Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[iGRXY]

 

[iGRXY]

Energy coming down from Canada is faster and our southern piece of energy is sheared

 

[BHS1975]

From 06z Euro.

First image is dewpoints as the precip is moving into N GA - this is what good damming looks like with below zero and single digit dewpoints in VA.

Second image is sfc temperatures 12 hours later at 1pm Sunday. 23 degrees in SC Upstate / 21 in Winston/Greensboro

Dews a bit too high for RDU. You need single digits at least for a good ice storm.


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[MichaelJ]

Have a hunch we are not going to like the thermal profiles from the NAM coming up.

 

[LukeBarrette]

View attachment 104916

This could have major changes

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Seems to me, specifically for the N Ga. CAD areas, a roughly six-hour slowdown would be preferable to allow the wedge a bit more time to become established before the best precip arrives. All else being equal of course meaning the south trends such as depicted on the ICON holds.

 

[DopplerWx]

interesting to see the nam trend east with our offshore low the past few runs

 

[iGRXY]

Our 50/50 is stronger

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM is def gonna be improved

 

[iGRXY]

Already seeing 850's a little further south at 30.

 

[iGRXY]

Our 50/50 is stronger

In fact it's WAY stronger

 

[iGRXY]

850's significant colder already North of us.

 

[SD]

This is a pretty big change over the dakotas should hopefully act to delay the close and shift this E but it may mean a more north end game. Also notice the changes in the ridging over the PNW

 

[NCSNOW]

Our 50/50 is stronger

Gonna white/dust the ground in northern Mtns before the big Dawg shows up sat night.

 

[iGRXY]

We're still not closed off and the NAM is definitely more sheared. The big thing is how much stronger our 50/50 is this run.

 

[NCSNOW]

TPV is back futher SW verse 6z Nam. Why we are seeing the changes. Bigger press back toward upper midwest

 

[iGRXY]

Much colder 850's sliding south at 36

 

[Chazwin]

From 06z Euro.

First image is dewpoints as the precip is moving into N GA - this is what good damming looks like with below zero and single digit dewpoints in VA.

Second image is sfc temperatures 12 hours later at 1pm Sunday. 23 degrees in SC Upstate / 21 in Winston/Greensboro

Those low dew points in VA really are the key. I always feel that for my area and back into the eastern Upstate, the single digit dewpoints need to be coming down to right around the VA border a few hours before precip moves because as it starts and the wind is backing around from the NE, that is the source area that the NE is going to be feeding dry air in allowing for wet bulb cooling to continue. That was the reason that I knew in December 2018 that my area was gonna be on the outside looking in because dewpoints near the VA were close to 20.

 

[iGRXY]

This run is MUCH improved at H5. We're still not closed off at 42 and further southeast with the energy.

 

[Shaggy]

This is a pretty big change over the dakotas should hopefully act to delay the close and shift this E but it may mean a more north end game. Also notice the changes in the ridging over the PNW
View attachment 104919

How much raobs are involved in this mornings run is gonna be crucial to see if the models start to really latch on to a final solution.