Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[NCSNOW]

Does this model carry any weight or we just showing it for amusement?

It carries a lot. Use to be #2 verification behind euro

 

[bouncycorn]

Does this model carry any weight or we just showing it for amusement?

The ukmet is a great model.

 

[Shawn]

For anyone interested in the "snow growth zone" and soundings etc.. (it will be especially useful this storm with the back-end band tbh) google the following: "dendritic growth zone" and you will have plenty of results to go through.

 

[Broken024]

UKIE

This through end of storm?

 

[iGRXY]

This through end of storm?

Yes

 

[Arcc]

Ugh why can this verify just and just be a bit colder.

 

[accu35]

This through end of storm?

I believe the UK shows just snow like the icon, and Ice/ip/rain the same.

 

[WeatherNC]

Gold standard for those who know how to check them…

Real Time Nomogram Plots and Partial Thickness Data

www.weather.gov

 

[snowlover91]

It carries a lot. Use to be #2 verification behind euro

For reference here are current global verification scores. This doesn’t tell the whole story as some models can do better/worse in certain setups due to bias, but here they are.

 

[BelmontWX79]

Saw this MA thread, while nosing around.

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?

Fairly certain the GFS ENS were upgraded 1-2 years ago

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 104845
Thru 102

I always look at clown maps with skepticism about it being really just snow. I just checked 0Z UK 850s and sure enough it suggests a good 7” or so of accum of mostly snow near ATL especially just NE of there with some sleet as opposed to this really being ZR because they are colder than 0C most of the precip with warming only to just above 0C near the end of the heaviest.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Fairly certain the GFS ENS were upgraded 1-2 years ago

But the GFS was upgraded last March.

 

[BelmontWX79]

Oh ok. I think that was the upgrade to increase the vertical levels. No sure if they applied that to the ens or not.

 

[deltadog03]

I always look at clown maps with skepticism about it being really just snow. I just checked 0Z UK 850s and sure enough it suggests a good 7” or so of accum of mostly snow near ATL especially just NE of there with some sleet as opposed to this really being ZR because they are colder than 0C most of the precip with warming only to just above 0C near the end of the heaviest.

no doubt....temps are close to being big time event over NGA

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

But the GFS was upgraded last March.

Oh ok. I think that was the upgrade to increase the vertical levels. No sure if they applied that to the ens or not.

According to Wikipedia (not a given they're right, but is more often than not), maybe you're both right?

Global Forecast System - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

On June 12, 2019, after several years of testing, NOAA upgraded the GFS with a new dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3), which uses the finite volume method instead of the spectral method used by earlier versions of the GFS.

With the initial operational implementation of FV3GFS now accomplished, NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) global modeling focus has turned towards development of the next GFS (v16) upgrade, which will include doubled vertical resolution (64 to 127 layers), more advanced physics, data assimilation system upgrades, and coupling to a NCEP's Global Wave Model using the Unified Forecast System (UFS) community model. GFSv16 was implemented on March 22, 2021.

 

[WeatherNC]

Fully expecting a major SE winter storm with this 0z EC run.

 

[jrips27]

Very few changes through 30 hours

 

[WeatherNC]

2+ Phaser, wow, no wonder guidance had the lead

 

[WeatherNC]

Very solid H5

 

[Shawn]

that soon to be 50/50 looking a bit diff.. stronger I spose

edit. maybe slower instead.