GoDuke
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I thought it was supposed to warm up after the artic blast this week.x.com
x.com
Heelyes
Member
It should be near 70 for the rest of January
GoDuke
Member
It changes daily
The pattern relaxes after next weekend for a few days as everything reshuffles. However you can already see on the ensembles what happens around the 26th-28th as the western ridge builds up. This pattern progression has been following right on what Webb has been saying.
It will but not until ~23rd or so and then only for a few days. Maybe not even a week. It won't be 70 though I don't think. It will then get cold with a +pna to end the month heading into Feb
Yeah looking at the heights it doesn’t look like we make any runs at 70. We might get into the 60s a couple days,
I think we could sneak in a 70-75 on the 25th or 26th the flow might come right from the Yucatan but there's going to be so much recycled polar/arctic air around that a warm return flow for us may only get us into the upper 60s
and Webb has been spot on pretty much this month.
We get the +pna, blocking (-nao) and a favorable mjo I'll take my changes with a weakened nino and active stj
Will there be any short warm ups in Feb or too early to tell?
Brent
Member
Only for 2-3 days here then it's back to the freezer although it doesn't look as extreme this time
Heelyes
Member
February is to late for snow south of the NC/SC border
December is too Early. Jan,Feb,March is too late. You do the math.
Probably just before valentines day. The last half of the month might go really hard
EastmanGAWX
Member
Some of the best snows in recorded history for GA, SC, and NC have occurred in February with some being well late in the month. In fact, February is generally the month when certain areas of the generalized region (such as my own) score if it's going to happen. It is absolutely not too late for it to snow at any point during the next month.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Mid to Late February you're right. We're all still in the game the first 2 weeks of February.
BHS1975
Member
Well it looks like the ICON wants to put down some light snow for the NC Piedmont and Sandhills on Friday… basically south of I-40.
Well 5 to 6 days away
Beleive this one has legs. Worth chase. Hopefully they dont get kicked out underneath us.
And another one! ?
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
59 degrees indoors ? Turn up the heat !
Canadian is drier than icon,gfs. Something to watch. Gfs turns it into a nice noreaster,should keep us cold next weekend,then pattern washes out,re-sets
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Less amped and south for 1/19!!!
If we can’t score w this look…
What looked very promising is now fading very fast...the pattern starts to collapse which doesn't allow the energy to dig southwest like we need. It's really a shame. But the good news is we warm up and get to do the whole death by million cutters again for Feb.
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24.3 this morning. Lowest thus far in January 2024 for me.
Here’s the issue it looks like to me with this… first of all I do think there is going to be a decent looking storm system in that timeframe, but on this run of the GFS and even the 0z ICON is that instead of that low along the Gulf Coast holding together, it transfers to form another low 6 hours later just south of Cape Hatteras and it starts to pull away… it brings a few hours of light snow east of the mountains. We need one of two things to happen, either the Gulf low needs to hold together and not transfer energy for about 6 hours or so later as the cold air is pushing in or we need the coastal on Wednesday to completely bomb out and slow the flow so that when that coastal develops on Friday, it’s further southwest close to Savannah and moving slower. Honestly I’ve kinda been back and forth on that system late week, in ways looks better for us than this early week system ever has, but it just looks a little off… FWIW, ------------- does think this one hold real potential for the Piedmont and Upstate… CLT area included
Where did you see -------- say that? His vlog yesterday morning he was only talking flurries and no big deal for either system. He's more focused on getting a T to say we broke the snow drought.
rburrel2
Member
The west coast ridge does seem like a lock to set it in around January 27/28. All the ensembles build it up in the same place and looks to have staying power.
This may be the first winter in a while where we average below normal temperatures for the season.
This may be the first winter in a while where we average below normal temperatures for the season.
Let's hope the PNA is further east as depicted by the EPS, and not back toward Alaska like the GEFS. Otherwise, it's Groundhog Day again. I'm done with arctic highs dropping into Montana. Give me some 1040+ highs into the Great Lakes and NE.
rburrel2
Member
A stationary Hudson bay vortex is the kiss of the death for us, but 360 hr+ ensembles are always gonna have that there with the a west coast ridge. So no reason to panic on that.
Overall, you can't ask for a much better look on 360 hr ensemble means.
Overall, you can't ask for a much better look on 360 hr ensemble means.
I'm done with northern stream energy period. Trying to get it to drop in and dig and tilt correctly isn't going to work 9 out of 10 times. It's just like what we have now. Bad tilt and dries up east of the Apps then blows up off the coast and maybe scrapes the outer banks and NE. CAD driven storms are about the only hope in that and they require confluence off the NE coast. The only 2 big storms in 5 years (Dec 2018 and Jan 2022) were CAD storms. Where is the southern energy with Baja lows that's so prevalent in Ninos? This Nino has been broken the whole time. It didn't even rain in Oct and November. Now all the rains are mostly from cutters and severe weather from a warm juiced up Gulf.Let's hope the PNA is further east as depicted by the EPS, and not back toward Alaska like the GEFS. Otherwise, it's Groundhog Day again. I'm done with arctic highs dropping into Montana. Give me some 1040+ highs into the Great Lakes and NE.
At least the weather has been somewhat interesting, not that that's much of a consolation.
Great post actually