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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

LovingGulfLows said:
Maybe JB was really onto something when he used the 93 analog....
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Honestly, this seems more like a March 2009 setup, January edition than 93. 93 was a triple phaser with the surface low moving NE from the lower Texas coast to near Augusta. If Memory serves.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Honestly, this seems more like a March 2009 setup, January edition than 93. 93 was a triple phaser with the surface low moving NE from the lower Texas coast to near Augusta. If Memory serves.
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Wasn’t the 12z Nam pushing the low towards lower Texas coast?
 
Faco Thomas said:
So this means the could on track GFS could trend SE as we get closer if the Vortex stays in the same position? This could also mean it's more likely that the Midlands of SC/Eastern NC could see huge snowfall amouts as a result of this ,correct?
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It could, but man, it is really hard to bet on a SE trend around here, especially when models start to latch onto an amped system. We're just going to have to wait and see, unfortunately. But when we seethe SE trend, it's usually because we have a big block in place near Greenland/eastern Canada. That's been my experience anyway.

A couple of things are possible for those rooting for the southern track:

1) The NAO ridge is legit and will keep the PV from scooting north too soon.

2) The models that are showing the amped/NW solutions are keying in on our wave but missing the strength of the wave behind it, which would act as a kicker and keep our wave moving along. If they're mishandling either or each (which they likely are), then volatility will continue until both are onshore.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lord have mercy why would you say that 5 days out lol? Tempting the snow gods right there.
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The funny thing is that most ATL mets are very good at not doing this kinda stuff. I would at least wait until you get into NAM range if you're going to take stuff like this to social media. I personally like FFC's Swedish Chef tweet better.
 
Did anyone save the 15day GFS 51 inch max over Charlotte the other day. Was dated Jan 16th, Im about certain: Please check the time stamp. After seeing the icon and the Amp hysteria unfolding on the models. What a coincidence if Charlotte gets Bombed 1/16 into 1/17 and the gFs called it 14-15 days ahead of time. That Icon image looks like same orientation.
 
NCSNOW said:
Did anyone save the 15day GFS 51 inch max over Charlotte the other day. Was dated Jan 16th, Im about certain: Please check the time stamp. After seeing the icon and the Amp hysteria unfolding on the models. What a coincidence if Charlotte gets Bombed 1/16 into 1/17 and the gFs called it 14-15 days ahead of time. That Icon image looks like same orientation.
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This one
65185F73-47C9-4B52-A751-3A12D077C7A4.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Why are models all of the sudden really converging on this idea of an explosive system by go time … if people are dealing with snow or ice, winds with a system like this are going to prove to be very very problematic with power and trees toppling ..
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It was the same thing with the early Jan system. It started as a frontal passage with some anafrontal snow, then evolved to a well developed extratropical cyclone with screaming winds and a CCB deform band.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Why are models all of the sudden really converging on this idea of an explosive system by go time … if people are dealing with snow or ice, winds with a system like this are going to prove to be very very problematic with power and trees toppling ..
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The energy dropping down is stronger and digs more SW. Just the increased energy alone would cause for a better surface depiction than a fast moving clipper system that was modeled a day or two ago. Closed off systems move much slower and gives the system time to go negative tilt so that it really intensifies off the coast and can cranks as it creeps north and east.
 
NCSNOW said:
Did anyone save the 15day GFS 51 inch max over Charlotte the other day. Was dated Jan 16th, Im about certain: Please check the time stamp. After seeing the icon and the Amp hysteria unfolding on the models. What a coincidence if Charlotte gets Bombed 1/16 into 1/17 and the gFs called it 14-15 days ahead of time. That Icon image looks like same orientation.
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As my grandmother used to say, "What kind of question is that?"

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