Lol 
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Wow. Good changes I hope for SC?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Nothing like Hooters for happy hour
Ew 
Looks like a mid Atlantic hit on this run. The Low pressure system was much futher north.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Just didn’t dig as much as the NS dominated after separating back west. Looked a lot like the 12Z CMC.
SnowNiner
Member
Ok. To be fair though, Raleigh sounded more intrigued IMO. I'm used to forecast discussions more like Raleigh at this range when there's a decent model consensus.
Icon looked a lot like the Cmc
Jessy89
Member
Pretend like I didn’t see the icon waiting for gfs.
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Snownut
Member
Need a Stronger HP on icon.
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DLI4SCwx
Member
Until the wave comes onshore and ROAB gets data, we are going to see a variety of solutions on the models. At least the threat is there, nonetheless.
Yep, we’re gonna probably see a clear trend with the vort once it gets sampled around 12z Thursday
DLI4SCwx
Member
I am speaking in terms of energy coming onto the West coast. That was in reference to that.
jay.p
Member
TWC has more snow for raleigh than roxboro or the triad
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From RAH:
Forecast confidence decreases by the weekend but is looking
increasingly interesting for potential wintry precipitation. First
of all, recent model runs have trended significantly lower with
temperatures this weekend, in large part due to a stronger and
farther south surface high over SE Canada or the Northeast US, which
would act as a supply of cold air to the region. This high looks to
remain in place as it will be blocked by the aforementioned coastal
low that will be over far eastern Canada by then. Thus went a bit
below NBM for temps and decreased forecast highs to 40s on Saturday
and Sunday, with even upper-30s possible in the north, and lows
Saturday night in the mid-20s to lower-30s. Meanwhile, the 12z runs
of both the ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement on a
northern-stream wave diving SE from the Midwest on Saturday to off
the coast of South Carolina by early Sunday. Thus have chance POPs
from Saturday into early Sunday, with the best chance of
precipitation on Saturday night. If this more southerly track
occurs, temperatures look cold enough both aloft and at the surface
that frozen precipitation is possible, and introduced rain or snow
to the wx grids during this period. However, models have not shown
run-to-run consistency with this system yet so confidence remains
low. A return to dry weather but continued below-normal temperatures
are expected on Monday.
Forecast confidence decreases by the weekend but is looking
increasingly interesting for potential wintry precipitation. First
of all, recent model runs have trended significantly lower with
temperatures this weekend, in large part due to a stronger and
farther south surface high over SE Canada or the Northeast US, which
would act as a supply of cold air to the region. This high looks to
remain in place as it will be blocked by the aforementioned coastal
low that will be over far eastern Canada by then. Thus went a bit
below NBM for temps and decreased forecast highs to 40s on Saturday
and Sunday, with even upper-30s possible in the north, and lows
Saturday night in the mid-20s to lower-30s. Meanwhile, the 12z runs
of both the ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement on a
northern-stream wave diving SE from the Midwest on Saturday to off
the coast of South Carolina by early Sunday. Thus have chance POPs
from Saturday into early Sunday, with the best chance of
precipitation on Saturday night. If this more southerly track
occurs, temperatures look cold enough both aloft and at the surface
that frozen precipitation is possible, and introduced rain or snow
to the wx grids during this period. However, models have not shown
run-to-run consistency with this system yet so confidence remains
low. A return to dry weather but continued below-normal temperatures
are expected on Monday.
iGRXY
Member
Don't expect every run to have a storm for your area on the globals. Ensembles look great and until Wednesday night or Thursday, we are going to see back n forth swings.
Broken024
Member
Yea those EPS panels basically said anything can happen at this point.