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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC slowly coming around in their afternoon AFD. And they bumped my POPs up from 30% to 40% and dropped my low from 34 to 32 in my latest grid update for Saturday night. #trends
As far as the weekends precip goes, the models are coming into a
better agreement on the chances and timing. Models indicate that
precip should move in Saturday early evening into the overnight
hours. This timing combined with cold temps across northern GA could
lead to some light snow accumulation across northern GA, with higher
totals in the mountain. While it`s to far out to tell how much and
where, the chance for winter weather or a wintry mix in the
northern tier of GA counties is certainly increasing. Anyone with
interests in this area should continue to monitor the forecast
for the latest updates.
As far as the weekends precip goes, the models are coming into a
better agreement on the chances and timing. Models indicate that
precip should move in Saturday early evening into the overnight
hours. This timing combined with cold temps across northern GA could
lead to some light snow accumulation across northern GA, with higher
totals in the mountain. While it`s to far out to tell how much and
where, the chance for winter weather or a wintry mix in the
northern tier of GA counties is certainly increasing. Anyone with
interests in this area should continue to monitor the forecast
for the latest updates.
Webb mentioned this earlier today on twitter. That storm was definitely an overachiever in a lot of the NC Piedmont/Foothills and SC Upstate… lots of locations that were forecasted 1-3” the day before ended up with widespread 4-7”+.
This setup could honestly be better, we have a big low off the Atlantic coast this time which gives us a dry cold feed from the start, what we’re trying to work on the most with this storm is the energy, any little trends can change this from a amped Miller A to a Miller B to a flat wave to a beefy clipper
Snownut
Member
Get in that range and I'm relying on the short range models
Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
Us.
This
Isn't as good as
They are similar and could always trend back to more amplified but there are moist advection and to a lesser extend directional issues with what the euro had. I noticed the euro had IP south of RDU but the thermals were all snow (don't have soundings) have to wonder if the Euro is picking up on the dgz not being saturated
The 50/50 just can’t lift out to quickly. It’s in a great spot now and has trended stronger. We’ve had many potential events fall apart due to 50/50 lifting out to quick.
Yes it should as modeled but if you lose the nose of the jet streak much more north what's going to drive your precip?
Last edited:
SnowNiner
Member
GSP sounds so enthused. Mood flakes for Sunday morning it seems. 
Given the uncertainty in
the track and timing of the clipper low, PoPs were kept in the
chc range Saturday thru Saturday night, drying out by early Sunday
morning. But the 12z GFS suggests the low may take a little longer
to round the base of the upper trough and result in PoPs lingering
into Sunday. The mountains would likely see most of the preicp
fall as snow, with accums possibly in the advisory range. If
a frontogenesis band could set up in the right place, perhaps
warning-criteria snow accums may fall. But there is still a lot of
uncertainty on this. To add to that, cold air in place east of the
mountains may result in some snow mixing in and/or changing over
before the precip ends early Sunday, mainly form the I-85 corridor
and north. Highs Saturday and Sunday will probably be at least
5-8 deg below normal, but possibly even colder if snow develops
during the day Saturday. Only a slight rebound is expected Sunday,
with reinforcing NWLY flow keeping below normal temps into Monday
Given the uncertainty in
the track and timing of the clipper low, PoPs were kept in the
chc range Saturday thru Saturday night, drying out by early Sunday
morning. But the 12z GFS suggests the low may take a little longer
to round the base of the upper trough and result in PoPs lingering
into Sunday. The mountains would likely see most of the preicp
fall as snow, with accums possibly in the advisory range. If
a frontogenesis band could set up in the right place, perhaps
warning-criteria snow accums may fall. But there is still a lot of
uncertainty on this. To add to that, cold air in place east of the
mountains may result in some snow mixing in and/or changing over
before the precip ends early Sunday, mainly form the I-85 corridor
and north. Highs Saturday and Sunday will probably be at least
5-8 deg below normal, but possibly even colder if snow develops
during the day Saturday. Only a slight rebound is expected Sunday,
with reinforcing NWLY flow keeping below normal temps into Monday
Conservative Rah NWS starting to bite....... dare I say it again #KOD
Forecast confidence decreases by the weekend but is looking
increasingly interesting for potential wintry precipitation. First
of all, recent model runs have trended significantly lower with
temperatures this weekend, in large part due to a stronger and
farther south surface high over SE Canada or the Northeast US, which
would act as a supply of cold air to the region. This high looks to
remain in place as it will be blocked by the aforementioned coastal
low that will be over far eastern Canada by then. Thus went a bit
below NBM for temps and decreased forecast highs to 40s on Saturday
and Sunday, with even upper-30s possible in the north, and lows
Saturday night in the mid-20s to lower-30s. Meanwhile, the 12z runs
of both the ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement on a
northern-stream wave diving SE from the Midwest on Saturday to off
the coast of South Carolina by early Sunday. Thus have chance POPs
from Saturday into early Sunday, with the best chance of
precipitation on Saturday night. If this more southerly track
occurs, temperatures look cold enough both aloft and at the surface
that frozen precipitation is possible, and introduced rain or snow
to the wx grids during this period. However, models have not shown
run-to-run consistency with this system yet so confidence remains
low. A return to dry weather but continued below-normal temperatures
are expected on Monday.
