NCSNOW
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Zoomed in for the UK:
(Now I guess I’m a weenier)
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(Now I guess I’m a weenier)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
What does the CMC shows for ice?
UKMet is a few degrees from putting down a foot of snow from southern MS through GA.Zoomed in for the UK:
(Now I guess I’m a weenier)
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In all honesty, this setup ain’t really warming up at the SFC, just aloft, this looks like a pretty classic trend to a dominant Miller B setup, vs a flat/snow setup 
lets go!
Just thought I should mention that for those of us that don't get what we hope for with this system, and even for those that get their fill, the long-range GFS is just weenie heaven.
Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't our area tend to do better with Miller B setups and opposed to Miller A. Flat/Snow setups? Aka Feb 2014.
Agreed… and it has support on it from its ensembles and GFS/GEFS
Agree, you could already see the GFS came in with stronger HP and colder surface temps, transferring energy off the coast, problem I have with that run it then drives it straight north up I-95. I have my doubts about that track but we will see, sure seems we have a significant Miller B wintry threat evolving
Yep, CLT/GSO/ASV have way better luck with Miller Bs
I’m saving this frame lol 
NCSNOW
Member
The 12z GFS,Can, Ukmet are all almost identical on the 500 vort map at hr 96. By hour 108 The ukmet goes to the GOM shoreline and the 12zgfs stays up in northern MS. Cant figure out why each does what it does. We all prefer the dive down to the GOM and not a northern AL/MS path.
Eitheir way you slice the pie its gonna be all frozen in Triad NC with surface temps 20-22 whole event. That we can be very confident of.
Eitheir way you slice the pie its gonna be all frozen in Triad NC with surface temps 20-22 whole event. That we can be very confident of.
Not often you get a Miller B with a +PNA, the H5 pattern for this possible Miller B is pretty different then the Miller B composite
Unfortunately though if memory serves me correct, the UK has a overamping tendency and a southern track bias.The 12z GFS,Can, Ukmet are all almost identical on the 500 vort map at hr 96. By hour 108 The ukmet goes to the GOM shoreline and the 12zgfs stays up in northern MS. Cant figure out why each does what it does. We all prefer the dive down to the GOM and not a northern AL/MS path.
Eitheir way you slice the pie its gonna be all frozen in Triad NC with surface temps 20-22 whole event. That we can be very confident of.
Maybe the Euro will get onboard.
Ruh roh 
Huge increase on the GEPS as well.
But I don't like the orientation of it
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For those who dont remember February 2014(especially in the charlotte area):
I was in Fort Mill at the time. We started as heavy snow on the first morning around 23 or 24. We ended up getting about half a foot to eight inches before we changed to sleet and then to freezing rain. We changed back to snow on the way out the next morning.
It's still one of the best storms of my life and it had three different transitions.
I was in Fort Mill at the time. We started as heavy snow on the first morning around 23 or 24. We ended up getting about half a foot to eight inches before we changed to sleet and then to freezing rain. We changed back to snow on the way out the next morning.
It's still one of the best storms of my life and it had three different transitions.
Miller B printer go brrrr, to me this is trending favorably for western NC/upstate including GSO/CLT/GSP/ASV, models are really trying to Miller B more now, I had a feeling we would see this eventually, a amped up trend
Cary_Snow95
Member
Miller Bs are usually a slop fest for RDU. Initial thump of snow before a switch to sleet then zr then backside snow. Not as fun as all snow but usually sticks around longer
NWMSGuy
Member
What does this mean in layman terms?
I like this track much better than the GFS track. This track actually makes sense unlike the wonky GFS track.
He Speaks
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I think it means the GFS had data that the NAM did not. Not sure how much of a difference it makes, though.
I absolutely loved that storm… the sleet and ice we got during the middle of it really helped to keep the ground covered for a number of days afterwards despite the February sun angle and a fairly quick warm up after the storm. A storm similar to that right now at peak climo and below average temperatures after the storm could really stay on the ground for awhile.
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
packfan98
Moderator
Y'all are putting banter comments in the wrong thread and replying to the posts quicker than I can delete them. STOP!
One thing to keep in mind as this appears to be turning into a Miller B or Hybrid A/B set up is that often times you can get an area of overrunning snow that breaks out well ahead of the main system and the models often don’t pick up on it until inside 12 hours. The February 2014 storm was a great example of that here southern and eastern areas of CLT metro back into the eastern Upstate… the snow started about 6 hours ahead of forecast and got heavy very quickly
SimeonNC
Member
Brad is a solid dude, and it's encouraging that he's getting more confident in at least some type of winter weather considering how conservative( and rightfully so) he is.
olhausen
Member
Obviously still lots of changes to come before go time. That said if middle Tennessee gets anywhere near the snow that this run shows it will be some of the highest seasonal snow totals in many years with the snow that has already fallen.
iGRXY
Member
More TPV = More colder air
iGRXY
Member
Euro has the first wave that develops our 50/50 Low digging further SW in the short range. That is really telling for what we can expect our storm to potentially do as well.
Edit: It closes off right off the coast of NC which really helps for further development of the 50/50. Also the 850's are colder so far.
Edit: It closes off right off the coast of NC which really helps for further development of the 50/50. Also the 850's are colder so far.
Cary_Snow95
Member
As jon pointed out, we want to see blues on the se side of the vort. So far so good
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
And one of the biggest disappointments in my lifetime for most of the upstate. 8-14 inches predicted by local mets the morning of and 3 inches of slop for me.
Good video as always from Brad. I wonder if he’ll be back from his vacation by the weekend. He’s such a weenie too, he’ll hate not being in town for a big storm