holy hell 
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Snow in the mid 20s…. Geez
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Ironically almost identical footprint of where the snow was on 12Z run, just this run it’s stronger and thus more precip. Much more precip.
Smoked in the lower 20s up here. That’s on some 1988 ish. Whoa.
ATLwxfan
Member
Can you imagine if that wedge is under modeled? I mean…things could really get out of hand for NGA.
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Yeah it's funny to see the Kuchera higher than the 10:1 map.
iGRXY
Member
This is all dependent on how strong our vort is coming out of Canada. The stronger the better. Stronger = more moisture and more ability to pull down cold air from the 50/50 and high pressure.
jeremyt
Member
Mecklenburg and Cabarrus cash in for my area but that would be awesome here near the Union/Anson line. Now the waiting game to see what actually happens!
Well this is the footprint for an ideal Carolinas and north Georgia snowstorm. The energy was more consolidated with a negative tilt. As long as the PV remains strong, this can only go so far NW, which is also nice.
I like how you speak of caution here. Our TPV can’t waiver much to the east.
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LovingGulfLows
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It also depends on how the SW trough is tilted. The more neutrally tilted it is coming down through the plains, the more likely it can draw in moist southwesterly winds which is crucial for additional moisture transport. Either that or just continue to hope it digs more and more.
iGRXY
Member
Even on model runs that aren’t producing snow, the TPV is in a position and has trended more favorable with the cold air feed. It’s up to our vort coming down to be strong enough and be tilted negatively enough to start cranking up the moisture and being able to tap into the cold feed
iGRXY
Member
This really is step for step with the 12z from earlier
Taken verbatim, and all else being equal if the wedge can be just a bit stronger, Atlanta would be a big hit. It sure wouldn't hurt to get that surface low on the gulf coast either.
I haven't looked at this as much as I'd like. But it seems the Euro only sucked due to being flat and not throwing up precip. It wasn't a temp problem or a north shift with the low like we usually get. As far as I'm concerned we're still dancing boys.
Man what. A. Trend.
Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a favorable trend like this for us inside 130