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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

brendan123 said:
Hampton Roads had serious flooding, within 2 feet of records, even with last week's storm (worse than Dorian). A strong low pressure like the one on the GFS would not be good news, especially if heavy snow accumulates on trees and power lines with the kind of wind a storm like that would produce. Coastal flooding on top of power outages would not be ideal
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NC-12 would cease to exist . A storm like the GFS shows would be a beating on the outer banks . I wish just once it would bomb out like the model shows . There’s some mid 70s just offshore there in the gulf stream . There’s enough juice to make it happen . Has a storm ever bombed like that recently ?
 
I think the main thing to take from this right now is there’s going to be a winter storm across the southeast. The intensity and precip type for each state is not necessarily what we should be paying attention to right now. There’s going to be a storm. Most likely it’s going to be wintry. We will have to wait for the short range models to come into range to start determining precip types. But it’s definitely looking like there’s going to be a board wide winter storm.


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Didn’t someone post something a while back about sea surface temperatures .. if this stone has a way to tap into those warm water right off the coast maybe that could be a trigger to something big like this in some way
 
iGRXY said:
Personally I think the GFS is trying to drive the LP into probably one of the strongest CADs I’ve seen in a long time. Usually a warm nose is worrisome but with the entrenched TPV located where it is with the CAD in place, I think this is something that isn’t likely.
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But if you haul in a low that strong, that’s gonna bring WAA in
 
jackendrickwx said:
But if you haul in a low that strong, that’s gonna bring WAA in
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Problem is the low isn’t likely to come that far north. That’s the point of a strong CAD. Globals routinely try and drive LP into it and that’s not happening. It will pivot around it or Miller B with a transfer to the coast.
 
IF the CAD is that strong, the low isn't going to just plow right through the middle of it. Let's not forget, the GFS isn't, shall we say, all that accurate with 6 day snowstorm placement.

Storm signal is there on the models. Pattern supports it. Cold air looks available. Overall, great news at this lead.
 
Sea Temps are running about 10F ABOVE Normal this year.. Still in the Mid-60's.. exactly 65 right on the beach... (example) They are STILL catching Black Fin Tuna and Kings with-in 10 miles of the beach.. (unheard of this time of year)
 

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NickyBGuarantee said:
Didn’t someone post something a while back about sea surface temperatures .. if this stone has a way to tap into those warm water right off the coast maybe that could be a trigger to something big like this in some way
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Yeah they are several degrees above normal in the gulf stream.


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Rain Cold said:
IF the CAD is that strong, the low isn't going to just plow right through the middle of it. Let's not forget, the GFS isn't, shall we say, all that accurate with 6 day snowstorm placement.

Storm signal is there on the models. Pattern supports it. Cold air looks available. Overall, great news at this lead.
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Only reason to be weary is if you have some ridging nudging into the southeast coast and we’re not seeing that here with that big PV in the Atlantic. This really is a great white Buffalo setup. The opportunity is there. No doubt about.
 
UKMet is way south

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