I also want to note our system is more neutral tilted than the euro. Is this due to that Low up north?
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That’s a lot of big dogs 
Avalanche
Member
You have to love it when there is more than a handful you'd cash out on.
That second system has potential to behind the ULL if it can dig right
For the wishful folks in the midlands, the reason it's not great around here is because the systems track is too far North. Upstate and NC do well because they don't have warm air advection screwing with the thermal profiles for the majority of the event. To have something like is shown for NC, the track has to go well under us and then that screws people to our North with heavier precipitation.
So, the that's the reason I'm pessimistic for CAE and have been, don't send me hate mail, thanks ?.
So, the that's the reason I'm pessimistic for CAE and have been, don't send me hate mail, thanks ?.
Something like p20 (above) can make a lot of folks happy. Haven't seen a storm like that in some time (coastal plain special).
Yeah I think early to mid Feb 2013 was the last time I can remember that. I was stationed at Lejeune and we got a good thumping in Jacksonville.
Cary_Snow95
Member
This is so similar to 01/17/18 it’s scary. That storm looked like 1-2” across NC until the day before. 18z runs of the NAM and RGEM began to close it off and tilt negative right over NC. That’s when maps jumped from 1-2 to 6-10”
If we can get the GL to track further south, (Tampa area being ideal), we folks here in the Midlands would be golden. Maybe the TPV can move further south and help.
Seemed like when I was a kid living in Goldsboro, we would get more of those type storms. Way overdue. I would say anything is possible with this storm being (still) 6 days out.
I’m glad someone else mentioned this first. I do think your right. Ultimately the key here is how much that wave digs to the west. If it’s flatter like that 12z Euro was then you just simply don’t get enough forcing for cooling the column to the surface in areas south of I-40… if it does dig then the track should be solid for a good hit for most of NC, northern SC, and at least NE GA. this could be a storm very similar to January 2018 or even a January 2003.
Edit: it’s interesting to note that even on that less than optimal 12zEuro, the 850s still looked good… just not enough forcing. This is definitely a set up where WAA is not the driving force behind the precip and that’s a good thing those of us in SE CLT metro back into the upstate
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Honestly this has the makings of being a system that could bomb out just off shore and quickly turn things over to a solid period of snow for you guys on the backend.
We have basically did exactly this ?
As @SD said above that’s really close to a nice Miller B pattern, if we could sink that TPV further southeast where it interacts with lower heights over the ATL, then that would allow some shot at some deep cold CAD
Unfortunately, you are wrong here. We absolutely do have to worry about a NW trend. For some reason, models like to run suppressed in the medium to long range. The exception to the rule is when we have a bona-fide west-based -NAO. Then, you can actually make an argument for a south trend.
As is, we need to root for an under-modling of the 50/50. That's possible. But minimizing concern about a north trend is unwise, IMO.
My concerns are a flatter wave and/or a north trend over time. At least Gulf convection seems to be off the table at this time ?
NCSNOW
Member
18z GfS Kuchera best run yet. Weird using Kuchera over 10:1 clown maps cause you get better accums.
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At this lead time?
Hoping somehow things can get colder (the Vortex somehow shifts futher south or something like that) and the storm track enters the coast at say Jacksoville FL,instead of around Savannah GA, so the I-20 areas have a better chance at a significant snowstorm without relaying on backend stuff. Backend snow events are highly vulnerable to busting with lower than expected snowfall amounts since the prepcipitation usually moves out quicker than modeled.
Clem282340
Member
Can you go to the west some so we can see upstate and Georgia
smast16
Member
With these temps and ratios it's easy to run up the totals.
Oh it's always definitely possible if it doesn't dig and comes in too flat. Even if it digs I suppose it could Amp even more and pull slightly north some and screw us. I'm not sure if we could lose it to DC north at this point though. At least I hope we can't ?? unless of course it's so flat it doesn't dig at all and comes over the mtns in VA
Icon is about the worst possible solution you could get right now
NCSNOW
Member
An inch+ of qpf with surface in mid to upper 20s. Cash me out on this one
Thanks for posting. I guess that’s for around 12Z GEFS hour 144?
