane the fact that we’re getting such alarmingly clear trends right up close to short range makes me think maybe the models are just latched onto this thing … they will see the big events sometimes and all line up and right now they are all making 1 trend consistently.. if we do get a significant winter storm I will love to see everyone’s reflection on how models handled this system
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is just insane the fact that we’re getting such alarmingly clear trends right up close to short range makes me think maybe the models are just latched onto this thing … they will see the big events sometimes and all line up and right now they are all making 1 trend consistently.. if we do get a significant winter storm I will love to see everyone’s reflection on how models handled this system
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Remember it was the GFS that caught onto that early January event before other models and largely stayed true to it. Hopefully the same here.?
 
I wonder if the models even have a clue in ratio’s yet. My guess is the models could even be downplaying accumulations a bit.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
you can see how flatter the system looks now on the EPS due to perhaps some energy issues/more suppression from the 50/50 low, I don’t care though I’d rather have the cold and flat issues then have the marginal and amped issues
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It’s a whole lot more likely for a wave to sharpen up near go time than it is for it to go flat, so I agree
 
Odds are we get a more amped wave. How many times have we gotten a more amped wave near verification that causes a dreaded warm nose? Well even with a amped wave in the final hours, it’s so cold I highly doubt we will be dealing with mixing issues, at least up towards the 85 corridor like the usual dividing line
 
This is going to sound like a big ole weenie statement but this might be one of the EXTREMELY rare times where models might be running too low on totals. Ratios with temps well into the 20’s for the entire column is going to run around 15:1 to 20:1. Models are spitting out 0.75-1” QPF totals. I think the potential to bust high on potential snow totals is really high. But that is completely based on how things are looking right now.
 
iGRXY said:
This is going to sound like a big ole weenie statement but this might be one of the EXTREMELY rare times where models might be running too low on totals. Ratios with temps well into the 20’s for the entire column is going to run around 15:1 to 20:1. Models are spitting out 0.75-1” QPF totals. I think the potential to bust high on potential snow totals is really high. But that is completely based on how things are looking right now.
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Should get a better fix on that when NAM get's in it's realistic range
 
iGRXY said:
This is going to sound like a big ole weenie statement but this might be one of the EXTREMELY rare times where models might be running too low on totals. Ratios with temps well into the 20’s for the entire column is going to run around 15:1 to 20:1. Models are spitting out 0.75-1” QPF totals. I think the potential to bust high on potential snow totals is really high. But that is completely based on how things are looking right now.
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Not too sure on that. More often it’s cold and more dry vs more snow.
 
When does everyone think the NWS will update the temps for this weekend? It looks regardless to how the snow plays out it will be colder than advertised currently.
 
jeremyt said:
When does everyone think the NWS will update the temps for this weekend? It looks regardless to how the snow plays out it will be colder than advertised currently.
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Typically GSP, Columbia, and Raleigh will stick close to climo in situation like this until timing and other details become clearer. I would think that if by Wednesday models are still showing the storm and clouds moving in by Saturday, you’ll see GSP lower Saturday highs to the low 40s and then Sunday down into the 30s for our area. They seldom ever put sun-freezing highs until within 36-48 hours before the event
 
Ever conservative KILM says..

The GFS and the ECMWF have been bouncing back and forth around
developing a wintery mix or cold rain. The GFS is the more bullish
with the wintery mix scenario, and the ECMWF has pulled back with
the winter mix to the north of the area. At this time, the
confidence for a winter mix is still low. So will hold off for now
introducing wintery mix.
 
Flotown said:
Ok just gonna ask,us in nw alabama gonna get in on this???lol
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Trends are still happening and lots of changes are gonna happen, being were still 5/6 days out. IMO, I can see parts of Bama getting in on this if trends continue. We’ll see tho!
 
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