The run to run changes on all of the models and the ENS guidance is laughable at best. I am hoping yall get a good storm track by the middle of the month for sure.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
1.62" of rain here from this system alone. Helps get us further from our deficit.
1.5" overnight here, bottomed out at 36.5F.
MichaelJ
Member
Temps were right on target here pretty much but the moisture amounts over performed, will be a good trend after the 20th or so with cold funneling down before a mild break after the 28th or so. I think the winter will be back loaded this year and look for a big Feb in the SE. GOD knows we are due a fab February
That was going to be massive. I would’ve liked to see that run all the way through for fun.384 hours to glory!
iGRXY
Member
12 hours*384 hours to glory!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is the first time in a while I’ve looked at fantasy land GFS runs and thought these weren’t completely crazy solutions in a general sense. (Exact timing and placement sure).
the end of the Euro is even about roll to glory.
Yeah, all the global models are different at day 10. Lots of changes in the details coming up.
Hopefully we get a final setup close to the euro:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fantasy model runs are great, but I’ve always been more of a general ingredients guy when it comes to medium-long range forecasting. To be honest, we really do have the right basic ingredients in place to get a classic southern slider just after mid-Jan (Jan 16-20th ish.).
-High-latitude blocking over both the North Pacific and Greenland/Baffin Bay. It’s pretty rare you get the -EPO and a west-based -NAO to line up like this. Iirc from my teleconnection statistics, winter storms are ~4x more likely than climo when -EPO/-NAO/-AO are present.
-Big vortex anomaly progresses from west-central N America to New England and Atlantic Canada, favoring deep push of arctic air and a suppressed storm track. Usually when these vortex anomalies slide eastward like this, there’s often an overrunning type system waiting to sneak up from behind. Also, this vortex would help to keep any system pinned down and discouraging it from being handed off to the mid-Atlantic.
-Active southern jet stream (thanks El Niño) should give us beefier waves to work with before they possibly get sheared out as they run into the Lakes + SE Canada vortex.
-A deep, fresh, and extensive snowpack will probably be over the CONUS, thanks to several prior weather systems. Favorable for keeping any Arctic air masses refrigerated on their way southward, as well as forcing pressure rises upstream (thru hydrostatic effects), keeping our parent highs strong ?
There’s a lot to like about where we’re headed day 10-14
-High-latitude blocking over both the North Pacific and Greenland/Baffin Bay. It’s pretty rare you get the -EPO and a west-based -NAO to line up like this. Iirc from my teleconnection statistics, winter storms are ~4x more likely than climo when -EPO/-NAO/-AO are present.
-Big vortex anomaly progresses from west-central N America to New England and Atlantic Canada, favoring deep push of arctic air and a suppressed storm track. Usually when these vortex anomalies slide eastward like this, there’s often an overrunning type system waiting to sneak up from behind. Also, this vortex would help to keep any system pinned down and discouraging it from being handed off to the mid-Atlantic.
-Active southern jet stream (thanks El Niño) should give us beefier waves to work with before they possibly get sheared out as they run into the Lakes + SE Canada vortex.
-A deep, fresh, and extensive snowpack will probably be over the CONUS, thanks to several prior weather systems. Favorable for keeping any Arctic air masses refrigerated on their way southward, as well as forcing pressure rises upstream (thru hydrostatic effects), keeping our parent highs strong ?
There’s a lot to like about where we’re headed day 10-14
So even though we have an opportunity here in a couple weeks, do you still think our best opportunities will come in Feb? Will we really get things to line up any better than what they are showing in day 10-14?
Most of the time we get storms then things relax, then it comes back again. I would expect Fab Feb will be good. However nothing guaranteed in southeast
It's been a LONG time since we've seen an artic airmass of this magnitude poised to plunge into the lower 48.
It seems we are settling on a solution for next week's game changer.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It seems we are settling on a solution for next week's game changer.
The table is being set for us to score in the long-term.
Wow. This monster is actually trending SE.
That's shaping up to be a very large and impactful storm. It's nice to see some interesting weather showing up.Wow. This monster is actually trending SE.
Don’t really care what GFS does with it after this, we have major cold coming down with a sure to be 50/50 low about to form to our NE and a S/W in the southwest. Time to take interest. As Webber just pointed out, the ingredients are coming together.