As I’ve said about some other posts about the MJO, go and look at the info Grit and Webb posted about the MJO back on 1/6. Phase 4-7 isn’t as bad as we’ve all thought in February, especially when it’s low amped like it looks to be.
I just looked at the Weekly and Monthly that ran last night and they both still look really good.
I can think of several examples of similar type "threats" in the day 3-4 range that wound up turning in to a solid 2-3 inch storm here. Many more that didn't pan out, but you can't discount it completely. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
Well both the 6z GFS and ICON are continuing the trend of being a bit more moisture east of the mountains and EPS, GEPS, and GEFS moisture has increased as well. Soundings look like they would support snow with enough moisture from I-95 west in NC and back into the SC upstate. It should be noted that more moisture definitely made it into NC this morning than any model predicted
Yeh man you’ll be asleep soon. But don’t worry, we will reel in a big em in the great month of February
Correct. Looked to me like it had a little more moisture in general than 12Z, but still no beueno east of Apps
Today gives me a lot higher confidence in Friday. I noticed on 6z gfs it has snow showers popping up in multiple locations, esp down east over a 12 hour span. It and the Icon have been consistent. Should be cold enough, where maybe some can get a trace to accumulate and get on scoreboard.
Dang we in Late February already? Good lawd ?
Not getting my hopes up but Friday’s system has the looks of one of those that can start to bring some surprises once we get 36 hours out. The cold push looks for really good on both the GFS and ICON and it’s actually coming in more from the north instead of the west. Both the models and EPS, GEFS have and uptick in moisture and 850s look good.
Looking like phase 13 bro so I think we good.
At least by the end of the EPS and GEFS, they both agree the western ridge goes up and east trough goes down, but we got that glaring low in the bay. Better than the SER taking hold and staying with how persistent it always is.
That's not an end of January prog.
Looking at all the ensembles along with the weeklies, we actually get back into a better pattern fairly quickly after this. Even Webb has mentioned that he expects this milder period to last only a few days. Even in this frame you can see the western ridge starting to go up.
Huh?
Agreed. I'm thinking Feb 1-10th is going to our best chance all winter. Anecdotally, This has also been the best timeframe imby for the last 5 years or so.
Agreed. If it doesn't amp out like that in 6/7 at month's end but rather circles a little more tightly we get to 8 much much sooner.
I’m not sure where you’re getting mid February from… especially from what Webb has been talking about. There’s really good ensemble agreement that we’re back in a favorable pattern to start the month… basically following the progression he’s talked about since late November
So the 3-4 week MJO is set in stone, but all 3 major global ensembles aren't to be believed around day 15?
I'm not in the dumps...I like warm and wet nino's. Don't you?
The mjo has a myriad of solutions with a mean just like most anything else. Most all rotate it around as depicted. Some are more closer to the CoD. It may not take the guided mean route. I doubt it takes one much further out. If anything it will be a tighter rotation, but that prong at month's end is there. Just have to hope not so stark and pointed.
That literally shows us entering phase 7 on January 27th, if you look at the time it took to go through phase 4,5,6 we would be entering phase 8 around February 2nd or 3rd. What am I missing?
If you look at depictions from about the 17th/18th out to the 23rd you can see a tighter cluster running just inside the main general forecast area. If it leans more towards that cluster then by the 23rd you see a less amped pattern emerging. So from the 23rd onward projections can be just noise at the moment.
You're back to looking at the 20-30 day prog again which is meaningless.
