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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

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Yeah, that's basically February 2014, except a bit further north because that storm was a disaster where I live (which thankfully, I was somewhere else during that storm). I'll pass on the 1"+ ice, even though 30's and rain would suck.

Don't like the way the storm is amplifying and ticking NW though. Oof. Maybe I shouldn't have talked.

Maybe the Euro can be suppressed again.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I mean you aren’t going to have identical runs every 6 hours. It’s going to waffle. It’s not going to be the 10 inch north GA storm from the 6z, that’s highly unlikely.


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I agree...let's see what the Canadian, Ukmet has to stay...the GFS was overly amped to me.
 
Chandler said:
30+ inches Highlands, Cashiers: Historic Ice storm down in SC. Gonna be a major impact winter storm. Need this a little futher south. The Winds/ and long duration cold to follow are gonna make this one to rememeber.
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MAJOR SC midlands ice storm I can see this happening here before a snowstorm just saying??‍♂️
 
Please check your sounding closely. GFS says I am mixing here but the sounding is still snow.
iGRXY said:
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Yes… I just looked at mine and it’s all snow… I would guess the sleet line is just to me south towards Pageland… I have a feeling that somewhere in this there’s gonna be an area of very heavy sleet
 
Let’s see what the GEFS shows. It’s shown more flatter solutions over northern solutions the last several runs going against the GFS OP


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Don't get too caught up in panic over ice accrual predictions at this range. It's such a thin medium area of precip to forecast just how much you'll get. Plain rain or snow amounts are easier to model at this point than ice.
 
I hope the GEFS looks a lot different than what the OP is showing, for us here in the Midlands. All of that ice is scary to say the least! HP was stronger too. Just not in an ideal spot, along with the LP (for more sleet/ snow anyways).
 
Nice totals showing up for Memphis northward on the 12z. Hopefully we can see that 540 line drop further south and east. Would be great to see North MS as well as North AL getting in on this storm and some of the higher totals.
 
KyloG said:
UK over the panhandle. Blend the GFS/UK we would have something great

Not enthused with GFS showing snow all the way up into upper PA...so much for a suppressed system.


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It looks like the gfs has been bringing the LP further inland with each of the last few runs. Albeit not by much. Hate to say "northwest trend" because this is not the classic type of nw drift we see
 
I smell a sleetfest if these nw trends continue for I-40. Don't like being in the bullseye this far out.
 
CaryWx said:
Don't get too caught up in panic over ice accrual predictions at this range. It's such a thin medium area of precip to forecast just how much you'll get. Plain rain or snow amounts are easier to model at this point than ice.
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Yeah but this is a stout CAD signal. Areal coverage of ice could definitely be larger than what we would normally see. As modelled on the GFS this really reminds me of 2014. My in laws carport collapsed under the weight of snow and ice.
 
CaryWx said:
It looks like the gfs has been bringing the LP further inland with each of the last few runs. Albeit not by much. Hate to say "northwest trend" because this is not the classic type of nw drift we see
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With this look on the GEFS we would usually be buying shovels...but nowadays we should buy an umbrella.gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-mslp-2237200.png
 
Really trying to guess precip type at this point is pointless. Just be happy we have a storm with cold air in place for some kind of winter weather. Wait until we get to around hr 48-60 and begin looking at the NAM.

I am still not sure how far north that the GFS really can go because that wedge is ridiculous.
 
As was stated earlier, I would encourage everyone pull up the sounding data for your area as the surface reflection is not matching up with the soundings… at least for CLT metro back into the Upstate. The key on that run is that the CAD is stronger.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Nice totals showing up for Memphis northward on the 12z. Hopefully we can see that 540 line drop further south and east. Would be great to see North MS as well as North AL getting in on this storm and some of the higher totals.
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I think this thing would have to dig alot more and push south for us too get in on the action but then again im really surpried its trended this much in our favor
 
You know that's warm nose is undermodeled. I say we nix the amped solutions please. Id like to have SOME trees next summer., because if you warm that 825 a little more, and its doomsday ice.

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Canadian not looking so good either; based on black & white charts; lulz

but they're hard to read, so have to wait for other graphics.
 
22 inch maximum here in Roanoke. Not sure I trust that atm. Really want the southern people to score instead of me here.
 
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