• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Ever Conservative KILM, is still, well..... Conservative, though starting too mention the possibilities
 
KCAE:

000
FXUS62 KCAE 111138
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
638 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The confidence in the overall pattern evolution and timing
continues to remain low through period. But the threat for
wintry precipitation may be increasing.

Behind the upper trough the air mass is re-enforced by
continental polar air as coastal low deepens well offshore of
the Carolinas. A strong pressure ridge 1040mb centered over
eastern Canada builds south along the eastern seaboard possibly
setting up a cold air damming situation by Saturday. The
deterministic runs have been inconsistent on details but the
latest ensemble guidance suggest a weak low may develop in the
Deep south as a deep upper low amplifies over the Carolinas and
Georgia late Saturday into Sunday. The ensembles low track east
across northern Florida is more favorable for wintry weather and
now the ECMWF is showing this. With the wintry precipitation
type probabilities increasing, introduced mixed rain and snow to
forecast with emphasis across the northern Midlands...although
considerable uncertainty remains given this is the day 5-6
period. Temperatures likely below normal over the weekend given
the situation. Seasonably cool for the Holiday next Monday as
the potential storm system moves away from the area.
Click to expand...
 
Ollie Williams said:
Sizable increase on the 06z EPS!
View attachment 103722View attachment 103723
The Control has a foot of snow down towards north GA!
View attachment 103725
Click to expand...
That plus the CMC plus the GFS plus the GEFS just means more sleepless nights ahead watching the trends. Consistency will be key leading into this as will be the features. The wave is just 2 to 3 days or so from land with the TPV's final location being in 3. IF we can get into that range and keep this, we're golden and primed to see a true Miller A. In addition I love how the temps on the back side barely reach above freezing for more than a few hours at a time afterwards. It'll stick around for at least 3 or 4 solid days.
 
metwannabe said:
Euro control has me and @Shaggy , Downeast and other eastern members puckering up just a little. That's too much too soon lol
Click to expand...
If we're not in the pink, meh

Seriously, great to be seeing a lot of different scenarios 5ish days out and most of them show a winter storm.

Hard to lean in any particular direction right now. Need to account for model bias in situations like this and also remember that we're in a period of time where the wave(s) that are important to the event is/are probably not all well-sampled. When we wake up Thursday morning, the flat vs amped question should be answered.

Then it comes down to track, high pressure placement, CAD, Gulf convection, strength and location of the 50/50, etc. But the bottom line is, at least the potential is there for a disruptive, widespread winter storm that won't immediately be wiped away by a warm-up. Fun times ahead.
 
Good Morning Everyone! Noticing a few things that I really really like so far with modeling. 1. Our TPV and 50/50L is continuing to strengthen and you're seeing a much larger cold push here. 2. A blend of the Euro and GFS with probably more emphasis on the GFS as the Euro (and really all modeling) is trending to the trough digging further SW and a more amped or likely closed off ULL solution. That's really good in my opinion as we can really get the precip cranked up and this really helps pull in substantially more cold air from our north. 3. Usually I would be very worried about mixing issues (hint the 6z GFS) especially with the more amped solution and let's be honest with ourselves, the NW trend is going to happen at some point. I don't think it will be a major NW trend like we have seen in the past but that is just how these models operate. The GFS really tries pushing our LP into the CAD dome and let me tell you folks that isn't happening with typical CAD. CAD always is under modeled and always stouter than globals can see. This is shaping up to be a super CAD. I do think we will definitely be dealing with ICE but I think it will be much more centered around I20. Also for my ATL folks, I really liked the possibility of you guys getting in on the fun a day or so ago when the ULL started really digging more on some modeling and it is taking a beautiful track to paint a major swatch up and down the 85 corridor from Georgia to the upstate and then through the piedmont.
 
KyloG said:
We know how this ends....especially for myself, RainCold and SD. ?‍♂️
Click to expand...
Not necessarily bad, even the Icon which looked horrible for our area had a scenario where we had initial snow, a switch to rain with temps jumping into the mid 30s, then rain (ice) with temps falling into the 20s, and then what looked like an eventual switch back to snow. Bottom line we're pretty sure there will be a storm, but we have no idea what it will do.
 
KyloG said:
We know how this ends....especially for myself, RainCold and SD. ?‍♂️
Click to expand...

I don't know, these late bloomers, usually favor you guys. Of course as long as they don't go crazy amped and track inland on you. Especially being modeled this cold, if this thing does not get amped near the gulf and only strengthens late on the coast, I bet you guys do better.
 
Does anyone have the Korean? Even the NAVGEM is on board lol.
navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_20.png
 
1641908179881.png
1641908202124.png
1641908224921.png
This was definitely fixing to be a much better solution. Colder 850's and the trough is digging way further SW and we already have a closed off ULL in the plains whereas the EURO never closed it off before. That is a huge step towards the GFS more amped solution.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is some of the deepest and coldest CAD I’ve seen since February 2014, this storm is giving that vibe
Click to expand...

I'm still not sure what to do with the 540 line to my south. The world is upside down. Yeah, that's the most exciting thing about this ATM. Hopefully that doesn't fade away in the next 4 days of model runs.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Does anyone have the Korean? Even the NAVGEM is on board lol.
navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_20.png
Click to expand...
It would be hard to draw a better snowstorm surface map than that. It is absolutely perfect for much of NC, western and northern SC, Georgia, parts of AL and TN and on up into VA. What a map.
 
Rain Cold said:
If we're not in the pink, meh

Seriously, great to be seeing a lot of different scenarios 5ish days out and most of them show a winter storm.

Hard to lean in any particular direction right now. Need to account for model bias in situations like this and also remember that we're in a period of time where the wave(s) that are important to the event is/are probably not all well-sampled. When we wake up Thursday morning, the flat vs amped question should be answered.

Then it comes down to track, high pressure placement, CAD, Gulf convection, strength and location of the 50/50, etc. But the bottom line is, at least the potential is there for a disruptive, widespread winter storm that won't immediately be wiped away by a warm-up. Fun times ahead.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it’s really nice when the operationals and ensembles show multiple different looks and possibilities that all still lead to a winter storm. Probabilities are definitely higher than normal for this far out. Exactly where that vortex and trough axis gets established, plus the tilt of the storm are the two biggest issues, and as you say will not be resolved at this point.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top