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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Great post actually
I'll also add that I would like to see something in the middle of the two. Or even the GEFS over the EPS. When relying on northern stream energy you absolutely can't win if it's positive tilt until offshore. No way. However more west gives it time to turn negative and amplify. Surely it'll probably cut most times but you can always time that big 1040 high sliding in tandem and keep it taking the low road. At least that way gives a chance. Maybe my analysis is wrong. But I've seen so much northern stream failure lately I don't know what works now. I feel an active southern stream with energy entering Baja would work with either the EPS or GEFS but I'm not sure if that'll show up or not.Let's hope the PNA is further east as depicted by the EPS, and not back toward Alaska like the GEFS. Otherwise, it's Groundhog Day again. I'm done with arctic highs dropping into Montana. Give me some 1040+ highs into the Great Lakes and NE.
Supposedly, a +PNA is coming. That will help get S/Ws far enough south. Cold air and where energy decides to make the turn will be determined at game time. Hopefully strong Nino doing strong Nino things will keep the southern stream active. We'll see.
Kiss of death for those in the Armpits of the US, not so much for those in the Heart of Dixie.
I am fairly certain that he said the other day that he felt like that late week system was one that he felt would trend southward from what the models were showing the other day.
Great post!! It’s always a balancing act with N/S energy. It did work out for a lot of us with that big storm in mid January 2018 without CAD, but with a Lee side enhancement. The only issue with southern stream is that it can get so amped up even with good confluence and a strong CAD in place it rushes in that warm nose and we end up with an ice or sleet storm. Also you brought up a great point in your other post about the high dropping in too far east vs too far west. Dropping in over Montana does give the energy more time to dig and perhaps we can luck out and get a high moving in tandem with it. Highs dropping in over the Great Lakes concern me because it sometimes sets up too progressive a pattern. Hopefully when we see this good western ridge pop we will get somewhere between the EPS/GEFS. I would really like to see Webb’s thoughts on that… he’s basically nailed this progression to a tee all season.
Now this right here is something we can work with. IDK if we can time up a well-placed sw or not, but this is right where i want to see Arctic HP for the rest of the winter.
Just wait until we hit the +pna/-ao/-nao part of Feb
buckinbronco
Member
That’s what I’m saying, give me CAD or give me death
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We’re continuing to stay on script this winter. I’m probably surprised more than anyone that it’s this close (still).
Late Jan (ish) warm-up, then free fall into February. Right on cue, here comes the -EPO/+TNH again
Late Jan (ish) warm-up, then free fall into February. Right on cue, here comes the -EPO/+TNH again
Round 2 on the gfs
NCSNOW
Member
We got the icon an gfs throwing us some wellfare check flakes Friday. Euro little north, canadian does a energy transfer deal.
The key with the northern stream stuff is that the wave / trough has to drop down into an already existing cold trough where the warm / cold boundary is to our south (we have examples). Right now, the boundary is right on top of us so it takes magic dust to make it work east of the Apps. It’s working for TN though
What has changed since the 80's & prior?
I might believe it was AGW if the entire southern region from Dallas to the Atlantic was missing these systems.
But that can't be it.
It's like the pattern has changed so drastically that all the cold air dumps from Dallas to Birmingham.
80's even in the 90's those systems didn't just stall west of the Apps.
In fact if places were going to get cold in that general region it seemed like it would always get colder East of the Apps more so than West or it hit everyone.
Its not like the Apps just formed in the last two decades.
I never remember Dallas to Birmingham receiving more snow than the Carolinas.
What's driving this drastic change?
And who do we need to sacrifice to get it reversed?
Brick???
Serious question for you guys who have been around for sometime as I but have a general idea what's causing this?
I can't answer for Grit, but I've seen ------------- elaborate some on this. He's said for awhile now the extreme blocking in the Arctic is the cause. Each action has an equal and opposite reaction. In this case the intense blocking is causing very deep troughs in response. And the deeper they are the more narrow they are and the less likely you are to be in the right spot to cash in. But idk. I'm not sure anyone really knows what's changed, but something has.
Ron Burgundy
Member
That does it. I’m moving to Ringgold.
NCSNOW
Member
Ive been around a while in NC. You younger guys keep throwing around how great the 80s and 90s where. They werent all some crank them up to be. Yea we had a couple noteworthy artic blast (7 dayish in length) , a big snow jan 88. Really those where the highlights. I can remember way to many Above normal winter days and thinking its never gonna snow anymore. The 70s where stellar and the best decade for winter wx in NC imo was 2000-2010. Espeacilly 2000-2004. In central NC you had the crusher,Historic Catatstrophic ice stirm Dec 2002 and the Feb 28,2004 upper level thundersnow beast( 17 inches here).
Bottom line we are in a slump. They come an go down here because of our location. The rubber band will snap back the other way soon. Always does.
