Pattern Jammin January 2024

[tennessee storm]

Yeah, Canadian is completely different. No idea which one is correct. Could easily say the one that gives us the SE ridge, but that doesn't feel like a good approach either.

Canadian. Cmc model is usually a cold bias model longer range ….

 

[Philstorm91]

Through day 12 we have 8-10+ max range for rain totals for the SE...I expect this to continue through winter along with a buried sw low.

View attachment 140045

Drought buster! This is what many of us need.

 

[Broken024]

Gfs throwing us a bone

 

[LukeBarrette]

Gfs throwing us a bone
View attachment 140046

15 days out, the pain will never end

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[Carolina Sky]

Gfs throwing us a bone
View attachment 140046

Models love to show the good stuff two weeks out and then they go poof.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Man you would think that trough has got to kick east but if it doesn’t it would be par for the course back east. @Brent you ready to move again? Seattle bunk buddies?

 

[KyloG]

Trend on the GEFS….weaker NAO, stronger Aleutian ridge and stronger western trough. ?‍

We are so screwed. ?‍

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Trend on the GEFS….weaker NAO, stronger Aleutian ridge and stronger western trough. ?‍

We are so screwed. ?‍

View attachment 140056

Looks good to me ️ ?️

 

[Mitch West]

Trend on the GEFS….weaker NAO, stronger Aleutian ridge and stronger western trough. ?‍

We are so screwed. ?‍

View attachment 140056

Sir, that's just our mid month warm up. Lol

 

[SD]

Trend on the GEFS….weaker NAO, stronger Aleutian ridge and stronger western trough. ?‍

We are so screwed. ?‍

View attachment 140056

Banger +SER pattern

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Washington state has below normal 500mb heights the entire run on both ensembles

 

[Billypg70]

Washington state has below normal 500mb heights the entire run on both ensembles

Must be nice...
If we get 3 days it feels like a helluva run...
I guess we can dream!

 

[Goose88]

Just saw this from a met here in Bama

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The Gefs completely nukes the -NAO because the -EPO is overwhelming along with +NAMT. Once we lose the block on top, our SE block will come to life because there would be nothing to mute it. Interesting run

 

[FallsLake]

The 12z Canadian surface map looked interesting at day 10. Just have to hope that any low developing to the west would be pushed due east. Basically, like the GFS is showing at day 14.

 

[KyloG]

Playing around the MJO archives below there is 3 nino's that have Jan path through 4-6. 2015, 2010 and 1983. All 3 became wintery/active after that path...so that's what I am hugging until March 1 and then it's bring on golf weather.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Below are the patterns after it left 4-6.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Playing around the MJO archives below there is 3 nino's that have Jan path through 4-6. 2015, 2010 and 1983. All 3 became wintery/active after that path...so that's what I am hugging until March 1 and then it's bring on golf weather.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Below are the patterns after it left 4-6.

View attachment 140069

Something between 83/10 seems about right to me in Feb

 

[SD]

Playing around the MJO archives below there is 3 nino's that have Jan path through 4-6. 2015, 2010 and 1983. All 3 became wintery/active after that path...so that's what I am hugging until March 1 and then it's bring on golf weather.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Below are the patterns after it left 4-6.

View attachment 140069

I've said a lot of ridiculous and negative things over the last 36 hours on here but I actually think the pattern at least on paper will look better to good in Feb. My biggest concern is where does to cold go over the next 16 days and what's available to stop the stj and lock in cold.