Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[HKY1994]

18z euro control run looked great! S/w was rapidly tilting neutral to possibly negative at the end. I-85 corridor was about to get hammered.


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[SD]

 

[iGRXY]

Control was about to close off.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

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That definitely looks like it'll try to pop a sfc low somewhere in southern GA.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

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Notable that it seems significantly slower than the GFS. By 18z Sunday Gfs has it closed off over Myrtle Beach

 

[Chazwin]

When does everyone think the NWS will update the temps for this weekend? It looks regardless to how the snow plays out it will be colder than advertised currently.

Typically GSP, Columbia, and Raleigh will stick close to climo in situation like this until timing and other details become clearer. I would think that if by Wednesday models are still showing the storm and clouds moving in by Saturday, you’ll see GSP lower Saturday highs to the low 40s and then Sunday down into the 30s for our area. They seldom ever put sun-freezing highs until within 36-48 hours before the event

 

[SD]

That definitely looks like it'll try to pop a sfc low somewhere in southern GA.

Yes indeed

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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Jeebus

 

[SENC]

Ever conservative KILM says..

The GFS and the ECMWF have been bouncing back and forth around
developing a wintery mix or cold rain. The GFS is the more bullish
with the wintery mix scenario, and the ECMWF has pulled back with
the winter mix to the north of the area. At this time, the
confidence for a winter mix is still low. So will hold off for now
introducing wintery mix.

 

[iGRXY]

Control was about to deliver foot + totals. Temps were already at freezing at the surface and -3 to -5 850’s with tons of moisture. Closed off likely going over I20. That was about to be good for the midlands too.

 

[Tarheel1]

By the way, I heard thru the grapevine via a little birdie that AMasiello likes a SE hit for this storm (as opposed to Mid Atl / NE)....he's usually pretty good with those kinds of calls

Yes indeed View attachment 103478

Got that Jan 88 look to it! Especially on the temp side of things!

 

[accu35]

Ok just gonna ask,us in nw alabama gonna get in on this???lol

Trends are still happening and lots of changes are gonna happen, being were still 5/6 days out. IMO, I can see parts of Bama getting in on this if trends continue. We’ll see tho!

 

[lexxnchloe]

This could be one of the biggest ever.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nice changes with the energy on the NAM

 

[Broken024]

It's happening

 

[LukeBarrette]

Nice changes with the energy on the NAM
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Surprisingly brings some mountain snow to Nc and Va with energy over us.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NAM closes it off over West Central Montana.

 

[Tokenfreak]

I really hope at least some of this snow will reach the Charleston/lowcountry areas.

 

[iGRXY]

Also worth noting that at the end of the NAM the cold push was significantly better.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Also worth noting that at the end of the NAM the cold push was significantly better.

Much more interaction with the lobe over SE Canada