0z GFS looks like another positive trend regarding your first point. Dropping into Montana this run18z GFS does 2 things that the good model runs are doing. 1) The low/wave that drops down out of SW Canada on Jan 11 slides east of Seattle instead of plopping down right on top of them, and 2) The big cutter wave that subsequently comes out of the S Plains is strong, and it pumps ridging out ahead of it that reinforces the Greenland block as it gets stuck underneath it.
12z GFS does the opposite. Drops the wave on top of Seattle and has a weak wave coming out of the S Plains into the Great Lakes
Liking what I'm seeing with that cutter. Should make the -NAO ridge go nuts.This is really close to a phase. In any, much further east and on the move.
2 feet from St. Louis to ChicagoLol 967 over lake Michigan
no doubt the run to run changes are laughable at best.good grief
someone is getting a historic storm lol (not us)
safest bet is to write off any long range stuff after this storm crescendos until we get better consensus on this beast. because how it evolves will be critical to how blocking progresses after
Well, well.?What's a couple of thousand miles among friends anyway?