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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

metwannabe said:
It's my fault y'all, I renewed my Wxbell account, sorry but any who, this looks better

1642356000-MLqRSfEYO94.png
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It is reassuring to see there are hardly any solutions that go up towards the Northeast, a lot more west to east movement in the ensembles
 
Remember everyone, this is the dance we have to play in the South. We want it to amp a bit to help bring down more cold from the high and increase QPF but we definitely don't want it to amp too much b/c it tends to drive the low north and brings in ice or rain. We're going to see lots of different changes over the next couple of days, try not to get too worked up run to run, BUT the trends matter. Not a good change on this current GFS but it could easily be over amped. Other models are trending more positively. Also, don't forget, we'll be in range of the short range models soon and those will start to tell the tale. Just about anything is still in play right now.
 
WeatherNC said:
I certainly would give weight to the ensembles at this point, deterministic runs can and will change, ens means should smooth out the noise until we get inside 72hrs. This is gonna be fun and I am likely chasing, again.
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We arent going to get close to locked in until we get this thing on shore.
 
Sandbar said:
Just some perspective since I don't have much to add weather wise. This thing is going to change "multiple times". I guess when everything gets onshore you start seeing the real solution unfold?
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Exactly. The issue we face here is that there isnt a lot of data sampling(which is a fancy way of saying there's a lack of information) over the pacific, which is where this is coming in from.
 
So the UK comes north.. expecting the OP Euro to possibly do the same, then.

If so, it just adds to the idea of more amplification ...........
 
Tarheel1 said:
CMC tends to overdo the CAD a lot of times! It’s always the coldest solution, 98% of the time
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Ehhh. Canadian is used for CAD out of the globals as it gets a better feel for it due to its cold bias. This is a legit CAD that we probably haven't seen since Feb 2014 so it's pretty realistic in my opinion.
 
Right now, all I can see is that a smoothed mean of every GEFS member has me with heavy snow and 22 degrees on Sunday Morning. Even if it does change over, which we all need to face is our typical climo event here, it's gonna put down 6"+ before that time even comes.
 
NCSNOW said:
Go to Highlands/Cashiers. If you want ski,then hit up Maggie Valley, catalooche
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Really don’t care to ski. I found some cool places in highlands. I remember chasing to Maggie a few years ago and they got skunked and we stopped by highlands on the way up where they got several inches. Thanks for the advice.


Looks like a nice storm coming up!
 
This system has the makings to be one of the best winters storms most of us have seen in a long time. A classic winter storm with all precip types (minus cold rain) thank goodness, at play. Mostly snow for Upstate north, but I wouldn't be surprised to have some sleet/freezing rain with that snow as well, which will only add to the longevity of whatever snowfall accumulates. Definitely a lot of changes between now and Thursday/Friday. But unless something crazy occurs I can't foresee anything major that yanks this from under us. There are just too many things coming together at the right times for a lot of us not to score big. Then again, I am mearly an amateur.
 
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