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Sorry dude only irrational posts today
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
MichaelJ
Member
I think the period from the 10-20th February will be our best chance. east of the APPS We will likely warm up next week and turn cold again the following week unless the cold gets hung up in the APPS again, hard to tell for certain whether it does or not
That timeframe has always been a good one for storms as well as 22-27th. However start to lose interest by that time
GoDuke
Member
You can pack a whole winter’s worth in 2 weeks in the Carolinas. I have dozens of pics from that February 2015 period. This is the best stretch of winter weather in my life. It seemed like it was something happening every other day.
Could make winter go from oof to woof in one day.
Looks like January 2014 and January 2022.What if these blues could meet up across the deep south ?
It sure does. Only difference is that there’s a noticeable STJ
NBAcentel
Member
The +PNA is coming. Im skeptical of blocking coming back as quickly as the weeklies show, the retrogression of the -WPO ridge to Siberia (which encourages jet extension via +EAMT is is responsible for ending the -NAO episode we’ve had, and encourages the main cold lobe/TPV around Baffin Bay. the EPO coming up on ens late jan, along with the western ridge might encourage future +NAMT events as well. I bet once the Aleutian low starts pumping in energy into the the US, it’ll encourage -NAO through wavebreaking with phasing waves off the EC
Itryatgolf
Member
Ridge over Alaska developing is interesting in time! Just a matter of when not if it gets cold again central plains east imo
Yeah I’m not quite sure where this talk of a 3 week torch came from. Literally everything is pointing to basically around a 7 day warm up as the pattern reshuffles. Even as the warm up is happening you can see the processes unfolding that cools things back down fairly quickly. Yeah the blocking may not come back as quickly as we want, but you pointed out the main PV setting up around Baffin Bay often leads to a pseudo block like we saw in February 2014
Some of these recent Euro Weekly and GEFS Ext runs pump the AK ridge, but then lose it pretty quickly via what looks like too much Pac Jet Extension, and don't bring the ridging back until mid-Feb. So, I think it's all about how much momentum is getting pumped into the Pac Jet via the +EAMT / MJO / Strong El Nino combo. Hopefully, we don't see the big extension and we'd be in pretty good shape early-mid Feb
Lol! A 2 day warm up
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Legitimate question here; do we have any reason to expect the next cold outbreak to behave any differently than this one or any of the other recent ones? What will be different to drive this one east of the Apps?
No need to panic! March 1960 incoming…
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Never thought this late month warm-up would have much staying power at all, but it could be comparably potent (magnitude wise) to what we saw in December.
NBAcentel
Member
Yep. Putting all my jealousy and anger towards this winter aside, I’d say our 2nd shot this winter will probably be around 2/1-2/7, even if the western ridge is transient. My hope is getting some sort of TPV extension around Atlantic Canada and sneaking a southern wave, or digging something around the Rockies. we did it in jan 22, we can do it again. We have the tools showing up around the 31st on all ens (western ridge that’s poleward) and a TPV/cold lobe on our side, in NA. I’d say biggest concern is if we torch the heck out of late jan, will recovery be an issue ?
Long range crap shoot, but the MJO and rising AAM would favor the trough not dumping and staying in the West in late Jan / early Feb. We are in the opposite mode with the MJO/AAM here in early-mid Jan.
Here is the Weekly MJO Update from NOAA:
JB, on past storms and analogues, and going forward...
This is in no way to say they are the same They are to say if you can get all the similarities and blend them all, its worth just as much of your time as arguing if the vortex is going to split or models playing ping pong with your heart. Take it from someone who has wasted to much time on the latter, Never used the former method as when it split, it was already cold. Of course, this year, since I think mid Feb to Mid March relative to averages will be the coldest part of winter in the east, I guess the current split will be argued to be the pre cursor. One problem though the two major outbreaks ( assuming the other occurs) share the warming in common, not the splitting
If the worst of this current outbreak when the smoke clears is over over Nebraska. I think the next one will be over New Jersey
This is in no way to say they are the same They are to say if you can get all the similarities and blend them all, its worth just as much of your time as arguing if the vortex is going to split or models playing ping pong with your heart. Take it from someone who has wasted to much time on the latter, Never used the former method as when it split, it was already cold. Of course, this year, since I think mid Feb to Mid March relative to averages will be the coldest part of winter in the east, I guess the current split will be argued to be the pre cursor. One problem though the two major outbreaks ( assuming the other occurs) share the warming in common, not the splitting
If the worst of this current outbreak when the smoke clears is over over Nebraska. I think the next one will be over New Jersey
In other words, ZR/rain for I-20. #yay
Flotown
Member
so what we thinking bout thursdy night here in north alabama?
NBAcentel
Member
Rain. Maybe spotty ZR
tennessee storm
Member
Could be some issues at 850. Going be very tricky forecast
Cary_Snow95
Member
Interested to see just how cold we can get Wednesday morning. CAA lows usually under perform vs models but it seems like once the dam breaks in this cold it's going to bodily dump in
We are trending right into a cold rain just like we used to get tomorrow
Flotown
Member
any body got the ensembles on thursday and friday storm?may chase
NBAcentel
Member
KY special 
The Germans still insist its gonna flake here Friday. Nam, RDPS throw an ice cube or two out as well.
boom
GSP throwing me a lil something Thursday night
NBAcentel
Member
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a look like that with a southern stream wave under a western ridge and a NE trough 
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Isn't that too far east and too warm for us?
NBAcentel
Member
Probably but it’s a look we would want further east, east of the apps. back that trough west up a little bit, and steer clear of northern stream and we get a cold ass wedge
33 and steady Rain this a.m.
It tries to do it again on the 06z run but we lose what we need to the NE.
Ryan87NC
Member
Nothing quite like 34 degrees and rain here in Winston Salem.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
W
WSW
Guest
rburrel2
Member
This a snooze fest, but possibly the first wintery precip to fall here in two years so...
Seems like a solid chance of light freezing rain from 1am-5am Friday morning for NE Ga/Upstate SC. All the models are dropping somewhere between .05 and .25 of liquid.
The airmass in place looks to be mid/upper 30's with dew points around 10 degree's per hi-res models. If we can squeeze out enough moisture to wetbulb there could be a light glaze.
Seems like the main question is whether or not we get enough precip to drop below freezing. .05 wouldn't cut it, but .20+ would get it done.
Seems like a solid chance of light freezing rain from 1am-5am Friday morning for NE Ga/Upstate SC. All the models are dropping somewhere between .05 and .25 of liquid.
The airmass in place looks to be mid/upper 30's with dew points around 10 degree's per hi-res models. If we can squeeze out enough moisture to wetbulb there could be a light glaze.
Seems like the main question is whether or not we get enough precip to drop below freezing. .05 wouldn't cut it, but .20+ would get it done.
All the ensembles look pretty darn good and still on time. Transition begins 1/28 and by last day of January we have a stellar pac ridge building up into the NW territories and look good east coast. I will be very surprised if we don't see a split flow storm or two get sent our way first week of February. Best news east of the Apps is we will have way way better confluence from the NE thankfully as Fro was pointing out with this type of configuration.
Meanwhile we should see some flakes flying Friday. Really surprised how much moisture showed up here past 2 days. Models (ops) really missed that for my back yard.
Meanwhile we should see some flakes flying Friday. Really surprised how much moisture showed up here past 2 days. Models (ops) really missed that for my back yard.