Looks just like the GFS...tucks it into Delmarva....like old times Grit. It's never easy and usually rains. I blame RainCold for this.?
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
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Looks just like the GFS...tucks it into Delmarva....like old times Grit. It's never easy and usually rains. I blame RainCold for this.?
It'll be a lot worse than that once the NAM gets a hold of it
This is strange…one heck of a warm nose
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Justin Buchinsky
Member
I've seen comparisons like this a few times on here recently.. it is important not to compare an ensemble mean as a deterministic solution! The ensemble mean is NOT a forecast output and shouldn't be treated as one. Rather, there is usually clusters that ensemble members group into. It is much more useful to see how different clusters stack up over time, as ensemble means can be extraordinarily misleading.GFS verse The Gefs at Hr 96. Makes a big difference
Oh man what a pretty big jump north on the GEFS
Oconeexman
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Man thats throwback stuff there. Imagine some folks today without clown maps...lol
Honestly we're gonna see the extremes of potential here for another day or so. And then hone in on a track and strength. The consistency this far out is a rarity. Appreciate the analysis as always brother...carry on
From what i remember, this is what the 2014 storm looked a few days out. Showed a massive ice storm for SC. Then inside 36 hours, trends began to show more cold air entrenched in the CAD shifting the freezing rain threat further South and giving areas that were supposed to see a huge ice storm a ton of sleet.
Geez 
NoSnowATL
Member
I see a classic CAD ice storm set up,
Those maps come with a free pair of vintage bell bottom pants and big white belt you know
MichaelJ
Member
The trend is to go a little North and amplify more so a lot of people who were in the all snow line will now be sleet and some snow. Further east and South toward Raleigh and Greenville SC, sleet and zr will be predominate if this north push holds up, the EURO will give us a better idea if it trends towards the GFS. Remember the GFS giveth and the GFS takith away
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
GEFS seems to have more snow south
People familiar with western NC storm tracks, how comfortable would y’all be saying Maggie valley is a favorable spot to book a place and stay this weekend?
smast16
Member
So, we're losing the length of time the 50 /50 is hanging around, and allowing our high to make a beeline stage right. That's why the low is driving inland.
Huge increase on gefs incoming for NC/SC upstate
Storm5
Member
Literally everyone on the board could pick a GEFs member that works for their backyard
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Someone mentioned it yesterday but unfortunately 50/50 seemingly always move out faster than modeled
GEFS is gonna make a lot of folks happy that were upset with the Op run
Based on that how cold that ICON run was even with it’s known warm bias at this range, I give this map some validity… it’s also one of the reasons why I’m still not sold on this highly amped system the GFS is showing… I have a feeling the end result is gonna be somewhere in the middle between the GFS and EURO/UK… even if it’s closer to the GFS, I think with that strong of a CAD we could see a good bit more overrunning snowfall breakout earlier ahead of the system.. much like February 2014
I think ANYWHERE in the NC mountains will be good...
Basically, the energy is closing off sooner, slowing it down and thus allowing that to occur plus the more amped up solution more times than not trend poleward. I'm still not sold we don't see more ice, the HP getting a little stronger with a decent CAD setup, still plenty to sort out imho
Rainforrest
Member
If the gfs track holds I would stay in highlands cashiers or lake toxaway.
NCSNOW
Member
Go to Highlands/Cashiers. If you want ski,then hit up Maggie Valley, catalooche
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Hard not to get excited after that GEFS look
BelmontWX79
Member
I thinks it's more the short wave is coming in more and more amped leading to a stronger and slightly more north solutions.
It's my fault y'all, I renewed my Wxbell account, sorry but any who, this looks better
iGRXY
Member
Based on weatherbell the GEFS actually keeps most of the northern upstate snow for almost all of the members. It even keeps the central and southern upstate all snow on some members as well.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Is the GEFS worse than GFS at picking up warm nose?
iGRXY
Member
It has nothing to do with the 50/50L really. It's the fact that the SW is stronger and stronger coming down.
Jrips2710
Member
I present to you.... the panels 
NCSNOW
Member
That 12z gfs was the earliest of a close off yet,that ive seen. Why it ssw back towards kansas. Just needed it to hold its hoarses another 6hrs.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
There are going to be some monster totals on a lot of GEFS ensembles
Good to see quite a few members with the surface low along the gulf coast.
GEFS says ice as well tho.
NCSNOW
Member
This x 1000. Its great to close off deepen. Just do it a little latter.
Jon
Member
While true at face value, 99% of people don’t have access to clusters so I don’t see the problem with using the mean when comparing to the deterministic. Are you arguing there’s zero use case for that output without clustering?
packfan98
Moderator
