Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty obvious trend here to all other NWP (stronger 50/50 low/cold press/winter storm)

 

[iGRXY]

CMC is definitely colder. 850’s are all the way to Savannah at 105.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I'll take my chances with this one

There's no way that's not snow for the northern third of GA(including ATL area)...a 543dm contour that far south? That should be textbook heavy snowstorm for I-20 north.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Oh boy. That’s different

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here comes a big one boys

 

[Shaggy]

Pretty obvious trend here to all other NWP (stronger 50/50 low/cold press/winter storm)View attachment 103605View attachment 103606

Which begs the question of the extremely amped gfs run into that wedge and pressing 50/50.

 

[BullCityWx]

ICON on an island right now

Lederhosen has to be warm to wear on a desert island.

Canadian is 500 miles west at 102 at the 500MB level. Here we go.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Slight run to run differences on the ??...

 

[NCSNOW]

114 comparing the gfs an canadian, ns vort maybe 50 miles apart

Models: GDPS - Pivotal Weather

View GDPS weather model forecast map image for 500 mb Height, Vorticity in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.

www.pivotalweather.com

 

[Chandler]

Cmc with like a 200 mile south jog from 12z lol

 

[TheBatman]

Here comes a big one boys View attachment 103611View attachment 103610

Looks very GFS like.

 

[griteater]

No way to hide it, great trends today....need to keep the momentum though, long way out

 

[iGRXY]

There's no way that's not snow for the northern third of GA(including ATL area)...a 543dm contour that far south? That should be textbook heavy snowstorm for I-20 north.

That’s why I said incoming I20 crowd from the ULL placement and track. GFS wanted to go too far north in my opinion. Personally that’s a perfect tract for the northern half of SC to score a snowstorm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Beautiful

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 103613Beautiful

First one to say, "But it's all rain" gets ejected. ?

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 103613Beautiful

That should be a nice back side snow on that bad boy also. With 850’s crashing like that.

 

[Chandler]

GA folks gonna like these snow totals

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[KyloG]

GEM is hammering the ATL

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GEM with the ? building in

 

[Meteorologist1999]

View attachment 103613View attachment 103614Beautiful

I think south shifts are not over yet. You DONT want to be in bulleye this far out. Maybe Columbia SC can reel this one in.

 

[Chandler]

CAE jackpot!!

 

[griteater]

CMC is a beast with the wave....a lot like GFS

 

[LovingGulfLows]

GEM is hammering the ATLView attachment 103616

That's the look I expected from the GFS.

 

[BullCityWx]

Canadian is smoking Atlanta

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CAE jackpot!!View attachment 103619

Paging @Robert West ?

 

[Tornadocane]

On H5, CMC has the system slowing down further west of the GFS position, and, perhaps, the Northern Branch Energy over the Great Lakes will catch up with the Southern branch energy. This different from the GFS model, which had the Southern Branch Energy merging with a Northern piece that was ahead of it.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Nice. You love to see it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I love my snow in the 20s

 

[accu35]

Holy Crap

 

[Shawn]

Looks like the Canadian may have been further South with the track then even the GFS which led to higher totals in SC. Busy with server stuff so can't compare to GFS right now if anyone can verify?

 

[iGRXY]

Lots of ice along and south of 20. Still think 85 is the sweet spot all the way down to Atlanta potentially. I’d expect a potentially big ice storm along and south of 20 right now.

 

[KyloG]

Past 3 runs of the CMC...south trend....when does it stop

 

[griteater]

I think WPC is going to have to acknowledge that the world exists south of DC now in their extended model discussion write-ups

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMCE looks great ! Much colder run much as well !

 

[theblendybabe]

Curious which models handled the most recent snow the best?

 

[BufordWX]

If the 00z Euro comes in looking good we might really be in business here!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The fact that we have these gulf nukes showing up still with heavy snow into the middle of SC is encouraging. I’ll concede that.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

ATL to Athens absolutely destroyed. Perfect track for one of the biggest snowstorms in Atlanta recorded history. Of course, it probably won't happen.

 

[MSnowAtl]

Lots of ice along and south of 20. Still think 85 is the sweet spot all the way down to Atlanta potentially. I’d expect a potentially big ice storm along and south of 20 right now.

Reminds of the Feb 2014 storm...however, it was colder than what the models suggested which made it a more more sleet than freezing rain eventually going over to snow!