holy hell 
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Snow in the mid 20s…. Geez
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Ironically almost identical footprint of where the snow was on 12Z run, just this run it’s stronger and thus more precip. Much more precip.
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Smoked in the lower 20s up here. That’s on some 1988 ish. Whoa.
ATLwxfan
Member
Can you imagine if that wedge is under modeled? I mean…things could really get out of hand for NGA.
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Yeah it's funny to see the Kuchera higher than the 10:1 map.
iGRXY
Member
This is all dependent on how strong our vort is coming out of Canada. The stronger the better. Stronger = more moisture and more ability to pull down cold air from the 50/50 and high pressure.
Mecklenburg and Cabarrus cash in for my area but that would be awesome here near the Union/Anson line. Now the waiting game to see what actually happens!
Well this is the footprint for an ideal Carolinas and north Georgia snowstorm. The energy was more consolidated with a negative tilt. As long as the PV remains strong, this can only go so far NW, which is also nice.
I like how you speak of caution here. Our TPV can’t waiver much to the east.
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LovingGulfLows
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It also depends on how the SW trough is tilted. The more neutrally tilted it is coming down through the plains, the more likely it can draw in moist southwesterly winds which is crucial for additional moisture transport. Either that or just continue to hope it digs more and more.
iGRXY
Member
Even on model runs that aren’t producing snow, the TPV is in a position and has trended more favorable with the cold air feed. It’s up to our vort coming down to be strong enough and be tilted negatively enough to start cranking up the moisture and being able to tap into the cold feed
iGRXY
Member
This really is step for step with the 12z from earlier
Taken verbatim, and all else being equal if the wedge can be just a bit stronger, Atlanta would be a big hit. It sure wouldn't hurt to get that surface low on the gulf coast either.
I haven't looked at this as much as I'd like. But it seems the Euro only sucked due to being flat and not throwing up precip. It wasn't a temp problem or a north shift with the low like we usually get. As far as I'm concerned we're still dancing boys.
Man what. A. Trend.
Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a favorable trend like this for us inside 130
Quite a few big hitters on the GEFS
packfan98
Moderator
BHS1975
Member
Nice powder too with high ratios.
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Woah big increase on the GEFS, will post when it’s done, also 
Would be nice if this was 12 hours out. We need good separation between our wave and the one behind it. That one appeared much weaker on this run. We also need the one before it to help crank that quasi-50/50 and keep the flow a little slower to allow our wave to dig more and also to help keep a northerly low level feed in here. Feels like a laundry list of things to ask for, but I guess that's why these kinds of storms are so rare. But when they do hit, man they are fun.
These waves are going to be in and out of the raob network, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some backing off at some point, followed by a comeback as we get closer.
GEFS went WAY up for NC
DadOfJax
Member
Clippers definitely aren’t the best way to get snow in the South. So many things that can go wrong, especially this far out. At least there is something to track for now….just wouldn’t be getting my hopes up for anywhere until we get a couple of days closer.
That’s a lot more members with a hit 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It went up for everyone except southern SC and S GA. Means like that even for us in N GA are good to see at this point. While a few members are behind it, I like the increase.
bro, and it’s not done 
smast16
Member
My Dream. Snowing in the 20's, with ratios in the teens. #new pants
DadOfJax
Member
Guess I may need to check Maggie Valley cabin availability just in case though…
gefs has mean temps in the 20s while it’s snowing in much of central/western NC, colder then last run
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Dat dark blue spot tho
Need to watch that, that could ruin this setup by interfering with the ridge to our west and making our system not dig as much, just something to watch for nowThe system that develops into the 50/50 is so crucial.
The low dropping down in central Canada is a monkey wrench though. ?
View attachment 103393
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Member 7 and 12, look like Feb ‘14 for the Ipstate
I could be wrong here but it seems with the 50/50 in place anchoring the high over Ontario and this being northern stream, as long as it digs deep we wouldn't have to worry about much of a nw trend. It would just be a matter of tilt and getting precip.