The imaginary kind is usually the only wintry precip that falls here most winters though once every 10-12 years or so on average this area has actually gotten a significant wintry event. When I say significant wintry event for here, I mean, say, either ~1”+ of snow, 1/2”+ of sleet, 0.25”+ of ZR, or a combo of these. A major winter storm occurs about once every 20 or so years here. A trace+ of wintry occurs here ~every 4-5 years on average.
Jessy89
Member
Good chance the euro be back tonight in my opinion. Because the essambles earlier still had it for the most part.
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What did it do come in flat and come over the mtns like a normal clipper and hit DC? ??
It’s been a long time since I’ve been under a day 6 10-30% chance, I mean a long time, I’m sure that can apply to others
?? hopefully the Euro and GFS have a handle and this baby digs and all we have to worry about is precip.
iGRXY
Member
More ridging out west but at first glimpse the vort doesn’t look impressive on the 18z euro
Comparison here of 18z GFS / 12z Euro / 12z UKMet when the wave is dropping down thru Missouri. Each has pretty nice shortwave ridging behind the wave thru the Dakotas. Flow is flattest there running east off NC on the UKMet as its 50/50 low is positioned farther SW. Also, the UKMet has the most interaction between the wave and the cutoff over the SW...the GFS has the least interaction. It looks like the more interaction that is present, the more positive tilt the wave wants to be.
Think as much as anything we want to see this continue to drop down along a nice track and then try to get it to amplify as much as possible without it climbing north / warmer.
The low off the east coast blocks / backs up the flow, forcing our storm wave to dig into the SE. That's probably the most important element here.
The GFS has the winning formula - no interaction between our storm wave and the wave over the SW....with the 50/50 low / E Coast low backing the flow to allow our wave to dig SE, but getting out of the way just in time to allow it to amplify and bottom out in the trough.
Think as much as anything we want to see this continue to drop down along a nice track and then try to get it to amplify as much as possible without it climbing north / warmer.
The low off the east coast blocks / backs up the flow, forcing our storm wave to dig into the SE. That's probably the most important element here.
The GFS has the winning formula - no interaction between our storm wave and the wave over the SW....with the 50/50 low / E Coast low backing the flow to allow our wave to dig SE, but getting out of the way just in time to allow it to amplify and bottom out in the trough.
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iGRXY
Member
Don’t think the 18z euro is going to be all that great
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Can you compare to 12z? Or is 6z only option?
Comparison here of 18z GFS / 12z Euro / 12z UKMet when the wave is dropping down thru Missouri. Each has pretty nice shortwave ridging behind the wave there thru the Dakotas. Flow is flattest there running east off NC on the UKMet as its 50/50 low is positioned farther SW. Also, the UKMet has the most interaction between the wave and the cutoff over the SW...the GFS has the least interaction. It looks like the more interaction that is present, the more positive tilt the wave wants to be.
Think as much as anything we want to see this continue to drop down along a nice track and then try to get it to amplify as much as possible without it climbing north / warmer.
The low off the east coast blocks / backs up the flow, forcing our storm wave to dig into the SE. That's probably the most important element here.
The GFS has the winning formula - no interaction between our storm wave and the wave over the SW....and the 50/50 low / E Coast low backing the flow to allow our wave to dig SE, but getting out of the way just in time to allow it to amplify and bottom out in the trough.
Just as you say that, the euro has more seperation between the energy and the cutoff, energy is more in tact, and has the TPV is digging further south which would probably result in a stronger SE vortex later…
Yes, but this was because the low blew up off the New England coast and hammered Nova Scotia. I don’t see that continuing tonight with that strong TPV.
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iGRXY
Member
Yeah at first glimpse the energy didn’t look all that great but this does have more separation
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hour 87 of 18Z euro, our energy out west is closed off. Was previously open at hour 93 on 12Z.
This euro run was going to be better, EPS is gonna be real interesting to see if it continues the favorable trends to more TPV interaction and more 50/50 low like the 18z euro did
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Agreed. You could see the heights and orientation of the precip field that this was gonna dig much more.