Bottom line we are in a slump. They come an go down here because of our location. The rubber band will snap back the other way soon. Always does.
buckinbronco
Member
A handful of solid hits for NC on the GEFS for the Friday deal. Only a couple of members show snow down into GA per usual. These totals include the upcoming system as well.
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This seems to validate the point but also show that what we're going through today is abnormally rare.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
It's rare compared to what has happened in the past but perhaps this is the norm going forward ?
Stormlover
Member
Friday
This looks like the exact same thing as the next two days.Friday
NCSNOW
Member
Next Saturday has a shot to be our first subfreezing High this winter east of Apps Weve had no trouble with cold nights but only cool days. Been a breezy winter as well
That’s not awful, but I prefer seeing the high drop in over North DakotaNow this right here is something we can work with. IDK if we can time up a well-placed sw or not, but this is right where i want to see Arctic HP for the rest of the winter.
I think that's what some are worried about. There's no way to know. None of us have actually lived through 200 years of winters in the southeast. All we have are statistics, numbers, and other various data points with which to try and put together a quasi-accurate picture of what normal should look like.
I know that during my lifetime, there have been some stinker winters. What makes things seem worse to me now, though, is that even in many of those stinker winters, there were still a few minor events. Also, in some of them, there were possibilities of bigger events that just didn't pan out.
Nowadays, it seems like it's super hard to even get a legitimate threat within a trackable time frame. Instead, we're trying to find ways for specific things to happen in order for a bona fide winter storm to even show up in the modeling....hoping that the models are missing something.
Anyway, I'm optimistic for February, about as optimistic as you can be, I guess. Maybe we'll get something to track then.
Most of the 80s were good until the last couple years, but honestly outside of the two weeks around that January 1988 storm, and the a couple weeks in late February 1989 (I’m counting what happened in December 1989 as part of the 90s) the decade really closed off on a bad note. I don’t know who said the 90s were great but they were actually very bad… after the great Dec 1989, there was nothing prior to the ‘93 Superstorm as CLT went from February 1989 to March 1993 without recording a 1”+ storm. After that outside a couple small events essentially melted the day they fell, the only real winter storms were either Ice storms like February 1994 and 1996 and the snowstorms of January 1996 and December 1997
I'd like to point out that while we all agree the 90s absolutely sucked for snow, we did have numerous ice storms then. It wasn't completely void of winter weather like now.
How’s the euro looking for the weekend system? At this point flakes flying is a win
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
The 90s were great compared to this decade so far. Two of my favorite storms were in the 90s (1992 and 1993).
I’m not sold on that simply because while this is a longer period or seems like it, if you look back the 30s and the 50s were not good at all for most of the southeast. Honestly we’re still with in 15 year of what was some very good winters for a period that started in ‘08-09 through ‘14-15… the only really bad one during that stretch was ‘11-12
When you're looking at the 30s and 50s, are you looking at just snow events or mixed events, ice storms, etc.?
Correct
I’m looking at the total picture… temps, snow, ice. Yes there were some really good storms during both those decades. I chose those two because I looked them up remembering my grandmother talk about how mild the winters were in the 30s and my mom talking about the 50s. The good thing is both of the those period were followed by the some good decades in the 40s and 60s… much like that poor stretch we had in the mid to late 90s was followed by a great stretch from ‘99-00 to ‘03-04
Yeah, I’ve admittedly not been paying as much attention the last couple winters as it’s been so nightmarish, but we’ve basically not even had any major threats to track during that timeframe, or even minor ones. It’s been awful. There have basically been no redeeming qualities. If we’re going to be snowless, I might as well move back to Florida so at least winter is a very nice time to be outside.
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It might not be true, but the bottom line is we aren’t guaranteed to be here next winter and each one that goes by is one less we get to see in our lifetime. It stinks.
Awful 
Yes, if I remember right the 1990s were the worst snow decade for Greensboro, NC and it wasn’t close. I imagine a similar story holds true for a lot of other areas, particularly areas that missed out on the Superstorm, as NC and SC largely did. The 1990s were mostly terrible. 2000-2009 were a mixed bag, but not great, either. They started off great, but the last half of the decade was terrible. The 2020s are obviously off to a nightmarish start, as well, that is rivaling the 1990s so far, and if we don’t see a good finish to this decade, this could go down as the all-time worst.
EDIT: Found this data supporting how uniquely terrible the 1990s were:
Has there ever been a winter in Greensboro with no snow?
GREENSBORO, N.C. (WGHP) – “Snow! It won’t be long before we’ll all be there with snow! Snow! …. I want to wash my hands, my face and hair with snow!” Channel your inne…
myfox8.com
Interestingly, this data also shows the 1960-1989 period was abnormally snowy and might have made expectations too high for a lot of us, but the 1990s were uniquely terrible in any case. The 2000s and 2010s were actually pretty average decades.
This is a good point to consider, true. And one that is harder to capture from just looking at snowfall statistics.