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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Brent said:
Yeah and honestly I think that's hurting us more than helping us. I bet if it was 20 degrees we would have gotten 10 inches... There's still a big question mark about how long it takes to overcome the dry air
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I'm sure your ratios will be really good.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I'm sure your ratios will be really good.
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I mean there's still some members that if it can really snow right away we could get 4-5 inches. I've heard it's going to be heavy snow but yeah it's just when does that happen. Some of the models also have basically a dusting so who knows

It's gonna be a super dry snow too so probably a lot of blowing and drifting
 
Stevo24 said:
I thought it was supposed to warm up after the artic blast this week.
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The pattern relaxes after next weekend for a few days as everything reshuffles. However you can already see on the ensembles what happens around the 26th-28th as the western ridge builds up. This pattern progression has been following right on what Webb has been saying.
 
CaryWx said:
It will but not until ~23rd or so and then only for a few days. Maybe not even a week. It won't be 70 though I don't think. I will then get cold with a +pna to end the month heading into Feb
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Yeah looking at the heights it doesn’t look like we make any runs at 70. We might get into the 60s a couple days,
 
CaryWx said:
It will but not until ~23rd or so and then only for a few days. Maybe not even a week. It won't be 70 though I don't think. It will then get cold with a +pna to end the month heading into Feb
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I think we could sneak in a 70-75 on the 25th or 26th the flow might come right from the Yucatan but there's going to be so much recycled polar/arctic air around that a warm return flow for us may only get us into the upper 60s
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah looking at the heights it doesn’t look like we make any runs at 70. We might get into the 60s a couple days,
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and Webb has been spot on pretty much this month.

We get the +pna, blocking (-nao) and a favorable mjo I'll take my changes with a weakened nino and active stj
 
Chazwin said:
The pattern relaxes after next weekend for a few days as everything reshuffles. However you can already see on the ensembles what happens around the 26th-28th as the western ridge builds up. This pattern progression has been following right on what Webb has been saying.
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Will there be any short warm ups in Feb or too early to tell?
 
Some of the best snows in recorded history for GA, SC, and NC have occurred in February with some being well late in the month. In fact, February is generally the month when certain areas of the generalized region (such as my own) score if it's going to happen. It is absolutely not too late for it to snow at any point during the next month.
 
Canadian is drier than icon,gfs. Something to watch. Gfs turns it into a nice noreaster,should keep us cold next weekend,then pattern washes out,re-sets
 
What looked very promising is now fading very fast...the pattern starts to collapse which doesn't allow the energy to dig southwest like we need. It's really a shame. But the good news is we warm up and get to do the whole death by million cutters again for Feb.

floop-ecmwf_full-2024011400.500h_anom.na.gif
 
DopplerWx said:
If we can’t score w this look…
View attachment 142186
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Here’s the issue it looks like to me with this… first of all I do think there is going to be a decent looking storm system in that timeframe, but on this run of the GFS and even the 0z ICON is that instead of that low along the Gulf Coast holding together, it transfers to form another low 6 hours later just south of Cape Hatteras and it starts to pull away… it brings a few hours of light snow east of the mountains. We need one of two things to happen, either the Gulf low needs to hold together and not transfer energy for about 6 hours or so later as the cold air is pushing in or we need the coastal on Wednesday to completely bomb out and slow the flow so that when that coastal develops on Friday, it’s further southwest close to Savannah and moving slower. Honestly I’ve kinda been back and forth on that system late week, in ways looks better for us than this early week system ever has, but it just looks a little off… FWIW, ------------- does think this one hold real potential for the Piedmont and Upstate… CLT area included
 
Chazwin said:
Here’s the issue it looks like to me with this… first of all I do think there is going to be a decent looking storm system in that timeframe, but on this run of the GFS and even the 0z ICON is that instead of that low along the Gulf Coast holding together, it transfers to form another low 6 hours later just south of Cape Hatteras and it starts to pull away… it brings a few hours of light snow east of the mountains. We need one of two things to happen, either the Gulf low needs to hold together and not transfer energy for about 6 hours or so later as the cold air is pushing in or we need the coastal on Wednesday to completely bomb out and slow the flow so that when that coastal develops on Friday, it’s further southwest close to Savannah and moving slower. Honestly I’ve kinda been back and forth on that system late week, in ways looks better for us than this early week system ever has, but it just looks a little off… FWIW, ------------- does think this one hold real potential for the Piedmont and Upstate… CLT area included
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Where did you see -------- say that? His vlog yesterday morning he was only talking flurries and no big deal for either system. He's more focused on getting a T to say we broke the snow drought.
 
rburrel2 said:
The west coast ridge does seem like a lock to set it in around January 27/28. All the ensembles build it up in the same place and looks to have staying power.

This may be the first winter in a while where we average below normal temperatures for the season.
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Let's hope the PNA is further east as depicted by the EPS, and not back toward Alaska like the GEFS. Otherwise, it's Groundhog Day again. I'm done with arctic highs dropping into Montana. Give me some 1040+ highs into the Great Lakes and NE.
eps_z500a_namer_61.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Let's hope the PNA is further east as depicted by the EPS, and not back toward Alaska like the GEFS. Otherwise, it's Groundhog Day again. I'm done with arctic highs dropping into Montana. Give me some 1040+ highs into the Great Lakes and NE.
eps_z500a_namer_61.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png
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I'm done with northern stream energy period. Trying to get it to drop in and dig and tilt correctly isn't going to work 9 out of 10 times. It's just like what we have now. Bad tilt and dries up east of the Apps then blows up off the coast and maybe scrapes the outer banks and NE. CAD driven storms are about the only hope in that and they require confluence off the NE coast. The only 2 big storms in 5 years (Dec 2018 and Jan 2022) were CAD storms. Where is the southern energy with Baja lows that's so prevalent in Ninos? This Nino has been broken the whole time. It didn't even rain in Oct and November. Now all the rains are mostly from cutters and severe weather from a warm juiced up Gulf.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm done with northern stream energy period. Trying to get it to drop in and dig and tilt correctly isn't going to work 9 out of 10 times. It's just like what we have now. Bad tilt and dries up east of the Apps then blows up off the coast and maybe scrapes the outer banks and NE. CAD driven storms are about the only hope in that and they require confluence off the NE coast. The only 2 big storms in 5 years (Dec 2018 and Jan 2022) were CAD storms. Where is the southern energy with Baja lows that's so prevalent in Ninos? This Nino has been broken the whole time. It didn't even rain in Oct and November. Now all the rains are mostly from cutters and severe weather from a warm juiced up Gulf.
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At least the weather has been somewhat interesting, not that that's much of a consolation.
 
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