GFS out to 60 and it's a touch SW with the wave coming into Pac NW and a touch north with the initial trough thru TN/GA....suspect this will be another amplified run
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
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iGRXY
Member
It's too warm at the surface. It trended towards the GFS in a big way so definitely not shots fired.
It came South compared to it's previous run, so if anything, it's good for those areas.
Fountainguy97
Member
12z gfs at hr 63 still trending deeper out west and the Canadian lobe further west
iGRXY
Member
Through 54 GFS looks like the wave is stronger coming into the PNW.
Showmeyourtds
Member
ICON won't get it done for most in Georgia. LP doesn't dig deep enough
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Right now it's all about trends. If we see good trends toward a favorable solution then we want to hold around that. Hope the GFS holds and the CMC too and let the ICON and Euro play catchup to them. That's the most favorable outcome. Even with a middle ground it's still a significant storm.
accu35
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It’s headed that direction. It took a big step towards the gfs. I bet the next couple of runs it will be even further south.
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Icon's 500 mb depiction at hour 66 is totally different than the NAM or GFS at this point. It appears to be an outlier, for now. Maybe it's a trend setter, but we won't know for several more model runs, unfortunately.
The Trend is your friend though as it definitely moved toward all the other models
Oconeexman
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Guys don't sweat the icon..it came leaps and bounds in the right direction. The warm bias is real. I personally don't look at it much for any type of winter storm. But it's nice to have it on board of course
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Almost closed off upper low over western Nebraska at 81 hours on GFS 12z. Surface low forming just west of Dallas. Very similar to NAM.
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That ICON run came with sustained winds at 25MPH and gusts to 50.
iGRXY
Member
Closed at 90 in Northern Kansas.
EDIT: Moving almost due south. SSE direction.
EDIT: Moving almost due south. SSE direction.
Not a fan of this run gonna be warmer/amped
Jrips2710
Member
Closed off over Kansas at 90. Here it comes.
Me thinks we have another very amped GFS run incoming, seems a tick stronger, slower and probably........ I'll wait a few more frames
ehhh
iGRXY
Member
The high is stronger but less CAD and more ridging out ahead of the ULL.
Feel like this run is gonna be icy
ATLwxfan
Member
Not sure…seems like it’s improved over its last run.
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NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
540 line is about 40 miles futher north verse 6z gfs .
NCSNOW
Member
Storm5
Member
Huge hit for Nc
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Your typical Carolina winter storm lol
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Surprised it's snowing NW GA with the most snow in GA. I thought this was a CAD setup?
packfan98
Moderator
I-85 Battleground for Snow/mix line this run. Typical.
It's a touch north but our HP is stronger, seems like a stronger CAD signal and almost looks like it's trying to transfer energy to coastal off SENC coast.
Stephenb888
Member
What’s making it less cold this time?
iGRXY
Member
Please check your sounding closely. GFS says I am mixing here but the sounding is still snow.
NCSNOW
Member
D
Deleted member 609
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Nw Piedmont crushed. Lots of ice for charlotte
Cary_Snow95
Member
?
February 2014 basically
Backend snow for Atlanta?
Stephenb888
Member
I already see where this is going. Trends from snow to ice, then the i85 battleline of rain/snow. Next it will be rain.
NCSNOW
Member
