Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Iceagewhereartthou]

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View attachment 103506
Really nice to see the colder push at the end of the NAM.

Still that pesky warm nose NEGA and Western Upstate; I absolutely loathe that thing! One more adjustment like that colder and a lot more would be in play. Let's keep these trends going!

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

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ICON looks to have trended somewhat better with surface temps

Maybe just me but I don't think the ICON is worth it's bandwidth. It may have some value to look at just for trends but I wouldn't put much into specifics from it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If there’s one thing the icon is actually sorta consistently doing, it’s strengthening the 50/50 low and brining the TPV south

 

[iGRXY]

ICON is a I40 special in NC.

 

[Chandler]

 

[iGRXY]

Almost dry everywhere else. But so far it is really an outlier

 

[Shawn]

Look at the idea; it's a step to the right direction. and its the Icon. No worries. It was REALLY bad earlier.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If there’s one thing the icon is actually sorta consistently doing, it’s strengthening the 50/50 low and brining the TPV south View attachment 103519

This TPV response has really suppressed the system the last few runs, at this point we just need to fix the energy on the icon, we have the cold above us right where we want it

 

[HKY1994]

I trust the Navgem more than the icon


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[JLL1973]

Ok just gonna ask,us in nw alabama gonna get in on this???lol

No. This is not our storm

 

[WeatherNC]

Still feel solid on overrunning with a late coastal splurge. Thickness at this point splits NC, or along the VA boarder, areas to the SW suspect but still in play.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This TPV response has really suppressed the system the last few runs, at this point we just need to fix the energy on the icon, we have the cold above us right where we want it View attachment 103522

Crazy how a little influence from the tropospheric polar vortex at H5 can effect the pattern so much, this is probably gonna pay off in future runs

 

[Shaggy]

If there’s one thing the icon is actually sorta consistently doing, it’s strengthening the 50/50 low and brining the TPV south View attachment 103519

This is key to.me. we strengthen that and the chances of a severe NW trend go down.

 

[accu35]

No. This is not our storm

And why not?? This isn’t that far from something special

 

[iGRXY]

GFS looks like it’s going to deliver again early on. Don’t want to count my chickens before they hatch.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the energy is digging quite a bit more, way more +PNA as well, and TPV further SE

 

[iGRXY]

Closed off over Nebraska. Incoming.

 

[NCSNOW]

Futher west than 18z. Hard to beat 18z for mby. Well see, might do it here

 

[LovingGulfLows]

This run might be massive, at least for my backyard. Taller western ridge. TPV pressing further south. Our S/W energy is digging more to the southwest.

 

[KyloG]

This is going to be just sick...