Ensemble mean would likely imply at least some snow everywhere but Hilton Head.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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EPS mean has this look with 30/upper 20s… beautiful 
12z Euro Control was slower and looked warmer. Still a decent hit for the Carolinas. Signal still very much there. 
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, lots of weak sauce on that run. Mostly clippers IMO. Definitely a step back from last 2 runs.
You start talking about enhanced ratios for N NC at some point.
I see some love for Atlanta though!
You saw it in the ops today too to a degree. I would guess until this hits the roab network late Wednesday into Thursday we aren't going to see 100% agreement. There's a lot of action going on when this comes ashore in the PNW/WCan and even after it starts diving into the US with trailing energy.
Jessy89
Member
Still more models showing a good storm for a lot of people then not showing it.
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Jessy89
Member
Correct me if I’m wrong but usually the essambles hold more weight then the operational.
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Right now I would say if you’re sitting in northern NC area you got the best shot at seeing snow in all scenarios but obviously we got things to iron out here for storm number 1
At the moment I would go with something like the UK/Icon but the euro is concerning
Jessy89
Member
That's also D10 and not this system
Jessy89
Member
The 18z Gfs will be telling what does it spit out.
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Oconeexman
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I'd give ensembles more credence at this range than operational. Op runs are fun to look at and have wild swings esp at 500 which in turn gives us wild clown maps or no snow. Get to Wednesday evening and Thursday and there's a chance the operational starts nailing it down.
This is the dream. Snow is so much better at those temps than at 33 with temperatures in the 70s the day before. I want a street sticker.
SnowNiner
Member
This is the dream. Snow is so much better at those temps than at 33 with temperatures in the 70s the day before. I want a street sticker.
Agreed! I'd take a cold 1 inch street sticker rather than a 2-3 inch slush storm at this point gladly. Surface temps are my pet peeve. This storm has the early appearance of just that.
smast16
Member
