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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I could be wrong here but it seems with the 50/50 in place anchoring the high over Ontario and this being northern stream, as long as it digs deep we wouldn't have to worry about much of a nw trend. It would just be a matter of tilt and getting precip.
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That second system has potential to behind the ULL if it can dig right
 
For the wishful folks in the midlands, the reason it's not great around here is because the systems track is too far North. Upstate and NC do well because they don't have warm air advection screwing with the thermal profiles for the majority of the event. To have something like is shown for NC, the track has to go well under us and then that screws people to our North with heavier precipitation.

So, the that's the reason I'm pessimistic for CAE and have been, don't send me hate mail, thanks ?.
 
Shawn said:
For the wishful folks in the midlands, the reason it's not great around here is because the systems track is too far North. Upstate and NC do well because they don't have warm air advection screwing with the thermal profiles for the majority of the event. To have something like is shown for NC, the track has to go well under us and then that screws people to our North with heavier precipitation.

So, the that's the reason I'm pessimistic for CAE and have been, don't send me hate mail, thanks ?.
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Something like p20 (above) can make a lot of folks happy. Haven't seen a storm like that in some time (coastal plain special).
 
FallsLake said:
Something like p20 (above) can make a lot of folks happy. Haven't seen a storm like that in some time (coastal plan special).
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Yeah I think early to mid Feb 2013 was the last time I can remember that. I was stationed at Lejeune and we got a good thumping in Jacksonville.
 
Shawn said:
For the wishful folks in the midlands, the reason it's not great around here is because the systems track is too far North. Upstate and NC do well because they don't have warm air advection screwing with the thermal profiles for the majority of the event. To have something like is shown for NC, the track has to go well under us and then that screws people to our North with heavier precipitation.

So, the that's the reason I'm pessimistic for CAE and have been, don't send me hate mail, thanks ?.
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If we can get the GL to track further south, (Tampa area being ideal), we folks here in the Midlands would be golden. Maybe the TPV can move further south and help.
 
jeremyt said:
Yeah I think early to mid Feb 2013 was the last time I can remember that. I was stationed at Lejeune and we got a good thumping in Jacksonville.
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Seemed like when I was a kid living in Goldsboro, we would get more of those type storms. Way overdue. I would say anything is possible with this storm being (still) 6 days out.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I could be wrong here but it seems with the 50/50 in place anchoring the high over Ontario and this being northern stream, as long as it digs deep we wouldn't have to worry about much of a nw trend. It would just be a matter of tilt and getting precip.
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I’m glad someone else mentioned this first. I do think your right. Ultimately the key here is how much that wave digs to the west. If it’s flatter like that 12z Euro was then you just simply don’t get enough forcing for cooling the column to the surface in areas south of I-40… if it does dig then the track should be solid for a good hit for most of NC, northern SC, and at least NE GA. this could be a storm very similar to January 2018 or even a January 2003.

Edit: it’s interesting to note that even on that less than optimal 12zEuro, the 850s still looked good… just not enough forcing. This is definitely a set up where WAA is not the driving force behind the precip and that’s a good thing those of us in SE CLT metro back into the upstate
 
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DLI4SCwx said:
If we can get the GL to track further south, (Tampa area being ideal), we folks here in the Midlands would be golden. Maybe the TPV can move further south and help.
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Honestly this has the makings of being a system that could bomb out just off shore and quickly turn things over to a solid period of snow for you guys on the backend.
 
We have basically did exactly this ?
SD said:
I smell a Miller b
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Myfrotho704_ said:
As @SD said above that’s really close to a nice Miller B pattern, if we could sink that TPV further southeast where it interacts with lower heights over the ATL, then that would allow some shot at some deep cold CAD C9277136-6A7A-439F-919F-265789A4F2B9.jpeg
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DE110AED-9E1A-4E7C-9A8B-9C44EF8B613F.png83B1D572-7FF0-4556-990E-7903E5FEF643.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I could be wrong here but it seems with the 50/50 in place anchoring the high over Ontario and this being northern stream, as long as it digs deep we wouldn't have to worry about much of a nw trend. It would just be a matter of tilt and getting precip.
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Unfortunately, you are wrong here. We absolutely do have to worry about a NW trend. For some reason, models like to run suppressed in the medium to long range. The exception to the rule is when we have a bona-fide west-based -NAO. Then, you can actually make an argument for a south trend.

As is, we need to root for an under-modling of the 50/50. That's possible. But minimizing concern about a north trend is unwise, IMO.

My concerns are a flatter wave and/or a north trend over time. At least Gulf convection seems to be off the table at this time ?
 
Chazwin said:
Honestly this has the makings of being a system that could bomb out just off shore and quickly turn things over to a solid period of snow for you guys on the backend.
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Hoping somehow things can get colder (the Vortex somehow shifts futher south or something like that) and the storm track enters the coast at say Jacksoville FL,instead of around Savannah GA, so the I-20 areas have a better chance at a significant snowstorm without relaying on backend stuff. Backend snow events are highly vulnerable to busting with lower than expected snowfall amounts since the prepcipitation usually moves out quicker than modeled.
 
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