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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Ollie Williams said:
I haven’t noticed it so much recently, but I know that the UKMET used to have a suppression bias.
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I used to really like the UKMet, but it seems to have become more inconsistent of late...it was terrible with one of the weak storms in the last couple years...I think last year
 
GFS Ens Mean has trended SW in each of the last 5 runs

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KyloG said:
To bad this isn't day 3 instead of day 5-6 on the GFS/CMC.

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Two operational models coming on board for a major storm within 4-5 days is a big deal, if Euro comes in with something similar we’re in business. The vort trends are happening at hr72-96 so it’s not just voodoo


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HKY1994 said:
Two operational models coming on board for a major storm within 4-5 days is a big deal, if Euro comes in with something similar we’re in business. The vort trends are happening at hr72-96 so it’s not just voodoo


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Euro already onboard. Check.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Hang on to your hats … WERE GETTING DRIFTS lol these are insane winds for down here! Here’s a look under the hood of this puppy.. oh and this is almost short range ???View attachment 103563View attachment 103564View attachment 103565View attachment 103566View attachment 103567
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Yo... I counted three pieces of energy diving into the base of the trough GFS with another northern branch vortex catching up to the system once it hits Maine. The first merger is near Texas, and the Second happens over the Carolinas. Our progressive pattern over the United States literally stops short over the Eastern 2/3rds of the nation when the lead system slows in Southeastern Canada gets blocked.

If that fourth vortex over the Great Lakes catches up earlier with the bombing storm over SC, then there's going to be a MECS or HECs from Spine of Appalachians in NW GA to Maine. Someone will probably be in a screw zone when that happens, but still get like a foot.
 
These model runs remind me of 5 days before Christmas as a kid only to find out we didn't have any money on Christmas day. I'm hoping for a miracle but probably gonna settle for a dusting. You guys are doing a great job tracking this and keep up the good work!!
 
If you were putting a Percentage on this storm actually happening across WNC, Upstate, and NE GA, Where would you put it? Percentage right now of actually happening

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Snownut said:
If you were putting a Percentage on this storm actually happening across WNC, Upstate, and NE GA, Where would you put it? Percentage right now of actually happening

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North Carolina is looking pretty darn good, Upstate too. Still not sold on the Midlands. (precip type issues)
 
Snownut said:
If you were putting a Percentage on this storm actually happening across WNC, Upstate, and NE GA, Where would you put it? Percentage right now of actually happening

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Government has us in the 10%-30% right now and they’re ultra conservative this far out unless they truly see a strong storm potential so I’d go with 40% right now. Frankly that’s as high as I’d ever go at day 5.
 
Snownut said:
If you were putting a Percentage on this storm actually happening across WNC, Upstate, and NE GA, Where would you put it? Percentage right now of actually happening

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Personally, I'd give it an 80%. It's within 5 days now, and a storm with great significance within days has a very good chance at verifying.
 
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