Forecast confidence decreases by the weekend but is looking
increasingly interesting for potential wintry precipitation. First
of all, recent model runs have trended significantly lower with
temperatures this weekend, in large part due to a stronger and
farther south surface high over SE Canada or the Northeast US, which
would act as a supply of cold air to the region. This high looks to
remain in place as it will be blocked by the aforementioned coastal
low that will be over far eastern Canada by then. Thus went a bit
below NBM for temps and decreased forecast highs to 40s on Saturday
and Sunday, with even upper-30s possible in the north, and lows
Saturday night in the mid-20s to lower-30s. Meanwhile, the 12z runs
of both the ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement on a
northern-stream wave diving SE from the Midwest on Saturday to off
the coast of South Carolina by early Sunday. Thus have chance POPs
from Saturday into early Sunday, with the best chance of
precipitation on Saturday night. If this more southerly track
occurs, temperatures look cold enough both aloft and at the surface
that frozen precipitation is possible, and introduced rain or snow
to the wx grids during this period. However, models have not shown
run-to-run consistency with this system yet so confidence remains
low. A return to dry weather but continued below-normal temperatures
are expected on Monday.
They'll come around as long as the trends continue. Best in the country imo. Has one of the hardest forecast areas for sure. But with the current spread anything is possible we need that baby to dig!!!GSP sounds so enthused. Mood flakes for Sunday morning it seems.
Given the uncertainty in
the track and timing of the clipper low, PoPs were kept in the
chc range Saturday thru Saturday night, drying out by early Sunday
morning. But the 12z GFS suggests the low may take a little longer
to round the base of the upper trough and result in PoPs lingering
into Sunday. The mountains would likely see most of the preicp
fall as snow, with accums possibly in the advisory range. If
a frontogenesis band could set up in the right place, perhaps
warning-criteria snow accums may fall. But there is still a lot of
uncertainty on this. To add to that, cold air in place east of the
mountains may result in some snow mixing in and/or changing over
before the precip ends early Sunday, mainly form the I-85 corridor
and north. Highs Saturday and Sunday will probably be at least
5-8 deg below normal, but possibly even colder if snow develops
during the day Saturday. Only a slight rebound is expected Sunday,
with reinforcing NWLY flow keeping below normal temps into Monday
Sounds like a typical NWS gsp discussion 5-6 days before a winter stormGSP sounds so enthused. Mood flakes for Sunday morning it seems.
Given the uncertainty in
the track and timing of the clipper low, PoPs were kept in the
chc range Saturday thru Saturday night, drying out by early Sunday
morning. But the 12z GFS suggests the low may take a little longer
to round the base of the upper trough and result in PoPs lingering
into Sunday. The mountains would likely see most of the preicp
fall as snow, with accums possibly in the advisory range. If
a frontogenesis band could set up in the right place, perhaps
warning-criteria snow accums may fall. But there is still a lot of
uncertainty on this. To add to that, cold air in place east of the
mountains may result in some snow mixing in and/or changing over
before the precip ends early Sunday, mainly form the I-85 corridor
and north. Highs Saturday and Sunday will probably be at least
5-8 deg below normal, but possibly even colder if snow develops
during the day Saturday. Only a slight rebound is expected Sunday,
with reinforcing NWLY flow keeping below normal temps into Monday
Snownut
Member
They are as conservative as they Come when it comes to winter weather which right now they should be I guessGSP sounds so enthused. Mood flakes for Sunday morning it seems.
Given the uncertainty in
the track and timing of the clipper low, PoPs were kept in the
chc range Saturday thru Saturday night, drying out by early Sunday
morning. But the 12z GFS suggests the low may take a little longer
to round the base of the upper trough and result in PoPs lingering
into Sunday. The mountains would likely see most of the preicp
fall as snow, with accums possibly in the advisory range. If
a frontogenesis band could set up in the right place, perhaps
warning-criteria snow accums may fall. But there is still a lot of
uncertainty on this. To add to that, cold air in place east of the
mountains may result in some snow mixing in and/or changing over
before the precip ends early Sunday, mainly form the I-85 corridor
and north. Highs Saturday and Sunday will probably be at least
5-8 deg below normal, but possibly even colder if snow develops
during the day Saturday. Only a slight rebound is expected Sunday,
with reinforcing NWLY flow keeping below normal temps into Monday
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Yep and the idea that any forecast office around here would say much more than that 5-6 days out is umm crazy lol.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wholesale changes on the 18Z ICON
Jessy89
Member
I think GSP is using the right wording considering it’s so uncertain. Mountains likely to see accumulating snow but upstate they be crazy to say more then flakes at this point
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bigstick10
Member
KATL:
As far as the weekends precip goes, the models are coming into a
better agreement on the chances and timing. Models indicate that
precip should move in Saturday early evening into the overnight
hours. This timing combined with cold temps across northern GA could
lead to some light snow accumulation across northern GA, with higher
totals in the mountain. While it's to far out to tell how much and
where, the chance for winter weather or a wintry mix in the
northern tier of GA counties is certainly increasing. Anyone with
interests in this area should continue to monitor the forecast
for the latest updates.
As far as the weekends precip goes, the models are coming into a
better agreement on the chances and timing. Models indicate that
precip should move in Saturday early evening into the overnight
hours. This timing combined with cold temps across northern GA could
lead to some light snow accumulation across northern GA, with higher
totals in the mountain. While it's to far out to tell how much and
where, the chance for winter weather or a wintry mix in the
northern tier of GA counties is certainly increasing. Anyone with
interests in this area should continue to monitor the forecast
for the latest updates.