Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[iGRXY]

First call map this afternoon. We will likely switch to sleet for a period in the northern upstate and southern mountains but long durations of snow on both the front and bank end are likely at this point. Along the 85 corridor, Long durations of snow during the beginning and back end are likely as well but sleet and freezing rain will likely mix in for a few hours as well. The central and southern upstate and SE of 85 will likely see that first thump and back end snow but a switch to sleet and especially freezing rain is likely and will probably start pretty fast. Below I20 and towards i95 we probably start with snow, then switch to ICE before a switch to rain and finishing with snow looks to be the case. Obviously with the wave now being on land or coming on land will move things around and we can really start looking at the NAM this afternoon and evening to start getting an idea on temp profiles to adjust totals.

 

[KyloG]

If the CAD holds stronger than at some point the models have to show the slp track further east, it will not hold on long at all if it tracks inland like they are all showing. That's my experience anyway and according to @Lickwx I've got the most experience on here by about 100 years Lol

That's true. It might be until the storm is occurring, do we see the track adjusting eastward. Regardless of what happens, this is a fun storm to track.

We going to have to get some big changes for the SLP to track along the coast. With still 3 days away this could keep ticking to the NW.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Not really things have been really consistent it’s just social media confusing people with snow maps when it’s clearly a mixed bag. It’s been a i77 snow storm for days with severe ice down to Charlotte metro and even further south. Yea there have been trends but by and large this storm has been “easy” with no rug pulls.

Consistent? Maybe with a winter storm being modeled for the region, yes but for many of us, it's been a lot of options on the table with regards to front end thumps, p-types etc. You know not all of us live in a cage.

 

[cyclogent]

HRRR coming in south

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Ok! ? ? ? Ray pulled out the “Big Snow” Snowmanometer this morning! WNC historical snow inbound!

 

[iGRXY]

NAM already weaker with the wave entering the US.

EDIT: Definitely more interaction with the BAJA low.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Consistent? Maybe with a winter storm being modeled for the region, yes but for many of us, it's been a lot of options on the table with regards to front end thumps, p-types etc. You know not all of us live in a cage.

Cage should read Cad. Yea there’s always the fine transition line but I think most Mets would agree it’s been a more consistent winter storm than in recent memory. A lot of us here do live in the heart of the Cad.

 

[Rain Cold]

For the central NC folks, this will be another "right on the line" event. Many transitions between p-types. The big question right now is do we go above freezing (to rain). Most models say we do, but there is some thought that the CAD may hold stronger. Lee Ringer (Spectrum Meteorologist) thinks there is a possibility this could occur. Maybe the latest data being collected (storm is now moving on shore) and the short-range models (now coming in range) will make things a little clearer later today.

I remember not too long ago we were talking about this being one of the strongest CADs in almost a decade. Now we're right on the line like we are with your average run of the mill CAD with the low tracking right up the middle of it. Fun times.

 

[griteater]

From 06z Euro.

First image is dewpoints as the precip is moving into N GA - this is what good damming looks like with below zero and single digit dewpoints in VA.

Second image is sfc temperatures 12 hours later at 1pm Sunday. 23 degrees in SC Upstate / 21 in Winston/Greensboro

 

[TigerSnow]

Not really things have been really consistent it’s just social media confusing people with snow maps when it’s clearly a mixed bag. It’s been a i77 snow storm for days with severe ice down to Charlotte metro and even further south. Yea there have been trends but by and large this storm has been “easy” with no rug pulls.

I hope that’s wrong. Being north of Charlotte I want zilch if I have to deal with ice and long term power outages. Been there before and want nothing to do with that.

 

[Downeastnc]

I don't like a lot tbh. I think you have a better chance at a slightly longer duration period of snow to start but 850s already near 0c as the precip is starting means snow will likely be brief, no goof initial fgen push yet that I've seen. Looking at the nam soundings vs ptype I think with the dry nose present between 875 and 950 we can over perform on ip vs zr through mid morning early afternoon but eventually we go to zr by that point though we are inching so close to freezing at the sfc it may not be of huge consequence like it'll be even 50 miles west of us.

I know if eastern NC was in the bullseye 3 days out we would 100% see a trend to the bad in the last 36 hrs....The changes needed to get this to be a snow maker for central or eastern NC are the kind of trends that we never see lol.....even worse is at this point about the best you can hope for is a trend to a ice storm and well that's a hard pass for me.

 

[cyclogent]

 

[iGRXY]

NAM is further east with the energy over Canada coming down and more sheared as well at 18

 

[weatherfide]

48 hr HRRR, so big nugget of salt, but it had the 850 mb low and surface low still moving SE at that hour. I need that 850 mb low to stay south of me for any chance at backside snow, so I'm watching the trends closely. I don't want this thing amplifying until it gets to Panama City!

 

[iGRXY]

Eventual 50/50 is slightly stronger and the TPV looks slightly further west and south at 21

 

[Nerman]

HRRR at 48. You can see our system entering the South from the NW while the cold pushes in from the NE.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Energy over our main wave is way weaker. Hmm

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I hope that’s wrong. Being north of Charlotte I want zilch if I have to deal with ice and long term power outages. Been there before and want nothing to do with that.

This is one of the rare times I agree with Brad P. He’s been skiing in Colorado with Jim Cantore but he’s been screaming at people (paid weather sites) for misleading all snow maps circulating on FB. It’s always been ice but communication sucks with people using the weather channel app with no human input.

 

[DopplerWx]

We going to have to get some big changes for the SLP to track along the coast. With still 3 days away this could keep ticking to the NW.

yep the euro ens were all over inland nc, dont want this obviously and would turn many to rain.

 

[SD]

If you are hoping for a trend look no further than the portion in southern Canada here.