I could enjoy my fantasy blizzard a whole lot more if I wasn't constantly moving banter post, c'mon y'all. Thanks
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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This is awesome, no other way to describe it, this setup is just getting colder and colder, MSLP pattern is trending better
LickWx
Member
NC-12 would cease to exist . A storm like the GFS shows would be a beating on the outer banks . I wish just once it would bomb out like the model shows . There’s some mid 70s just offshore there in the gulf stream . There’s enough juice to make it happen . Has a storm ever bombed like that recently ?
Yeah that track is worrisome though, definitely think we have a ton of mixing issue, no wiggle room for sure
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I think the main thing to take from this right now is there’s going to be a winter storm across the southeast. The intensity and precip type for each state is not necessarily what we should be paying attention to right now. There’s going to be a storm. Most likely it’s going to be wintry. We will have to wait for the short range models to come into range to start determining precip types. But it’s definitely looking like there’s going to be a board wide winter storm.
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This feels like our first legitimate big dog potential since December 2018 for the SE east of the Apps.
A bomb like that over the warm ssts would be a guaranteed stronger than modeled warm nose
Digging into the data further, 21” of snow falls in 12 hours between 12z Sunday and 00z Monday.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Well the fact that the GFS depicts a 980 monster over the coastal plane and central nc is still snow is a good sign. I would be surprised if we get something that juiced up
Didn’t someone post something a while back about sea surface temperatures .. if this stone has a way to tap into those warm water right off the coast maybe that could be a trigger to something big like this in some way
With the TPV slowing down even more in SE Canada, the analog @Ollie Williams brought up is actually looking more legit
iGRXY
Member
Personally I think the GFS is trying to drive the LP into probably one of the strongest CADs I’ve seen in a long time. Usually a warm nose is worrisome but with the entrenched TPV located where it is with the CAD in place, I think this is something that isn’t likely.
Im counting only 3 GEFS members with a very north solution
But if you haul in a low that strong, that’s gonna bring WAA in
iGRXY
Member
Problem is the low isn’t likely to come that far north. That’s the point of a strong CAD. Globals routinely try and drive LP into it and that’s not happening. It will pivot around it or Miller B with a transfer to the coast.
Looks like the GEFS has less QPF and a lower snow mean, but not really for bad reasons
IF the CAD is that strong, the low isn't going to just plow right through the middle of it. Let's not forget, the GFS isn't, shall we say, all that accurate with 6 day snowstorm placement.
Storm signal is there on the models. Pattern supports it. Cold air looks available. Overall, great news at this lead.
Storm signal is there on the models. Pattern supports it. Cold air looks available. Overall, great news at this lead.
BHS1975
Member
Would be a decade or more since we had a CAD that cold.
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Indeed. The GFS also laid down a crippling ice storm under that warm nose along the Hwy 1 corridor in NC.
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