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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Rain Cold said:
Unfortunately, you are wrong here. We absolutely do have to worry about a NW trend. For some reason, models like to run suppressed in the medium to long range. The exception to the rule is when we have a bona-fide west-based -NAO. Then, you can actually make an argument for a south trend.

As is, we need to root for an under-modling of the 50/50. That's possible. But minimizing concern about a north trend is unwise, IMO.

My concerns are a flatter wave and/or a north trend over time. At least Gulf convection seems to be off the table at this time ?
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Oh it's always definitely possible if it doesn't dig and comes in too flat. Even if it digs I suppose it could Amp even more and pull slightly north some and screw us. I'm not sure if we could lose it to DC north at this point though. At least I hope we can't ?? unless of course it's so flat it doesn't dig at all and comes over the mtns in VA
 
packfan98 said:
Where's Larry? @GaWx
View attachment 103282
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packfan98 said:
Where's Larry? @GaWx
View attachment 103282
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Thanks for posting. I guess that’s for around 12Z GEFS hour 144?

The imaginary kind is usually the only wintry precip that falls here most winters though once every 10-12 years or so on average this area has actually gotten a significant wintry event. When I say significant wintry event for here, I mean, say, either ~1”+ of snow, 1/2”+ of sleet, 0.25”+ of ZR, or a combo of these. A major winter storm occurs about once every 20 or so years here. A trace+ of wintry occurs here ~every 4-5 years on average.
 
Comparison here of 18z GFS / 12z Euro / 12z UKMet when the wave is dropping down thru Missouri. Each has pretty nice shortwave ridging behind the wave thru the Dakotas. Flow is flattest there running east off NC on the UKMet as its 50/50 low is positioned farther SW. Also, the UKMet has the most interaction between the wave and the cutoff over the SW...the GFS has the least interaction. It looks like the more interaction that is present, the more positive tilt the wave wants to be.

Think as much as anything we want to see this continue to drop down along a nice track and then try to get it to amplify as much as possible without it climbing north / warmer.

The low off the east coast blocks / backs up the flow, forcing our storm wave to dig into the SE. That's probably the most important element here.

The GFS has the winning formula - no interaction between our storm wave and the wave over the SW....with the 50/50 low / E Coast low backing the flow to allow our wave to dig SE, but getting out of the way just in time to allow it to amplify and bottom out in the trough.

Zw2ppfp.gif
 
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griteater said:
Comparison here of 18z GFS / 12z Euro / 12z UKMet when the wave is dropping down thru Missouri. Each has pretty nice shortwave ridging behind the wave there thru the Dakotas. Flow is flattest there running east off NC on the UKMet as its 50/50 low is positioned farther SW. Also, the UKMet has the most interaction between the wave and the cutoff over the SW...the GFS has the least interaction. It looks like the more interaction that is present, the more positive tilt the wave wants to be.

Think as much as anything we want to see this continue to drop down along a nice track and then try to get it to amplify as much as possible without it climbing north / warmer.

The low off the east coast blocks / backs up the flow, forcing our storm wave to dig into the SE. That's probably the most important element here.

The GFS has the winning formula - no interaction between our storm wave and the wave over the SW....and the 50/50 low / E Coast low backing the flow to allow our wave to dig SE, but getting out of the way just in time to allow it to amplify and bottom out in the trough.

Zw2ppfp.gif
Click to expand...

Just as you say that, the euro has more seperation between the energy and the cutoff, energy is more in tact, and has the TPV is digging further south which would probably result in a stronger SE vortex later… EF08626A-F38C-4659-A24A-3FED00A6AEB5.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just as you say that, the euro has more seperation between the energy and the cutoff, energy is more in tact, and has the TPV is digging further south which would probably result in a stronger SE vortex later… View attachment 103436
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Yeah at first glimpse the energy didn’t look all that great but this does have more separation
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This euro run was going to be better, EPS is gonna be real interesting to see if it continues the favorable trends to more TPV interaction and more 50/50 low like the 18z euro didView attachment 103438
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Agreed. You could see the heights and orientation of the precip field that this was gonna dig much more.
 
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