Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Southern US Overrunning Events, just like Grandma used to make.
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah I noticed that. I think I prefer the mean!
just curious, what events do you use for your composite?
griteater
Member
And I assume that is the day of the storm Eric?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Had to dig very deep into the archive to find some of these that immediately popped into my mind (others famous southern sliders like Feb 12-13 2010, Jan 6-8 1988 & Jan 2-3 2002 didn't quite fit imho). Just goes to show how good this forthcoming pattern looks to me.
December 28-29 1935
January 29-31 1936
January 23-24 1940
March 24-25 1940
December 11-12 1958
March 9-10 1960
January 19-20 1992
January 10-11 2011
January 28-29 2014
thanks eric.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep this is the first day of the storm in NC.
Grandma’s cookies. ?
Flotown
Member
boy that storm next friday looks a tad different on euro
Brent
Member
Gotta watch the ensembles
Flotown
Member
u right,any word on them?
Brent
Member
On the previous page
Pattern - Jammin January 2024
Looked like something rounding the base of the trof in oklahoma
southernwx.com
Mostly north of Alabama but there is a little signal
?
lexxnchloe
Member
Are you expecting a snowstorm in January for the SE?
Philstorm91
Member
January 28-29 2014 was an epic ice storm for the Baton Rouge area.
griteater
Member
Summary thoughts on the 12z runs (500mb)...
1. GFS - kind of meh. It's real strong with the Jan 13 cutter which ends up weakening the GL blocking some, then has waves dropping moreso into the West with a newly building AK ridge
2. CMC - Jan 13 cutter moves up under the GL block and just stalls there beautifully, feeding ridging into the block. Heavy block forms across AK / N Canada / S Greenland. Lot of cold underneath, but renewed AK ridging tries to build the trough to the west
3. GEFS - a little faster with the TPV moving west to east thru S Canada compared to prior 2 runs, but not bad overall
4. CMC Ens - really nice run. Slow trek of TPV thru S Canada underneath healthy GL block. Waviness moves into Cali>TX late in the run underneath cold high pressure to the north
5. Euro – takes the cutter to the tip of GL rather than directly under it which weakens the block. TPV rolls west to east nicely and farther south than other modeling (colder).
6. EPS – beautiful run. TPV moves up under the GL block and just floats there near James Bay. Cold air spills SE, but not overbearing. Some snow showing on the SV 24hr panels in Jan 15-17 timeframe
7. EPS Ctrl – Massive cold outbreak behind the cutter
1. GFS - kind of meh. It's real strong with the Jan 13 cutter which ends up weakening the GL blocking some, then has waves dropping moreso into the West with a newly building AK ridge
2. CMC - Jan 13 cutter moves up under the GL block and just stalls there beautifully, feeding ridging into the block. Heavy block forms across AK / N Canada / S Greenland. Lot of cold underneath, but renewed AK ridging tries to build the trough to the west
3. GEFS - a little faster with the TPV moving west to east thru S Canada compared to prior 2 runs, but not bad overall
4. CMC Ens - really nice run. Slow trek of TPV thru S Canada underneath healthy GL block. Waviness moves into Cali>TX late in the run underneath cold high pressure to the north
5. Euro – takes the cutter to the tip of GL rather than directly under it which weakens the block. TPV rolls west to east nicely and farther south than other modeling (colder).
6. EPS – beautiful run. TPV moves up under the GL block and just floats there near James Bay. Cold air spills SE, but not overbearing. Some snow showing on the SV 24hr panels in Jan 15-17 timeframe
7. EPS Ctrl – Massive cold outbreak behind the cutter
W
