Pattern Jammin January 2024

[Wild Weather Monger]

Canadian is a party pooper. I'd like to have seen it fall in line with the ICON and GFS. Hopefully, the EURO makes it 3 of four.

 

[Mitch West]

That's shaping up to be a very large and impactful storm. It's nice to see some interesting weather showing up.

The more that storm cuts Southeast, the more I believe it allows the Arctic air sitting on top to move into our area undercutting that storm. Which would feed into the next system, which would likely cut further South & East. Maybe not cutting at all.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Demolishing the big AK block is doing us big favors.
1. The -NAO is becoming the key feature (which we want)
2. Prevents amplification of the pattern
3. Speeds up the pattern over the US
Also note how the -NAO has trended stronger, from a model suite that was looking bleak before, these are some pretty positive changes
View attachment 140176View attachment 140177

That’s a little reminiscent of the cold outbreak on new years 2017/2018. I can remember models haven’t trouble with that. If I remember correctly we had a pesky SER showing up again and again and finally guidance decided that cold air back west was indeed going to move east and boy did it.

Worth noting I believe we were in or headed into a weak El Niño that winter.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Wow. This monster is actually trending SE.

CMC and GFS trended oppositely

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a little reminiscent of the cold outbreak on new years 2017/2018. I can remember models haven’t trouble with that. If I remember correctly we had a pesky SER showing up again and again and finally guidance decided that cold air back west was indeed going to move east and boy did it.

Worth noting I believe we were in or headed into a weak El Niño that winter.

Early jan 2018 I think was a nina, and actually one of the good examples that nina years aren’t so bad, early on

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Early jan 2018 I think was a nina, and actually one of the good examples that nina years aren’t so bad, early on

End of the CMC gets the blood flowing. Potential is there for something really big. Anything can happen when you pump and stretch those heights into Canada and towards the pole. Somebody not used to winning is gonna win. If we could get an Aleutian low churning during this timeframe ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Snowfan]

Interestingly the GFS MJO has it going back to phase 2 and then 3.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

?View attachment 140214View attachment 140215View attachment 140216

GEFS is also moving things forward a bit too Wow ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interestingly the GFS MJO has it going back to phase 2 and then 3. View attachment 140218

Looks like a reflection of the pulse on the western side of the IO flaring up

 

[griteater]

Hard not to like the CMC Ens progression here. Slow moving TPV under the block that evolves into a 50/50 low type deal with storm waves crashing into Cali > Texas underneath. High pressure fanned out west to east up top with low pressure waviness in the Gulf

 

[cyclogent]

Looking good!

 

[CaryWx]

Good to see the mjo dashing towards 8/1/2 in about another week

 

[Snowfan]

Here’s what the long range ICON has for temperatures at the end of the run.

 

[WSW]

Here’s what the long range ICON has for temperatures at the end of the run. View attachment 140229

We just need it to move east a couple hundred miles.

 

[CaryWx]

Here’s what the long range ICON has for temperatures at the end of the run. View attachment 140229

Looks frontal for sure

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is a little bit slower so far. Still moving east

 

[RollTide18]

View attachment 140082

Would be a nice snowpack to help us out south of I-20 lord willing

 

[WSW]

Would be a nice snowpack to help us out south of I-20 lord willing

True. Just so hard to get snow anywhere right now. Signs point to a change though.

 

[Myfrotho704_]