iGRXY
Member
Really nice to see the colder push at the end of the NAM.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Really nice to see the colder push at the end of the NAM.
Yeah that was a killer run of the Euro Control. It's doing exactly what we'd want to see in terms of wave evolution.....then it's just a matter of the exact track (latitude).
Iiterally everything we want to go right at H5 on the nam Is occurring, TPV, future 50/50, energy. let’s go !! 
LickWx
Member
Those are 850s and in Celsius .
iGRXY
Member
Even with this initial wave you can see it digging further to the SW and the trough digging further south in the short range. That’s the trend so far with these systems and it looks like we’re trending that way with this system as well. This has the makings to be a really big board hit if we keep these trends going.
iGRXY
Member
ICON is up. Let’s see if we keep these great trends going.
How good is the NAM with features this far out. I know we generally don’t expect a lot of reliability from its surface maps until 48-60 hours out, but I think I’ve heard that it is good looking at H5 at the end of its run
Do we trust the ICON after two completely different runs?
No, it was really bad with last Mondays event.
Well unless it shows a foot of snow.
iGRXY
Member
Not really. Really more of a measuring stick to see if it’s following other guidance or not.
Yeah, my bad I thought 2m when I saw it without reading!
It’s like the DGEX 2.0.
iGRXY
Member
That is still the best model ever. When the models went to hell I could always fall back on a 35” DGEX run to lift my spirits.
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I knew the 2004 storm was real when the NGM had it.
SnowNiner
Member
I remember it was the first to spot the rug pull last February. Gosh that was painful ? But it's so bad it was likely only right by accident.
Look still not ideal but better then 18z at least, TPV further southwest as well 
This model is literally running in circles 
brendan123
Member
ICON looks to have trended somewhat better with surface temps
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Still that pesky warm nose NEGA and Western Upstate; I absolutely loathe that thing! One more adjustment like that colder and a lot more would be in play. Let's keep these trends going!
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Maybe just me but I don't think the ICON is worth it's bandwidth. It may have some value to look at just for trends but I wouldn't put much into specifics from it.
If there’s one thing the icon is actually sorta consistently doing, it’s strengthening the 50/50 low and brining the TPV south 
iGRXY
Member
ICON is a I40 special in NC.
iGRXY
Member
Almost dry everywhere else. But so far it is really an outlier
This TPV response has really suppressed the system the last few runs, at this point we just need to fix the energy on the icon, we have the cold above us right where we want it
JLL1973
Member
No. This is not our storm
Still feel solid on overrunning with a late coastal splurge. Thickness at this point splits NC, or along the VA boarder, areas to the SW suspect but still in play.
Crazy how a little influence from the tropospheric polar vortex at H5 can effect the pattern so much, this is probably gonna pay off in future runs
Shaggy
Member
This is key to.me. we strengthen that and the chances of a severe NW trend go down.
accu35
Member
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And why not?? This isn’t that far from something special
iGRXY
Member
GFS looks like it’s going to deliver again early on. Don’t want to count my chickens before they hatch.
Looks like the energy is digging quite a bit more, way more +PNA as well, and TPV further SE 
iGRXY
Member
Closed off over Nebraska. Incoming.
NCSNOW
Member
Futher west than 18z. Hard to beat 18z for mby. Well see, might do it here
LovingGulfLows
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This run might be massive, at least for my backyard. Taller western ridge. TPV pressing further south. Our S/W energy is digging more to the southwest.
