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Pattern Jammin January 2024

SD said:
Strat pv really takes a beating on the op gfs and the geps mean
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Yeah, that's interesting. The EMCF extended ensemble suddenly picked up on this same mid-month time frame yesterday too.
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I know I mentioned the other day that it wouldn't surprise me if I20 zeros out this year. And it still won't if that blocking doesn't materialize as strong as shown. If it does however it wouldn't surprise me to see I20 and coastal regions score before the I85 crowd. Seems like that's how Jan 2018 went down during that great 2 weeks. Charleston and coastal regions first then the upstate. Leaving a painful snowhole in the Midlands. Although I don't remember that period being caused by a -NAO though.
 
Looks like we'll need to be patient for that elusive boardwide crush job. In the meantime, I tend to think our best shot at snowfall the next few weeks will be setups that won't be modeled until 2-3 days out. Trailing energy behind a cutter or Miller B, or light overrunning on the backside of a retreating HP - small events that can produce 1-3"/2-4" on a smaller sub-regional scale. It'll happen just have to be patient and let things play out. :)
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I know I mentioned the other day that it wouldn't surprise me if I20 zeros out this year. And it still won't if that blocking doesn't materialize as strong as shown. If it does however it wouldn't surprise me to see I20 and coastal regions score before the I85 crowd. Seems like that's how Jan 2018 went down during that great 2 weeks. Charleston and coastal regions first then the upstate. Leaving a painful snowhole in the Midlands. Although I don't remember that period being caused by a -NAO though.
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There was a -NAO during that time period but the biggest reason behind the deep cold was just how far south the PV pushed to suppress the storm track and being that we were in a La Niña there was no STJ to work with. While I lean towards I-20 and possibly at least the NC coast scoring once this year, I have feeling that with the active STJ of an El Niño, we are going to end up with a strong CAD Miller B or hybrid storm while the -NAO and blocking becomes established and there’s still a slightly -PNA
 
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